By Adnan Adams Mohammed
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana has unanimously voted to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 14.0%, citing the need to safeguard price stability while navigating heightened global uncertainty caused by renewed geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.
The decision was announced following the committee’s 131st regular meeting, held from July 20 to 22, 2026, where members reviewed global and domestic macroeconomic developments and evaluated risks to the country’s inflation and growth outlook.
Addressing journalists during the policy announcement, the central bank highlighted that renewed conflict in the Middle East has reignited volatility across global energy markets, leading to supply chain disruptions and a rebound in crude oil prices above $85 per barrel.
“The easing of geopolitical tensions around mid-June proved short-lived. The renewed escalation of the conflict has led to another closure of the Strait of Hormuz and triggered instability in energy markets,” the MPC statement revealed. “Disinflation trends in several countries have stalled as energy prices have risen sharply, prompting many central banks to pause their monetary policy easing cycles in response to emerging inflationary risks.”
Despite these headwinds, global economic activity has shown resilience, supported by substantial investments in artificial intelligence within the United States and China, leading the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to project global growth at 3.0% for July 2026.
Strong Real Sector Growth and Credit Expansion
On the domestic front, the central bank painted a picture of robust economic momentum, driven by strong growth in the services and industry sectors. Real GDP expanded by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 6.2% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
Furthermore, the Bank’s Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) recorded a year-on-year growth of 13.4% in May 2026, compared to 4.4% in May 2025. This expansion was further bolstered by significant easing in credit conditions across the banking sector. The benchmark 91-day Treasury bill yield dropped to 5.3% in June 2026 from 14.7% a year earlier, while average commercial bank lending rates fell to 15.6% from 27.0%.
In response to cheaper borrowing costs, private sector credit growth expanded sharply by 41.2% year-on-year in June 2026 (34.1% in real terms), compared to 8.6% recorded in June 2025.
“The latest confidence surveys conducted in June 2026 showed positive consumer and business sentiments, supported by optimism about growth prospects, subdued inflation, and declining lending rates,” the committee noted.
Inflation Uptick Driven by Base Effects and Transport Costs
Headline inflation saw a moderate uptick, rising to 5.3% in June 2026 from 3.7% in May 2026, driven by higher food (3.9%) and non-food (6.3%) prices following temporary hikes in transport fares and base effects. However, the MPC emphasized that inflation remains well below the lower bound of the central bank’s medium-term target band (8\% \pm 2\%).
“The July forecast remains broadly unchanged from the previous MPC round, with headline inflation projected to rise gradually into the target band,” the MPC stated. “Potential upward adjustment in utility tariffs, together with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated increase in crude oil prices, present upside risks to the inflation outlook.”
Robust External Sector and Banking Solvency
Ghana’s external position remained firm, supported by high export earnings from cocoa and gold. The trade surplus widened significantly to $8.8 billion in the first half of 2026, up from $5.8 billion in the same period in 2025, while the current account surplus rose to $5.1 billion.
Gross International Reserves stood at $12.9 billion at the end of June 2026 equivalent to 5.0 months of import cover providing an adequate buffer against external shocks despite higher energy import costs. On the currency market, the Ghana Cedi experienced a year-to-date depreciation of 9.5% against the US dollar as of July 17, 2026, after facing demand pressures in May.
The banking sector also demonstrated strength, with total industry assets expanding by 30.7% to GH¢502.4 billion, while the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) doubled to 20.4% from 10.6% in June 2025. Non-performing loans (NPLs) improved, declining to 16.1% from 23.1% over the same period.
Unanimous Stance to Hold Rate
In concluding its deliberations, the committee determined that maintaining the policy rate at 14.0% balances the need to anchor inflation expectations while supporting ongoing recovery in the real sector.
“Given these considerations, the committee, by a unanimous decision, maintained the monetary policy rate at 14.0%,” the central bank announced. “The committee judged that the current policy stance remains appropriate to guide inflation into the medium-term target band while allowing time to assess the evolving geopolitical developments and their potential impact on the domestic economy.”
The next regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled for September 22 to 24, 2026, where the central bank will re-evaluate its stance based on new economic data.
