News Guide Africa

Tag: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

  • Understanding Ghana’s $1.7bn Gold Trading Losses: Policy cost, not stolen cash

    Understanding Ghana’s $1.7bn Gold Trading Losses: Policy cost, not stolen cash

    Following widespread public debate over the financial performance of the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) and the Bank of Ghana (BoG), economic analysts are urging citizens to distinguish between policy-related accounting adjustments and direct financial theft.

    The conversation surrounding Ghana’s central bank gold purchasing initiatives reached a fever pitch following reports referencing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, which cited approximately $1.7 billion in cumulative losses associated with state gold trading strategies.

    However, closer inspection of the data reveals a far more nuanced economic picture.

    Demystifying the $1.7 Billion Accounting Cost

    According to page 10 of the recent IMF report, the reported $1.7 billion figure does not represent stolen funds or direct cash missing from state coffers. Instead, the loss reflects “quasi-fiscal” or policy-related accounting costs.

    “Losses accrued on gold trades are a combination of service and assay fees paid to GoldBod, discounts on gold sold to off-takers, and most importantly, exchange rate losses from the spread between the forex bureau rate paid to purchase gold and the cedi reference rate used for BoG accounting,” stated policy expert Dr. Razak Kojo Opoku in an objective assessment published this week.

    Dr. Opoku explained that quasi-fiscal costs are routine government trade-offs designed to achieve larger socio-economic benefits.

    “Think of it like the GH¢ 207 million spent on fertilizer subsidies to offer a 50% price cut to farmers, the GH¢ 25 billion spent on the financial sector clean-up to protect depositors, or fuel tax cuts at the pump,” Dr. Opoku noted. “These are deliberate accounting decisions made to absorb shocks on behalf of the public, not money lost to corruption. It is unfair to solely blame GoldBod when the central bank’s accounting framework is central to the picture.”

    Evaluating Core Objectives: Reserves, Cedi, and Smuggling

    GoldBod was established with three primary mandates: boosting national foreign exchange reserves, stabilizing the cedi, and curbing illegal gold smuggling.

    ● Foreign Exchange Reserves: Ghana’s national reserves have surged significantly, gaining an estimated $10 billion through central bank gold accumulation programs. Analysts argue that incurring a $1.7 billion accounting cost to secure $10 billion in liquid reserve buffers represents a defensible strategic trade-off, though experts question whether a less costly alternative exists.

    ● Cedi Stability: The cedi has experienced relative stability against the US Dollar and other major foreign currencies since GoldBod’s interventions matured. However, stakeholders note that further structural work is needed to drive the exchange rate down toward a target of GH¢ 5 to $1.

    ● Curbing Smuggling: The IMF estimates that Ghana lost roughly $11.4 billion to illicit gold smuggling between 2019 and 2024, with reported Ghanaian exports and United Arab Emirates (UAE) recorded imports showing a discrepancy exceeding $4 billion.

    “As Ghanaian citizens, we must ask ourselves which issue demands greater national concern: a $1.7 billion accounting cost incurred to build reserves, or the $11.4 billion lost directly to unrecorded gold smuggling over five years?” Dr. Opoku questioned.

     

     

     

    Environmental Concerns and the Galamsey Threat

    Despite progress on trade balances, major questions remain regarding GoldBod’s environmental impact. Chief among public concerns is whether GoldBod’s purchasing network inadvertently incentivizes illegal small-scale mining (galamsey).

    “Critical questions must be answered by GoldBod management,” Dr. Opoku emphasized. “What stringent verification measures are in place to ensure GoldBod does not buy gold from companies or individuals engaged in galamsey? Is the expansion of official buying channels inadvertently fueling illegal mining on the ground?”

    The Legacy of Gold-for-Oil (G4O)

    The evaluation comes on the heels of the formal termination of the Gold-for-Oil (G4O) program in March 2025. Designed to ease forex pressure and stabilize domestic pump prices, Bank of Ghana records show G4O incurred direct financial losses of roughly GH¢ 2.43 billion over its run.

    Combined, the Gold-for-Oil (G4O) and Gold-for-Reserves (G4R) initiatives registered a total net trading loss of approximately GH¢ 5.7 billion in 2024 alone.

    As Ghana navigates its post-G4O landscape, policymakers face a critical decision: should the country revert to legacy mechanisms like G4O and G4R, or refine the operations of the Ghana Gold Board to eliminate accounting losses while protecting environmental standards? While the $1.7 billion IMF loss reflects the high price of currency intervention, citizens and analysts alike agree that permanent success depends on stopping galamsey at the source and closing the $11.4 billion smuggling drain for good.

     

  • Understanding Ghana’s new Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS) ….A simple guide to ITAS — what it is, why it matters, and what it means for every Ghanaian taxpayer

    Understanding Ghana’s new Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS) ….A simple guide to ITAS — what it is, why it matters, and what it means for every Ghanaian taxpayer

    Every day, thousands of Ghanaians benefit from the roads we use, the hospitals we visit, the schools our children attend, and the public services that keep our communities running. Much of this infrastructure and these services are funded through tax revenue. Yet, for many taxpayers, the process of paying taxes has not always matched the smooth, modern services those taxes help provide.

    Consider Akosua, a fabric trader at Makola Market. She wants to do the right thing: register her business, keep accurate records, and set aside money to meet her tax obligations. However, when it is time to file, she finds herself moving between different counters and systems: one process for Value Added Tax (VAT), another for withholding tax obligations. Each process is disconnected from the next, with no single place to view what she owes or what she has already paid.

    Akosua’s experience reflects a wider challenge the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) has identified and is addressing through the introduction of a new digital platform: the Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS).

    What is ITAS?

    In simple terms, ITAS is a single digital platform that brings together the core functions of tax administration, including taxpayer registration, filing of returns, payment processing, compliance management, audit, enforcement, and reporting.

    Think of it like the difference between keeping your money in several different accounts at several different banks, each with its own passbook and its own queue, versus having one account that shows you everything at a glance. That is the shift ITAS represents for tax administration in Ghana.

    Historically, tax administration within GRA’s Domestic Tax Revenue Division (DTRD) relied on manual processes and several standalone legacy systems. Although these systems served their purpose for many years, they also created fragmented taxpayer data, limited integration, duplicated processes, and operational inefficiencies. These challenges affected both GRA’s ability to make timely, informed decisions and taxpayers’ experience in meeting their obligations. ITAS replaces this fragmented domestic tax administration landscape with one modern, scalable platform and gives every taxpayer a single profile for managing their tax affairs.

    A Journey Years in the Making

    ITAS is not a sudden idea. It is the product of a long and deliberate process shaped by GRA’s broader digital transformation agenda and its strategic ambition to become a world-class revenue administration. A key objective of this agenda is to support Ghana’s goal of increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio to 20%.

    The journey began in 2019, when GRA initiated the procurement of two separate systems: one for general tax administration and another dedicated to VAT. Vendors submitted proposals for both systems, and the required approvals were secured from the Public Procurement Authority. However, during the evaluation stage, a recommendation emerged that changed the course of the project: instead of building two separate systems, GRA should adopt the global best practice of implementing a single, comprehensive platform covering all tax types.

    GRA accepted the recommendation. The two original tenders were cancelled, and the Authority partnered with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to jointly develop the requirements for one unified system. Together, GRA and the IMF produced comprehensive Terms of Reference for a Commercial-Off-The-Shelf ITAS solution, which was reviewed and approved by GRA’s Top Management. The proposed system provided for online filing and payment, paperless and fully automated processes, multi-channel service delivery, real-time data processing, data-driven decision-making, and risk-based compliance management based on taxpayers’ compliance history.

    This approach builds on a model GRA has already proven elsewhere in the Authority. The Customs Division operates the Integrated Customs Management System (ICUMS), which streamlines Customs processes, reduces costs, and improves trade facilitation. In a similar way, ITAS is DTRD’s end-to-end system for domestic tax administration, designed to replace fragmented, manual processes with one integrated platform. As ITAS matures, GRA envisions closer integration between domestic tax and customs operations, bringing the two systems into greater alignment over time.

    Why ITAS Matters

    ITAS matters because an automated, integrated tax system strengthens how a country collects revenue, serves taxpayers, and manages compliance.

    GRA’s broader digitization drive has been building toward this moment. This includes the modernization of its technology infrastructure and data centre, the adoption of Microsoft 365 productivity tools across its workforce, and the move toward a Cashless GRA through Ghana.gov. Cashless goes beyond Ghana.gov. ITAS is the centrepiece of this transformation: a system designed to help GRA support the objective of achieving a 20% tax-to-GDP ratio, a benchmark that reflects a tax administration operating at full strength.

    Every gap an outdated or disconnected system leaves behind is a gap in revenue collection and that gap has real costs. It can mean slower services for taxpayers, missed opportunities to detect fraud or non-compliance, and less money available for the schools, hospitals, and infrastructure projects that depend on government revenue. An integrated system closes that gap. It gives GRA real-time visibility into compliance across the country, supports better risk assessment and more targeted enforcement, and reduces the manual processes that can introduce errors or delayed decisions.

    ITAS is also designed to be taxpayer-centric, giving every business and individual the ability to file, pay, and track their obligations digitally through web portals, mobile applications, and other self-service channels without needing to visit a GRA office in person for every transaction. This reduces the time taxpayers spend complying with their obligations and makes meeting them easier than avoiding them.

    How ITAS Works

    ITAS is built around a set of core features agreed jointly by GRA and the IMF, each addressing a specific weakness in the old way of doing things.

    Taxpayer-centred, self-service design. ITAS enables taxpayers to file returns and make payments electronically, access their tax information through web portals and mobile platforms, and reduce reliance on manual paperwork and in-person visits.

    Paperless and fully automated processes. By removing manual steps wherever possible, ITAS reduces the risk of error, speeds up processing, and gives GRA timely, accurate data to support its decisions.

    Multi-channel service delivery. Taxpayers are not limited to a single way of interacting with GRA. ITAS supports multiple digital channels, so taxpayers can choose what works best for them.

    Real-time data processing. Transactions are processed and analyzed as they happen, rather than in batches after the fact, enabling faster, better-informed decision-making.

    Data-driven decision-making. ITAS allows GRA to analyze patterns across the system and make more informed choices about tax policy, risk, and enforcement priorities.

    Risk-based compliance management. Rather than treating every taxpayer the same, ITAS segments taxpayers according to their risk profile and compliance history, allowing GRA to focus enforcement attention where it is genuinely needed, while reducing disruption for compliant taxpayers.

    Looking ahead, a fully implemented ITAS is expected to integrate with the National Identification Authority for individual registration how? and the Office of the Registrar of Companies (ORC) for the registration of companies and organisations. It will also support core functions such as returns processing, taxpayer accounting, revenue accounting, refunds, case management, audit, objections, and appeals.

    Plans are also in place to eventually connect ITAS with GRA’s other digital initiatives, including E-VAT, E-Commerce, Stamp Duty, and a central data warehouse. Over time, these connections will help bring the different strands of Ghana’s tax administration into a single, coherent picture.

    Where Things Stand

    ITAS is being rolled out in carefully managed phases, beginning with a pilot involving selected taxpayers and GRA offices.

    The pilot phase commenced on 1 April 2026 at the Kaneshie Taxpayer Service Centre. Selected taxpayers from the Large Taxpayer Office were later onboarded onto the system. The current phase covers the filing and payment of four tax types: Pay As You Earn (PAYE), Value Added Tax (VAT), VAT Withholding, and Withholding VAT.

    This phased approach is deliberate. Rather than moving the entire country onto a new system overnight, GRA is testing, learning, and refining ITAS with a defined group of taxpayers and tax types before expanding further. This carefully staged rollout, similar in discipline to the implementation of ICUMS, will help ensure that ITAS remains a stable and effective system for domestic tax administration.

    What This Means for You

    If you are a taxpayer currently within the pilot’s scope for example, at the Kaneshie Taxpayer Service Centre or as part of the Large Taxpayer Office ITAS already means a more modern, self-service way of meeting your tax obligations.

    If you are not yet part of the pilot, ITAS is still relevant to you. As the rollout expands, more tax types and more taxpayers will be brought onto the platform. The system is designed so that every taxpayer in Ghana can eventually manage their tax affairs through one unified system, rather than through the fragmented processes of the past.

    It is worth noting that ITAS is a tool for administering tax more efficiently. It is not a mechanism for introducing new taxes. What it changes is how your existing obligations are filed, paid, and tracked, not what you owe.

    How to Prepare

    You do not need to wait for the full rollout to start preparing. Taxpayers can take the following practical steps now:

    ● Make sure your taxpayer registration details with GRA are accurate and complete.

    ● Familiarise yourself with GRA’s existing digital channels, as these form the foundation on which ITAS builds. – All taxpayers file on GITMIS currently

    ● If you fall within one of the tax types currently covered by the pilot — PAYE, VAT, VAT Withholding, or Withholding VAT — take time to understand the new filing and payment process.

    ● Contact your nearest Taxpayer Service Centre for assistance where needed.

    ● Refer to the ITAS User Manual on the Authority’s website and tutorial videos on the GRA YouTube channel for additional guidance.

     

    The success of ITAS will depend on the collective support, adaptability, and commitment of both GRA staff and taxpayers as the Authority transitions into a fully digital tax environment. A system designed to make compliance easier will deliver its full value only when taxpayers actively engage with it.

    Ultimately, taxation is not simply an obligation handed down from above. It is a shared mechanism through which a country builds its future. ITAS represents a significant milestone in GRA’s transformation journey and a meaningful step toward a more efficient, transparent, and taxpayer-centred tax administration system for every Ghanaian.

    By: Public Education & Media Relations Unit

    Ghana Revenue Authority

     

  • Beyond the Counter: Ghana’s new digital system is reshaping the taxpayer experience

    Beyond the Counter: Ghana’s new digital system is reshaping the taxpayer experience

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

    Every morning at Makola Market, trader Akosua Mensah opens her fabric stall surrounded by the vibrant buzz of Accra’s commercial heart.

    She takes pride in doing business the right way, paying her suppliers, keeping manual ledgers, and striving to meet her national obligations. Yet, until recently, fulfilling those obligations meant stepping into a maze of fragmented bureaucracy.

    “In the past, ensuring full tax compliance meant hours spent traveling between different offices and managing stacks of paper files,” Mensah recalls. “One process for VAT, another for withholding tax each handled at different counters with no single place to see what you owed or what you had paid. It took critical time away from running the stall.”

    Mensah’s long-standing frustration points to a systemic challenge the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) is now actively dismantling. Through the introduction of its Integrated Tax Administration System (ITAS), the GRA is executing a fundamental shift: moving away from decades of disconnected legacy processes and toward a unified, taxpayer-centric digital portal.

    The multi-year journey to ITAS reflects a deliberate drive toward modernizing Ghana’s domestic tax landscape, supporting the national ambition to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 20%. Rather than building separate systems for different tax types, the GRA partnered with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to procure a single, commercial-off-the-shelf platform capable of managing the full taxpayer lifecycle from registration and filing to auditing and refunds.

    “It is the digital equivalent of consolidating multiple bank accounts across different branches into a single online view,” explains a spokesperson for the GRA’s Public Education & Media Relations Unit. “ITAS replaces a fragmented landscape with one secure profile for every taxpayer, bringing real-time transparency to domestic tax administration.”

    The platform is currently undergoing a phased rollout. Following an initial launch at the Kaneshie Taxpayer Service Centre on 1 April 2026, the pilot was expanded to include selected entities within the Large Taxpayer Office, initially focusing on four key tax types: Pay As You Earn (PAYE), Value Added Tax (VAT), VAT Withholding, and Withholding VAT.

    For tax administrators, the upgrade provides critical visibility into compliance trends and risk management, allowing enforcement teams to operate with data-driven precision rather than broad administrative sweeps.

    “By adopting risk-based compliance and real-time data processing, ITAS allows us to focus our resources where risk is genuinely high, while providing a seamless, paperless experience for compliant citizens,” says a senior official with the GRA’s Domestic Tax Revenue Division.

    Crucially, tax authorities are emphasizing that this technological evolution alters the delivery mechanism of public finance, not the underlying fiscal policy.

    “It is critical for the public to understand that ITAS does not introduce new taxes or increase existing rates,” clarifies a Lead Project Coordinator for the ITAS Implementation Team. “It simply modernises how existing taxes are filed, paid, and tracked. As we gradually expand the pilot to integrate with the National Identification Authority and the Office of the Registrar of Companies, ITAS will set a new benchmark for public sector efficiency.”

    Back at Makola Market, the human impact of that efficiency is clear. For taxpayers like Mensah, the transition to self-service digital channels means fewer hours lost to queues and more time spent contributing to the local economy.

    “A simplified platform where we can check balances and file returns online gives small business owners clarity,” Mensah says. “When the process is straightforward, doing your part for the country feels less like a burden and more like a shared investment.”

     

  • Ghana’s debt outlook improves to moderate risk after IMF rating upgrade

    Ghana’s debt outlook improves to moderate risk after IMF rating upgrade

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

    Ghana’s economic recovery has reached a major milestone after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded the country’s debt vulnerability profile, declaring its risk of debt distress has eased from high to moderate.

    According to the Fund’s latest Country Report, sustained fiscal discipline, exchange rate stability, and an improved medium-term debt outlook under the ongoing Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program warranted removing earlier analyst cautions and officially adjusting the risk rating.

    During the fifth review under the ECF, IMF staff had initially applied judgment to maintain a high-risk rating despite all primary debt indicators falling below their respective debt thresholds. At the time, analysts noted that lingering uncertainties around foreign exchange rates and volatile global gold prices warranted a conservative stance.

    However, the IMF confirmed that stronger economic performance and reduced market volatility have justified aligning the rating with mechanical indicator signals.

    “With continuing macroeconomic and exchange rate stability, and a clearer fiscal outlook, Staff now proposes to remove this judgement and upgrade Ghana to moderate risk of debt distress, consistent with the mechanical signal,” the IMF stated in its Country Report.

    Despite the positive reclassification, the Fund cautioned Ghanaian authorities against complacency, emphasizing that buffers remain tight and fiscal vigilance is essential.

    “Space under the external debt-service-to-revenue ratio remains limited,” the report highlighted, adding that debt vulnerabilities remain elevated. “The DSA highlights that debt dynamics remain sensitive to external shocks given Ghana’s reliance on gold and other commodity exports.”

    The IMF further warned that global trade shifts or commodity price slumps could quickly re-expose structural weaknesses.

    “Stress tests show that adverse export and commodity price shocks could push both solvency and liquidity indicators above their thresholds for a prolonged period. The exchange rate remains a key transmission channel, given the substantial share of FX-denominated external debt and non-resident holdings of domestic debt,” the Fund noted.

    Looking forward, the multilateral lender stressed that structural fiscal reforms, export diversification, and prudent debt management are vital to safeguarding Ghana’s economic gains and maintaining long-term stability.

    “Contingent liabilities represent another key source of downside risk: fiscal risks from the energy sector, financial sector recapitalization needs, and quasi-fiscal activities remain particularly salient,” the report observed. “Completing restructuring negotiations with residual external commercial creditors and signing the remaining bilateral agreements also remain a priority.”

     

  • Ghana secures final US$371mn disbursement ….as it officially completes IMF ECF Program

    Ghana secures final US$371mn disbursement ….as it officially completes IMF ECF Program

     In a historic milestone for West Africa’s second-largest economy, Ghana has officially brought its US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to a successful conclusion.

    The IMF Executive Board formally completed the sixth and final review of the 39-month arrangement, paving the way for an immediate final disbursement of SDR 265.9 million approximately US$371 million. The total financial support received under the program now stands at the full US$3 billion mark.

    Following the completion of the bailout, Ghana has transitioned to a non-financing, 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) to anchor ongoing structural reforms and signal continued policy discipline to global credit markets.

    From Crisis to Stability: A Rapid Economic Turnaround

    Ghana entered the IMF agreement in May 2023 amid record inflation, severe currency depreciation, and a looming debt crisis. Over the course of the 39-month program, rigorous fiscal consolidation, domestic debt restructuring, and prudent monetary policy helped steady the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals.

    According to the IMF, Ghana’s key economic metrics have dramatically improved:

    ● Inflation: Dropped sharply from peak crisis levels down to single-digit territory.

    ● Economic Growth: Accelerated past 6 percent annually, driven by strong performances in mining, agriculture, and services.

    ● Foreign Exchange Reserves: Nearly doubled to approximately US$14.5 billion, representing nearly six months of import cover.

    ● Fiscal Position: Shifted from severe deficits to a primary balance surplus.

    What the Leaders and Experts Say

    International Monetary Fund (IMF)

    Addressing the completion of the final review, the Executive Board commended Ghanaian authorities for their commitment to reform despite global and domestic headwinds.

    “Ghana’s performance under its ECF-supported program has been broadly satisfactory. Sustained reform efforts combined with favorable commodity developments have delivered substantial gains in macroeconomic stabilization and debt sustainability. The risk of debt distress has returned to moderate.”

     

    Government Administration

    Government officials hailed the exit from the bailout as a triumph of fiscal discipline and recalibrated economic management. Speaking on behalf of the administration, Felix Kwakye Ofosu (MP), Minister of State for Government Communications, highlighted the significance of transitioning to the non-financial PCI framework:

    “This milestone reflects improved fiscal performance, normalized relations with global creditors, and renewed market confidence. Inflation has reduced significantly, the cedi has strengthened, and sovereign credit ratings have upgraded five distinct levels out of restricted default. The PCI signals our unyielding commitment to prudent policy to private investors and development partners without requiring further borrowing.”

     

    Financial Market Analysts

    Economic analysts note that while the completion of the program boosts investor sentiment, maintaining long-term discipline will be critical as Ghana navigates its post-bailout era.

    “Securing the final US$371 million tranche and successfully exiting the financing arrangement is a huge vote of confidence,” noted Patrick Abankwa, a senior financial analyst and investment advisor. “However, the transition to the Policy Coordination Instrument means Ghana must rely on its own fiscal guardrails, domestic revenue mobilization, and sustained spending controls to keep borrowing costs low and prevent a relapse into debt distress.”

     

    Looking Ahead: The Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI)

    Unlike the ECF arrangement, the Policy Coordination Instrument involves no loan disbursements. Instead, it serves as a policy policy anchor, providing IMF monitoring and technical expertise to help Ghana achieve “Investment Grade” credit standing and maintain debt sustainability.

    With gross international reserves at historical highs and key credit rating agencies issuing positive outlooks, Ghana enters its post-IMF bailout era with renewed optimism and enhanced economic resilience.

     

  • Policy Rate held at 14% … amid rising global energy pressures and robust domestic growth

    Policy Rate held at 14% … amid rising global energy pressures and robust domestic growth

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed 

     

    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana has unanimously voted to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 14.0%, citing the need to safeguard price stability while navigating heightened global uncertainty caused by renewed geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

    The decision was announced following the committee’s 131st regular meeting, held from July 20 to 22, 2026, where members reviewed global and domestic macroeconomic developments and evaluated risks to the country’s inflation and growth outlook.

    Addressing journalists during the policy announcement, the central bank highlighted that renewed conflict in the Middle East has reignited volatility across global energy markets, leading to supply chain disruptions and a rebound in crude oil prices above $85 per barrel.

    “The easing of geopolitical tensions around mid-June proved short-lived. The renewed escalation of the conflict has led to another closure of the Strait of Hormuz and triggered instability in energy markets,” the MPC statement revealed. “Disinflation trends in several countries have stalled as energy prices have risen sharply, prompting many central banks to pause their monetary policy easing cycles in response to emerging inflationary risks.”

     

    Despite these headwinds, global economic activity has shown resilience, supported by substantial investments in artificial intelligence within the United States and China, leading the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to project global growth at 3.0% for July 2026.

    Strong Real Sector Growth and Credit Expansion

    On the domestic front, the central bank painted a picture of robust economic momentum, driven by strong growth in the services and industry sectors. Real GDP expanded by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 6.2% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

    Furthermore, the Bank’s Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) recorded a year-on-year growth of 13.4% in May 2026, compared to 4.4% in May 2025. This expansion was further bolstered by significant easing in credit conditions across the banking sector. The benchmark 91-day Treasury bill yield dropped to 5.3% in June 2026 from 14.7% a year earlier, while average commercial bank lending rates fell to 15.6% from 27.0%.

    In response to cheaper borrowing costs, private sector credit growth expanded sharply by 41.2% year-on-year in June 2026 (34.1% in real terms), compared to 8.6% recorded in June 2025.

    “The latest confidence surveys conducted in June 2026 showed positive consumer and business sentiments, supported by optimism about growth prospects, subdued inflation, and declining lending rates,” the committee noted.

     

    Inflation Uptick Driven by Base Effects and Transport Costs

    Headline inflation saw a moderate uptick, rising to 5.3% in June 2026 from 3.7% in May 2026, driven by higher food (3.9%) and non-food (6.3%) prices following temporary hikes in transport fares and base effects. However, the MPC emphasized that inflation remains well below the lower bound of the central bank’s medium-term target band (8\% \pm 2\%).

    “The July forecast remains broadly unchanged from the previous MPC round, with headline inflation projected to rise gradually into the target band,” the MPC stated. “Potential upward adjustment in utility tariffs, together with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated increase in crude oil prices, present upside risks to the inflation outlook.”

     

    Robust External Sector and Banking Solvency

    Ghana’s external position remained firm, supported by high export earnings from cocoa and gold. The trade surplus widened significantly to $8.8 billion in the first half of 2026, up from $5.8 billion in the same period in 2025, while the current account surplus rose to $5.1 billion.

    Gross International Reserves stood at $12.9 billion at the end of June 2026 equivalent to 5.0 months of import cover providing an adequate buffer against external shocks despite higher energy import costs. On the currency market, the Ghana Cedi experienced a year-to-date depreciation of 9.5% against the US dollar as of July 17, 2026, after facing demand pressures in May.

    The banking sector also demonstrated strength, with total industry assets expanding by 30.7% to GH¢502.4 billion, while the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) doubled to 20.4% from 10.6% in June 2025. Non-performing loans (NPLs) improved, declining to 16.1% from 23.1% over the same period.

    Unanimous Stance to Hold Rate

    In concluding its deliberations, the committee determined that maintaining the policy rate at 14.0% balances the need to anchor inflation expectations while supporting ongoing recovery in the real sector.

    “Given these considerations, the committee, by a unanimous decision, maintained the monetary policy rate at 14.0%,” the central bank announced. “The committee judged that the current policy stance remains appropriate to guide inflation into the medium-term target band while allowing time to assess the evolving geopolitical developments and their potential impact on the domestic economy.”

     

    The next regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled for September 22 to 24, 2026, where the central bank will re-evaluate its stance based on new economic data.

     

  • Ghana beats deadlines to pay over US$2.1bn in Eurobond debt since Jan. 2025

    Ghana beats deadlines to pay over US$2.1bn in Eurobond debt since Jan. 2025

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

    In a major development that signals a dramatic turnaround for the nation’s financial standing, the Government of Ghana has successfully settled a massive US$700 million Eurobond obligation well ahead of its scheduled deadline.

    The transaction marks one of the country’s largest single debt-service payments since it began restructuring its external bonds following the highly publicized 2022 default.

    According to an official statement issued by the Ministry of Finance, the strategic payment was fully executed and completed on Thursday, July 2, 2026.

    With this latest ahead-of-schedule settlement, Ghana has now injected a staggering total of US$2.1 billion back to Eurobond holders since January 2025 under the strict terms of its Eurobond Debt Exchange Programme.

    Breaking Down the Figures

    Financial analysts have closely watched the transaction, which represents a massive chunk of liquid capital. The latest US$700 million package is mathematically split into two key components:

    ● US$525.2 million allocated purely for direct principal repayments.

    ● US$174.8 million utilized to clear accrued interest payments.

    Significantly, the Ministry of Finance emphasized that the massive transaction did not disrupt local currency stability. The entire process was handled smoothly through the government’s carefully planned internal financing arrangements.

    Crucially, officials confirmed the payment was executed “without undue pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves,” a feat that signals vastly improved liquidity conditions and stabilizing macroeconomic indicators across the board.

    Restoring Defiant Investor Confidence

    The structured repayment program was originally engineered to completely replace the high-yield, unsustainable terms of Ghana’s legacy Eurobonds after the country launched a comprehensive external debt overhaul. By meeting and systematically beating these restructured deadlines, the government is sending an aggressive, clear message to international capitals and credit rating agencies.

    “The settlement reduces Ghana’s outstanding Eurobond debt and strengthens investor confidence in the country’s ability to manage its obligations,” the Ministry stated confidently.

     

    The Treasury further added that the proactive payment demonstrates a “steadfast commitment to disciplined public financial management and long-term macroeconomic stability.”

    The Path to Stabilization

    Ghana’s broader economy has shown remarkably steady signs of stabilization over the past several months. Inflation, which peaked at highly disruptive, volatile double-digit levels throughout 2024 and early 2025, has progressively eased under the strict anchor of an ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported program.

    While the Ministry of Finance did not publicly disclose the exact remaining balance left on the restructured Eurobonds, it took steps to reassure the local public that the country’s treasury is safe. Moving forward, the government will continue to enforce strict fiscal buffers to sustainably finance the nation’s ongoing development agenda without sinking back into unsustainable borrowing cycles.

    Closing out the official briefing, the ministry expressed profound gratitude to the local population for enduring the worst of the economic squeeze. The statement warmly thanked the good people of Ghana “for their continued patience, support, and confidence” throughout what has undoubtedly been a challenging but ultimately rewarding restructuring process.

     

  • Ghana declares sovereign milestone, rejects future bailouts

    Ghana declares sovereign milestone, rejects future bailouts

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    In a historic address before Parliament, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson declared a definitive end to Ghana’s era of financial dependence, asserting that the nation has officially turned the page on its history of seeking emergency economic lifelines.

    Following the successful completion of the country’s 16th emergency credit program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dr. Forson announced that Ghana is shifting permanently away from financial rescue loans, moving from a status of economic vulnerability to a resilient $100 billion partnership.

    Reclaiming Economic Sovereignty

    Addressing a packed parliamentary chamber, the Finance Minister offered a sobering look back at the severe fiscal crisis that initially forced Ghana to negotiate a three-year, $3 billion IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Highlighting a swift, targeted recovery driven by rigid fiscal reforms, Dr. Forson detailed a drastic transformation in the nation’s macroeconomic trajectory.

    “Never again must we allow recklessness, waste, and indiscipline to define how we handle the people’s money,” Dr. Forson stated emphatically from the plenary floor.

    He announced that public debt, which hovered at a staggering 61.8 percent of GDP at the end of 2024, dropped precipitously to 44.7 percent by the close of 2025. This rapid reduction allowed Ghana to meet its long-term statutory debt sustainability targets eight years ahead of its original legislative schedule. Concurrently, inflation cratered from a peak near 24 percent to single digits, while the Ghanaian cedi mounted a powerful 40.7 percent recovery against the US dollar.

    “The era of emergency IMF bailouts is over. Ghana has moved from a position of economic vulnerability to a position of strength, surging past the $100 billion economic threshold,” Dr. Forson declared.

    Shifting the IMF Relationship: From “ICU to Wellness Centre”

    Using a medical metaphor to describe the scale of the national recovery, Dr. Forson illustrated the shifting paradigm between Accra and international financial institutions. He emphasized that the country has built a strong protective cushion, moving past the stage where it requires foreign capital injections to defend its currency or balance its national books.

    “We have moved the Ghanaian economy from what I previously described as the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to a stable wellness centre,” Dr. Forson told lawmakers.

    The Finance Minister clarified that future interactions with the Washington-based lender will no longer be centered around conditional emergency financing. Instead, Ghana is transitioning into a non-financial Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) a purely monitoring and surveillance framework designed to signal continuous fiscal discipline to international markets without accumulating external sovereign debt.

    “Ghana’s future engagement with the IMF will now shift away from financial assistance towards policy reforms and technical cooperation,” Forson affirmed. “We do not expect to return to the IMF for another financial bailout in the foreseeable future. We have moved from being an emergency supplicant to an equal policy partner.”

    Locking in Structural Discipline

    To ensure the gains are permanent and to prevent the fiscal slippages that historically disrupted previous economic cycles, the administration has passed structural legislation designed to restrain future executive spending.

    Key changes include sweeping reforms to the Public Financial Management (PFM) Act, which legally binds the state to maintain a target debt ceiling and mandates an annual primary fiscal surplus. Furthermore, the newly operationalized Independent Fiscal Council and a specialized Compliance Desk at the Ministry of Finance will systematically audit state expenses to eliminate unbudgeted expenditures.

    Reflecting on the hard-fought progress, Dr. Forson noted that international investors have responded with renewed confidence. The country’s strategy relies heavily on maximizing internal resource mechanisms such as the domestic gold-backed reserves initiative to organically fund its infrastructure instead of taking on expensive foreign commercial loans.

    “We have a job to do, and we have started fixing the deep problems,” the Finance Minister concluded. “Ghana’s message to the global financial community is straightforward: we are doing the policy work, we are reinforcing our domestic institutions, and we have established the firm conditions required for our sovereign economic future to thrive independently.”

     

  • Economy surges past US$100bn as gov’t rules out future IMF bailouts

    Economy surges past US$100bn as gov’t rules out future IMF bailouts

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    In a historic turning point for West Africa’s second-largest economy, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has declared that Ghana has officially transitioned from an International Monetary Fund (IMF) “supplicant” to an equal economic partner.

    The announcement comes on the heels of new data revealing that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) has surged past the historic US$100 billion threshold, driven by robust macro-fiscal performance and aggressive structural reforms.

    Addressing a high-level assembly of international investors and state actors, Dr. Ato Forson firmly ruled out any reliance on foreign bailouts for the foreseeable future, pointing to an economy that is rapidly regaining its self-sufficiency.

    “Ghana has officially moved from being an IMF supplicant to an economic partner,” Dr. Ato Forson declared. “With our economy surging past the US$100 billion mark, I can confidently state that no IMF bailout will be needed in the foreseeable future. The gains we are witnessing are not cosmetic; they are the tangible outcomes of deliberate, painful, and well-thought-through structural rules backed by disciplined implementation.”

    African Development Bank backs rebound with 5% growth forecast

    The Finance Minister’s optimism is strongly supported by external multilateral institutions. In its freshly released 2026 African Economic Outlook Report, the African Development Bank (AfDB) upgraded Ghana’s growth forecast, projecting a 5 percent GDP expansion for 2026, which is expected to accelerate further to 5.4 percent in 2027.

    The AfDB’s robust outlook outpaces the more conservative 4.8 percent estimates previously issued by both the World Bank and the IMF. According to the report, Ghana’s recovery is underpinned by expanding agricultural value chains, a resilient external sector maintaining a current account surplus of 3 percent of GDP, and a steadily narrowing fiscal deficit projected to drop to 2.2 percent by 2027. Furthermore, the report anticipates that year-end inflation will stabilize at 9 percent, indicating a significant containment of historical price volatility.

    Bank of Ghana guarantees monetary stability for industry

    At the annual Ghana CEO Summit in Accra, top policymakers and corporate executives gathered to deliberate on aligning this macroeconomic upswing with local industrial expansion. Speaking to the business community, the Governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), Dr Johnson Pandit Asiama, offered assurances that the central bank would maintain a highly disciplined monetary policy stance to safeguard the private sector from currency and price distortions.

    “Our focus remains squarely on locking in monetary stability to drive long-term industrial growth,” the BoG Governor stated at the summit. “Through disciplined monetary interventions, foreign exchange market guidelines, and structural tools like our aligned Cash Reserve Ratio, we are ensuring that businesses have a predictable environment to expand, hire, and innovate.”

    The central bank chief also highlighted ongoing structural engagements, noting that the BoG has formalized bridges with industry leaders including the launch of a dedicated CEO Forum and inviting business representatives to observe Monetary Policy Committee operations to ground policy decisions in real-time market realities.

    Private sector demands “bold leadership” to secure the reset

    Despite the highly encouraging numbers, prominent captains of industry at the summit warned against complacency. Renowned traditional leader and corporate leader Togbe Afede XIV addressed the summit with a powerful call to action, urging state leaders to anchor these statistical victories in deep, institutional accountability and real-world relief for local businesses.

    “While we celebrate these macroeconomic milestones, we must remember that numbers alone do not build a sustainable nation,” Togbe Afede XIV remarked during his address. “Sustaining Ghana’s economic recovery requires bold, unyielding leadership. We must actively transform business and governance structures, eliminate public waste, and ensure that our US$100 billion status directly translates into competitive credit rates, affordable energy, and real growth for indigenous businesses.”

    The government maintains that its current fiscal path is designed to do exactly that. The Ministry of Finance recently pointed to aggressive expenditure controls—including cutting the size of the central government, enforcing mandatory commitment authorization regimes across state ministries, and cleansing the public payroll of tens of thousands of unverified entries as proof of its commitment to long-term sustainability.

    As the final stages of its IMF Extended Credit Facility reviews conclude, Ghana is positioned to transition smoothly toward a independent Policy Support Instrument framework, solidifying its stance as an economic sovereign capable of managing its own destiny.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Gov’t to lay ‘radical’ COCOBOD reform bill in Parliament soon … amid IMF demands for flexible farmgate pricing

    Gov’t to lay ‘radical’ COCOBOD reform bill in Parliament soon … amid IMF demands for flexible farmgate pricing

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    In the most sweeping legislative intervention in the history of Ghana’s cocoa sector, the government is set to introduce a landmark bill in Parliament within the coming weeks to radically restructure the operations, governance, and financing of the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD).

    It is designed as a historic legislative overhaul to mandate 50% local processing, abolish foreign syndication loans, and introduce quarterly price reviews for farmers.

     

    The structural overhaul aims to permanently dismantle decades-old operational inefficiencies, mandate high-value local processing, and transition the country away from its expensive reliance on offshore syndicated loans.

    The legislative push arrives amid heavy backing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has intensified calls for deep structural changes to reduce astronomical operational costs, eliminate quasi-fiscal activities, and restore long-term financial stability to the state cocoa manager.

    Speaking at the prestigious Ishmael Yamson & Associates Business Roundtable in Accra, the Minister for Finance, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, formally announced the executive decision. He rejected growing public calls from some economic quarters to dissolve the state institution entirely, emphasizing instead that the government’s focus is on aggressive repositioning.

    “Cocoa board needs reforms. I do not believe in scrapping it, but I believe that we need to reform the cocoa board,” Dr. Forson asserted. “Cocoa board has served Ghana well. It has been a major source of foreign exchange. It has obviously suffered some mismanagement. It’s a fact that we need to recognise.”

    The Finance Minister disclosed that the final draft of the legislative framework is being processed for the legislature to consider and approve.

    “Government has taken a decision to reform the cocoa board. I’ll be going to Parliament in the next few weeks to introduce a new bill to Parliament reforming the Cocoa Board and changing the structure of the Cocoa Board,” Dr. Forson revealed.

    The industrialisation mandate

    A centerpiece of the upcoming bill is an aggressive statutory shift toward domestic industrialisation. For over seven decades, Ghana’s cocoa model has been heavily anchored on the export of raw cocoa beans, leaving the country vulnerable to volatile global commodity markets and starving local processing factories of raw materials.

    Dr. Forson stated that the new law will legally compel a structural shift in value retention.

    “For example, the bill is set to make sure that at least 50% of our raw cocoa is processed locally,” the Finance Minister declared. “We’ve been shipping out our cocoa for too long and so we want to stop that.”

    IMF demands and the new domestic funding model

    The legislative push coincides with an explicit directive from the IMF following its latest macroeconomic review of Ghana’s economic recovery programme. While endorsing the aggressive cost-cutting measures already being deployed, the global lender warned that the industry’s survival hinges on legally cementing flexible, market-driven pricing mechanisms.

    In its mission summary, the IMF stated: “Priority should be given to strengthening the legislative framework to streamline costs, including through more frequent farm gate price adjustments, improve efficiency, and ensure COCOBOD’s long-term financial sustainability.”

    The Fund argues that rigid, annualized farm gate pricing leaves COCOBOD carrying the financial brunt of global market shocks, exchange rate fluctuations, and inflation.

    In response to these perennial fiscal imbalances, COCOBOD’s new management, led by Chief Executive Dr. Randy Abbey, has already finalized a groundbreaking strategy to completely abandon legacy multi-billion-dollar foreign syndicated loans ahead of the upcoming 2026/2027 cocoa season, opting entirely for a domestic financing framework.

    Dr. Randy Abbey explained that this transition will be directly paired with the dynamic pricing adjustments demanded by international partners.

    “The new funding model will come with a new pricing mechanism which will involve periodic reviews, maybe quarterly, and will be used for the entire crop,” Dr. Abbey disclosed.

    The COCOBOD Chief Executive reassured farmers that the new system is designed to protect, rather than diminish, their livelihood, maintaining the state’s baseline commitments while adapting to market gains.

    “The model would better protect farmers’ incomes from global cocoa price volatility,” Dr. Abbey added. He clarified that while the government remains firmly committed to paying cocoa farmers a minimum of 70% of the Free-On-Board (FOB) price, the introduction of periodic, quarterly price reviews will allow farm gate returns to dynamically shift upward alongside favorable exchange rates and global market surges.

    An end to ‘business as usual’

    To prepare for the parliamentary passage of the bill, the Ministry of Finance has already issued strict directives to the administration at the “Cocoa House” to enforce absolute expenditure discipline and curb legacy debts.

    A Ministry of Finance official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the executive branch has mandated an immediate halt to unapproved spending.

    “Cabinet has directed the initiation of immediate reforms at COCOBOD to streamline their operations and cut costs. Wasteful and uncontrolled expenditure practices are to be curtailed immediately,” the Ministry stated.

    Sector analysts note that the dual alignment of the executive bill, COCOBOD’s internal shift to domestic financing, and the IMF’s insistence on legislative changes signals a definitive, historic end to the “business-as-usual” approach in Ghana’s most vital agricultural sector. As the bill heads to the parliamentary floor, both farmers and global commodity traders await the details of a framework that will reshape West Africa’s cocoa dynamics for decades to come.