News Guide Africa

Tag: GDP Growth

  • Ghana’s downstream oil industry targets regional power

    Ghana’s downstream oil industry targets regional power

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

    Ghana’s downstream petroleum industry is facing a critical turning point as surging domestic demand and expanding regional exports clash with persistent domestic refining deficits and tight profit margins.

    With national consumption climbing to 7.45 billion liters, industry leaders and regulators are pushing for comprehensive structural investments, technological upgrades, and regional trade strategies under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

    Data highlights a clear divide within the market: while overall petroleum product supply and demand surged by 15 percent to hit 8.7 billion liters, local refinery production dipped by over 11 percent, meeting barely 13 percent of national demand. This structural imbalance leaves local supply chains heavily exposed to international price swings.

     

    Downstream Industry Metric Performance Level Strategic Impact

    Total Domestic Consumption 7.45 Billion Liters (+15.3%) Spurred by transport, mining, and thermal power demand.

    Regional Product Exports ~1.0 Billion Liters (+25.0%) Positions Ghana as a distribution hub for Sahelian neighbors.

    Domestic Refinery Output ~500 Million Liters (-11.3%) Heightens vulnerability to international import price shocks.

    GDP Contribution ~10.0% of National Output Underlines the sector’s centrality to broader macroeconomic health.

     

    Stakeholder Perspectives on Infrastructure, Pricing, and Growth

    The gap between domestic refining output and surging fuel usage has prompted calls for structural reform across the distribution chain:

    “The downstream sector recorded a 15 percent increase in product supply and demand… However, domestic production from refineries was half a billion liters, which saw a decrease year-on-year. This imbalance exposes the sector to external shocks and global market volatility, reinforcing the urgency of strengthening our internal capacity.”— Dr. Riverson Oppong, CEO of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC)

    “This year is crucial in our drive to fashion out more innovative solutions to attract investments and create the needed buffers against external shocks in the fuel supply chain. Without sustained public and private investment, it will be difficult to build the infrastructure, technology, and human capital necessary to support Ghana’s long-term energy aspirations.”— Godwin Edudzi Tameklo, Esq., Chief Executive of the National Petroleum Authority (NPA)

     

    “Where the core product is a commodity and price competition is a race to the bottom, the most durable source of advantage left is the brand… We must move away from an unstable foundation where discounting erodes profit margins for everyone without buying genuine loyalty.”— Mohammed Issah, Petroleum Market Analyst

     

    Primary Market Drivers vs. Operational Bottlenecks

    ● Thermal Power and Transport Demand: A significant surge in fuel oil and gas oil utilization for thermal electricity generation, combined with robust commercial transport, drove the overall consumption increase.

    ● Regional Export Opportunities: Cross-border sales to landlocked neighbors such as Burkina Faso and Mali rose by 25 percent, offering a major foreign exchange revenue stream.

    ● Retail Forecourt Competition: Price deregulation and intense discounting between market leaders have compressed operator margins, forcing oil marketing companies to pivot toward digital loyalty schemes, non-fuel retail offerings, and service differentiation.

    ● Regulatory Modernization: Regulators are currently rolling out 24-hour depot operations, automated monitoring systems, and EV charging guidelines to future-proof distribution networks.

    While expanding trade volumes highlight Ghana’s growing role in regional energy logistics, achieving market stability will require closing the gap between raw import dependence and local processing infrastructure.

     

  • Ghana’s economy navigates inflation easing and structural debt

    Ghana’s economy navigates inflation easing and structural debt

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

    Ghana’s macroeconomic landscape reflects a delicate transition from emergency fiscal stabilization to long-term structural recalibration.

    Following a turbulent period marked by comprehensive sovereign debt restructurings, rapid currency depreciation, and double-digit price increases, key performance indicators suggest an economy finding its footing. However, underlying structural vulnerabilities, ranging from elevated borrowing costs to persistent energy sector liabilities, continue to temper broader growth expectations.

    Data from the Bank of Ghana and the Ghana Statistical Service highlights a notable deceleration in headline inflation from historic highs. This disinflationary trend has allowed monetary authorities to transition away from aggressive monetary tightening, stabilizing the benchmark policy rate at 14.0%. Backed by strong international prices for gold, resilient cocoa receipts, and steady donor inflows under ongoing multilateral support programs, the Cedi has experienced reduced volatility compared to previous adjustment cycles, bolstering foreign exchange reserves and consumer sentiment.

     

    Macroeconomic Indicator Previous Peak / Level Current Estimate Policy Implications

    Real GDP Growth 0.5% (2020) ~4.8% – 5.0% Driven primarily by non-oil services and industrial extraction.

    Monetary Policy Rate 30.0% (July 2023) 14.0% Easing liquidity constraints while maintaining an anti-inflationary bias.

    Public Debt-to-GDP ~61.0% ~45.5% Reflects restructurings, though debt-service ratios remain elevated.

    Current Account Deficit Surplus (~4.4% of GDP) Supported by trade surpluses in the extractive export sectors.

     

    Expert Perspectives on the Recovery

    The ongoing trajectory of the domestic economy remains a subject of active debate among monetary authorities, international development partners, and private enterprise operators:

    “The current policy stance is intended to steer inflation toward the central bank’s medium-term target while allowing policymakers more time to assess incoming data and its implications for the domestic economy”, Dr. Johnson Asiama, Governor of the Bank of Ghana.

     

    “We are moving into a phase of measured recovery, where fiscal stability and disciplined debt management take priority over rapid, unchecked expansion”, World Bank Regional Lead, Africa Economic Update.

     

    “While easing inflation helps bring down operational input costs, high interest rates and cautious consumer spending mean small businesses still face tight liquidity”, Kwame Addo, Private Sector Analyst & Trade Consultant

     

    “Ensuring that the macroeconomic gains filter down to the real economy requires sustained investment in domestic value-addition, particularly in agribusiness and light manufacturing”, Abena Mensah, Senior Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy

     

    Key Growth Drivers vs. Downside Risks

    ● Primary Growth Drivers: The non-oil services sector led by telecommunications, financial services, and digital trade continues to serve as the chief engine of domestic output. This is complemented by strong extractive yields from high gold production and an improved balance-of-payments position that provides crucial import cover.

    ● Fiscal and Structural Challenges: Although the primary budget deficit has narrowed under strict expenditure controls, high legacy debt-service obligations, tight domestic credit conditions, and elevated youth unemployment continue to restrict private sector capital investment.

    ● Energy Sector Liabilities: Accumulating arrears within the domestic power supply chain remain a notable implicit fiscal liability, requiring continued sector reform to prevent fiscal slip-ups.

    ● External Volatility: External commodity price fluctuations, particularly shifting global oil and cocoa prices, continue to present vulnerability to state revenue projections and foreign exchange supply.

    While macroeconomic stabilization initiatives have successfully curbed runaway inflation and reduced currency volatility, translating these top-line figures into widespread employment creation and improved living standards remains the chief hurdle for economic managers over the medium term.

     

  • Monetary stability and strong Q1 growth affirm robust outlook for business investment

    Monetary stability and strong Q1 growth affirm robust outlook for business investment

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

    International and domestic investors are eyeing renewed opportunities in Ghana following the Bank of Ghana’s decision to hold its benchmark policy rate at 14 percent, backing a sharp 6.4 percent expansion in first-quarter economic output.

    Speaking to business leaders and financial stakeholders in Sunyani, Governor Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama framed the monetary stance as a dual commitment: preserving macroeconomic predictability while creating an attractive, liquid environment for long-term private capital.

    The central bank’s decision comes against a backdrop of steady macroeconomic recovery, even as external risks, including persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fluctuating crude oil prices, continue to weigh on global financial markets.

    By anchoring the policy rate at 14%, the central bank aims to provide commercial institutions and private enterprise with predictable borrowing conditions, giving lenders room to trim interest margins without rekindling demand-pull inflation.

     

    Capitalizing on Strong Real-Sector Growth

    The economic footprint in the first quarter of 2026 presents a compelling case for commercial investment. Ghana’s GDP growth accelerated to 6.4%, up from 6.2% in the same period last year, lifted by broad gains in industrial production, services, trade, and a rebounding tourism sector.

    “I am also pleased to report that Ghana’s economy continues to grow. In the first three months of this year, the economy grew by 6.4%, compared with 6.2% during the same period last year,” Dr. Asiama announced, pointing to strengthening consumer and corporate confidence.

    For investors, the central bank’s decision to maintain the policy rate at 14% offers a stable baseline to price risk and deploy capital without the threat of sudden monetary tightening.

    “After carefully assessing our economic situation, the Committee decided to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 14.0%,” Dr. Asiama explained. “We took this decision because we believe it is the right balance. It will help keep inflation under control while supporting businesses, investment, and economic growth. At the same time, it gives us the flexibility to respond to changes in the global economy if necessary.”

    Private Credit Expansion Drives Market Opportunities

    A key indicator of investor activity is the dramatic growth in private sector credit, which surged 41 percent year-on-year. Lower borrowing costs and improved liquidity across commercial banks have unblocked credit channels, enabling companies to finance capital expenditure and market expansion.

    Dr. Asiama reassured institutional stakeholders that the financial sector is well-capitalized, resilient, and equipped to absorb external headwinds such as global oil price volatility and Middle East tensions.

    By keeping price stability intact while supporting a 41 percent boom in private credit, the central bank is positioning Ghana as an increasingly stable, high-yield destination for both direct and portfolio investments across West Africa.

     

  • From the emergency room to the wellness centre — but whose bill is it?

    From the emergency room to the wellness centre — but whose bill is it?

    By The Kasoa Economist

    There is a particular satisfaction that comes from watching a patient discharged from intensive care. Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, presenting Ghana’s 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review on Thursday, reached for exactly that image. The economy, he told Parliament, has moved “from the emergency room to the wellness centre.” It is a good line, and largely an honest one. It is also, like most lines a finance minister delivers with an election cycle somewhere on the horizon, one that deserves rather more scrutiny than applause.

     

    Start with what is genuinely impressive. Ghana’s economy has crossed $100bn in size for the first time, with real GDP growth of 6.0% in 2025, the fastest since 2019. Non-oil GDP, arguably the more honest measure of underlying health, expanded 7.6%, its best showing in fourteen years. For the evidence, the minister argued, that the recovery is not simply another commodity windfall dressed up as reform. Per capita income rose from $2,527 to $3,385 in a single year. Inflation has come down to 5.4%, comfortably inside the central bank’s target band. The government says it has already hit its statutory debt target of 45% of GDP, ahead of schedule. On paper, this is about as good a scorecard as a finance minister could ask to present.

    Then there is the announcement that will please fiscal hawks and irritate spending ministries in equal measure: no supplementary budget. “Mr Speaker, today I am not here to seek supplementary estimates,” Dr Forson told the House, promising instead to “realign” spending within the appropriations Parliament already approved. In a country whose fiscal history is littered with mid-year top-ups that quietly become the new baseline, a minister who declines to ask for more money is doing something almost countercultural. It should be noted, and applauded, on those terms alone.

    But note the framing, too. “Realignment” is a word that does a great deal of work without committing to very much. It allows a minister to claim discipline while still finding room. Later in the speech, to reject accusations that the government has been stingy, he pointed to GH¢48.8bn paid in public-sector compensation, GH¢21.5bn in interest obligations, $700m in Eurobond debt service, and GH¢10bn returned to domestic bondholders. These are not small numbers, and they suggest an administration still very much preoccupied with honouring the deals it made to exit default, rather than one free to spend as it pleases. The rhetorical trick of the speech was to use the same set of expenditure figures to answer two different critics: to the Minority, who accused the government of hoarding cash, the numbers prove generosity; to markets and the IMF, the same numbers prove restraint. Both cannot be the primary story.

    The minister was also careful to attribute the turnaround to “disciplined economic management rather than higher taxes”, tighter expenditure controls, modernised tax administration, reforms aimed at inflation targeting and exchange-rate stability. This is the more defensible claim, and probably the more important one. A recovery built on tax compliance and administrative reform is more durable than one built on a single good harvest or a lucky run in gold prices. Ghana’s finance ministers have a long history of discovering fiscal religion in the depths of a crisis and losing it the moment the numbers turn. What would be genuinely notable, more notable than any single indicator in Thursday’s speech, is if this government kept its reformist instincts once headline growth no longer requires them.

    There is a version of this review that reads as vindication of three punishing years of adjustment, and Dr Forson is right that Ghanaians, not the government, paid that price. His acknowledgment of that, pensioners absorbing cuts, businesses swallowing higher costs, households enduring a currency collapse and a debt exchange, was the most honest part of the speech, and the one line that deserved the applause it likely got. But an economy that has just crossed $100bn and posted its fastest growth in years is also an economy entering the part of the cycle where the temptation to loosen returns. The government’s insistence that it will not need supplementary estimates is a promise that costs nothing to make in July and everything to keep in November, when election-year politics start pressing on every finance ministry in the world, not just Ghana’s.

    None of this diminishes what has genuinely been achieved. A country that restructured its debt less than three years ago and is now debating the composition of a $100bn economy, rather than the terms of its next IMF review, has earned the right to a good news day. The test, as ever, is not what a minister says when the numbers are working in his favour. It is what he does in the two quarters after this speech, when the harvest effect on inflation fades, when cocoa prices stay soft, and when every backbencher in his own party starts asking why “realignment” cannot stretch to their constituency. Ghana has proved, convincingly, that it can take its medicine. The next test is whether it can stay off the diet once it starts to feel well again.

     

  • Policy Rate held at 14% … amid rising global energy pressures and robust domestic growth

    Policy Rate held at 14% … amid rising global energy pressures and robust domestic growth

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed 

     

    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana has unanimously voted to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 14.0%, citing the need to safeguard price stability while navigating heightened global uncertainty caused by renewed geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

    The decision was announced following the committee’s 131st regular meeting, held from July 20 to 22, 2026, where members reviewed global and domestic macroeconomic developments and evaluated risks to the country’s inflation and growth outlook.

    Addressing journalists during the policy announcement, the central bank highlighted that renewed conflict in the Middle East has reignited volatility across global energy markets, leading to supply chain disruptions and a rebound in crude oil prices above $85 per barrel.

    “The easing of geopolitical tensions around mid-June proved short-lived. The renewed escalation of the conflict has led to another closure of the Strait of Hormuz and triggered instability in energy markets,” the MPC statement revealed. “Disinflation trends in several countries have stalled as energy prices have risen sharply, prompting many central banks to pause their monetary policy easing cycles in response to emerging inflationary risks.”

     

    Despite these headwinds, global economic activity has shown resilience, supported by substantial investments in artificial intelligence within the United States and China, leading the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to project global growth at 3.0% for July 2026.

    Strong Real Sector Growth and Credit Expansion

    On the domestic front, the central bank painted a picture of robust economic momentum, driven by strong growth in the services and industry sectors. Real GDP expanded by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 6.2% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

    Furthermore, the Bank’s Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) recorded a year-on-year growth of 13.4% in May 2026, compared to 4.4% in May 2025. This expansion was further bolstered by significant easing in credit conditions across the banking sector. The benchmark 91-day Treasury bill yield dropped to 5.3% in June 2026 from 14.7% a year earlier, while average commercial bank lending rates fell to 15.6% from 27.0%.

    In response to cheaper borrowing costs, private sector credit growth expanded sharply by 41.2% year-on-year in June 2026 (34.1% in real terms), compared to 8.6% recorded in June 2025.

    “The latest confidence surveys conducted in June 2026 showed positive consumer and business sentiments, supported by optimism about growth prospects, subdued inflation, and declining lending rates,” the committee noted.

     

    Inflation Uptick Driven by Base Effects and Transport Costs

    Headline inflation saw a moderate uptick, rising to 5.3% in June 2026 from 3.7% in May 2026, driven by higher food (3.9%) and non-food (6.3%) prices following temporary hikes in transport fares and base effects. However, the MPC emphasized that inflation remains well below the lower bound of the central bank’s medium-term target band (8\% \pm 2\%).

    “The July forecast remains broadly unchanged from the previous MPC round, with headline inflation projected to rise gradually into the target band,” the MPC stated. “Potential upward adjustment in utility tariffs, together with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated increase in crude oil prices, present upside risks to the inflation outlook.”

     

    Robust External Sector and Banking Solvency

    Ghana’s external position remained firm, supported by high export earnings from cocoa and gold. The trade surplus widened significantly to $8.8 billion in the first half of 2026, up from $5.8 billion in the same period in 2025, while the current account surplus rose to $5.1 billion.

    Gross International Reserves stood at $12.9 billion at the end of June 2026 equivalent to 5.0 months of import cover providing an adequate buffer against external shocks despite higher energy import costs. On the currency market, the Ghana Cedi experienced a year-to-date depreciation of 9.5% against the US dollar as of July 17, 2026, after facing demand pressures in May.

    The banking sector also demonstrated strength, with total industry assets expanding by 30.7% to GH¢502.4 billion, while the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) doubled to 20.4% from 10.6% in June 2025. Non-performing loans (NPLs) improved, declining to 16.1% from 23.1% over the same period.

    Unanimous Stance to Hold Rate

    In concluding its deliberations, the committee determined that maintaining the policy rate at 14.0% balances the need to anchor inflation expectations while supporting ongoing recovery in the real sector.

    “Given these considerations, the committee, by a unanimous decision, maintained the monetary policy rate at 14.0%,” the central bank announced. “The committee judged that the current policy stance remains appropriate to guide inflation into the medium-term target band while allowing time to assess the evolving geopolitical developments and their potential impact on the domestic economy.”

     

    The next regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled for September 22 to 24, 2026, where the central bank will re-evaluate its stance based on new economic data.

     

  • Jobless recovery: Ghana’s resurgent economy is leaving workers behind

    Jobless recovery: Ghana’s resurgent economy is leaving workers behind

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    Ghana’s macroeconomic indicators are painting a picture of a remarkable comeback: inflation is cooling, GDP growth is beating expectations, and the Cedi has found its footing. Yet, for the thousands of young graduates pounding the pavement in Accra and Kumasi, the “economic miracle” remains invisible.

    A string of new reports and expert analyses suggest that Ghana is grappling with a “jobless recovery,” where the wealth being generated is concentrated in sectors that simply do not hire many people.

    A sharp decline in job adverts

    The most recent labor market report has sent a chill through the workforce. Despite the much-touted economic stability, the number of formal job advertisements has actually fallen in the first quarter of 2026. This weakening in hiring activity suggests that businesses, while more stable, remain hesitant to expand their payrolls.

    “Hiring weakens as job adverts fall despite economic stability,” the report noted, pointing to a paradox where firms are breathing easier financially but are not yet confident enough to recruit. Many companies are reportedly focusing on “operational efficiency”, doing more with fewer people, rather than scaling up human capital.

    “The weakest link”

    Prominent financial analyst and Executive Director of Dalex Finance, Joe Jackson, has been vocal about this disconnect. He argues that while the government deserves credit for stabilizing the ship, the “social contract” of providing livelihoods is being neglected.

    “Job creation remains the weakest link in this economic recovery,” Jackson stated. He warned that a recovery that doesn’t put money into the pockets of the youth is politically and socially unsustainable. “We can talk about macro stability all day, but if the ordinary Ghanaian cannot find a job to sustain their family, the numbers on the spreadsheet mean nothing.”

    The sectoral mismatch: Growth without people

    Why is a strong rebound failing to translate into employment? Yaw Appiah Lartey, a Partner at Deloitte Ghana, points to the nature of the growth itself. Ghana’s current GDP expansion is being driven by “capital-intensive” sectors rather than “labor-intensive” ones.

    “Ghana’s economic growth is not creating jobs despite a strong rebound because of where that growth is coming from,” Lartey explained. He noted that the sectors leading the charge, Extractives (Oil and Gold), Telecommunications, and Financial Services, require massive technology and capital but relatively few workers. In contrast, Agriculture and Manufacturing, which have the potential to employ millions, continue to lag behind.

    Structural bottlenecks and business hesitation

    The private sector, often called the “engine of growth,” is currently idling. Mark Badu-Aboagye, CEO of the Ghana National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (GNCCI), argues that “structural bottlenecks” are blunting the impact of the macro gains.

    “The transmission mechanism from the macro to the micro is broken,” Badu-Aboagye said. He highlighted that while inflation is down, the cost of electricity and high interest rates still make it nearly impossible for a local manufacturer to hire more staff. “Businesses want to produce and people want to buy, but when the structural costs remain high, the first thing a company cuts is its recruitment drive.”

    The human cost of “efficiency”

    For the youth, the situation is increasingly desperate. Many are turning to the “gig economy” or low-productivity informal trade just to survive. The GNCCI CEO warned that the Bank of Ghana’s focus on mopping up liquidity to fight inflation has inadvertently lowered the “purchasing power of the ordinary person,” further depressing demand for the very goods and services that would create jobs.

    A call for strategic re-alignment

    As the 2026 fiscal year progresses, the consensus among experts is that the government must move beyond “stabilization” and into “industrial stimulation.”

    “We need a deliberate policy shift that incentivizes hiring,” Joe Jackson urged. “Stability was Step A. Step B must be about jobs, or we risk a generation of disillusioned youth who feel the economy has no place for them.”

    With the “Mahama at 16 Months” milestone now reached, the administration faces a critical test: can it turn these “macro wins” into a “micro reality” for the Ghanaian worker?

     

     

  • Ghana’s economic recovery teeters on a 2026 tightrope

    Ghana’s economic recovery teeters on a 2026 tightrope

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    Ghana’s economy is currently operating in two speeds: a blistering start to the year that is now cooling into a more sustainable, albeit cautious, recovery.

    As international observers and credit rating agencies turn their gaze toward the West African powerhouse, a complex picture is emerging. It is a narrative of ambitious World Bank targets, cooling inflationary pressures, and the sobering reality of a growth rate that is beginning to find its floor.

    The most optimistic signal for the medium term comes from the World Bank’s latest projections. The Bretton Woods institution has forecasted that Ghana’s GDP growth will hit 4.8% by 2026. Perhaps more significantly for the average Ghanaian household, the bank projects that inflation, which has battered purchasing power over the last three years, will end the year at a single-digit of 9%.

    This “9% by 26” target represents more than just a number; it is a signal of a return to macroeconomic normalcy. If achieved, it would mark the definitive end of the hyper-inflationary cycle that saw prices of basic goods double and triple in recent years.

    January growth at 7.5%

    However, the path to the 2026 stability is proving to be non-linear. New data indicates that economic growth was 7.5% in January 2026. While a 7.5% growth rate remains enviable by global standards, the “slowdown” from January 2025’s 8.2% suggests that the initial post-recovery surge, driven by a rebound in mining and services, may be leveling off.

    Analysts suggest this cooling is a natural consequence of tighter monetary policy. The Bank of Ghana’s efforts to mop up excess liquidity to fight inflation have inevitably kept the cost of borrowing for the private sector well above the inflation rate, leading to a slight deceleration in industrial expansion.

    S&P: Stability amidst the storm

    Amidst these fluctuating growth figures, the global credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings has maintained a “Stable” outlook for Ghana. This is a crucial “seal of approval” for a country still navigating the complexities of post-debt restructuring.

    S&P’s assessment acknowledges that while the economy is showing “clear signs of recovery,” significant risks persist. The agency points to Ghana’s high debt-servicing costs and the volatility of global commodity prices, specifically gold and oil, as the primary “known unknowns” that could derail the current trajectory.

    The “Stable” rating serves as a double-edged sword: it recognizes the government’s disciplined fiscal consolidation under the current IMF program, but it also warns that there is very little room for populist spending or policy slippage.

    The outlook

    As we look toward the second half of 2026, the Ghanaian economy is entering what economists call the “sticky middle.” The low-hanging fruit of recovery, such as reopening shuttered factories and stabilizing the Cedi, has largely been harvested.

    The next phase of growth will be harder to earn. Achieving the World Bank’s 4.8% target will require a shift from “stability” to “structural transformation.” This means moving beyond a reliance on raw material exports and fostering a domestic manufacturing base that can withstand external shocks.

    For the man on the street, the 9% inflation target is the only metric that truly matters. Until the cost of kenkey, transport, and rent aligns with those single-digit projections, the “recovery” will remain a statistical reality rather than a felt one.

    With S&P maintaining a steady hand and the World Bank pointing toward a brighter 2026, the blueprint for success is clear. However, the question remains: can the nation maintain the fiscal discipline required to cross the finish line?

     

     

  • Ghana to witness stronger growth in 2026 – Fitch solutions hints

    Ghana to witness stronger growth in 2026 – Fitch solutions hints

    Fitch Solutions is projecting strong economic growth for Ghana in 2026, forecasting that the country will outperform several emerging-market peers on the back of solid macroeconomic gains made in 2025. The outlook was shared by Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, during the Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) post-budget forum held last week, in Accra. Kruiniger described Ghana’s growth trajectory as “particularly impressive,” noting that the 2026 budget supports a continuation of the positive trends seen this year. “We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth, and this aligns with our forecast that Ghana’s real GDP growth will rise from an already strong 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026,” he said. He added that private consumption and a rebound in fixed investment recovering from the sharp contraction in 2023 will drive next year’s performance. Fitch Solutions expects medium-term growth to remain healthy at around 5%, supported by strong domestic demand. According to Kruiniger, Ghana’s growth outlook is not only solid by its own historical standards but also stands out globally. The country is set to outpace several major emerging markets in 2026, including mainland China, Indonesia and Kenya. But the research firm also warned of emerging risks. Kruiniger cautioned that the escalating Islamist insurgency across the Sahel could pose a threat to Ghana’s otherwise optimistic economic outlook. He explained that although Ghana has so far been shielded from violent spillovers thanks in part to its northern terrain and stronger state presence instability in the region is worsening, especially in Mali. “Our base case is that Ghana will remain largely insulated from major attacks,” he said. gillian anderson nude Chiara Teocchi “But if militants were to cross into northern Ghana, the government would likely need to ramp up military spending, which is currently among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa.”

    The security warning comes at a time when Ghana is working to consolidate its post-debt restructuring recovery, stabilise inflation, and strengthen investor confidence going into the 2026 fiscal year.  

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Banks profit jumps near 50% amidst all-time low private sector credit-to-GDP gap

    Banks profit jumps near 50% amidst all-time low private sector credit-to-GDP gap

    As commercial banks posted a profit-after-tax of about GH¢9.7 billion, a 46.1% jump compared to GH¢6.7 billion recorded during the same period in 2024, private sector credit-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gap remained negative at all-time in the first eight months of 2025.

    According to the September 2025 Monetary Policy Report, the sector posted gains across all income lines, with other income surging 47.3% in August 2025, reversing a 2.9% contraction recorded a year earlier.

    Other indicators, such as net interest income rose 21.8% to GH¢19.2 billion, up from GH¢16.9 billion in August 2024, driven by a slowdown in interest expenses due to lower interbank lending rates. On a year-on-year basis, interest income increased 21.5% to GH¢29.3 billion, while interest expenses climbed to GH¢10.2 billion from GH¢8.4 billion, representing 20.9% growth — slightly below the 22.1% growth in August 2024.

    Overall, profitability indicators strengthened, with return-on-equity (ROE) increasing from 31.4% in August 2024 to 32.2% in August 2025, and return-on-assets (ROA) improving from 4.9% to 5.6% over the same period — underscoring the industry’s robust recovery and stronger balance sheet performance.

    Private sector credit-to-GDP gap at all time low

    Although, the Banking Sector Soundness Index was significantly above the long-term trend, nearing the pre-DDEP level, reflecting an improving solvency positions, adequate liquidity and strong earnings performance. However, the private sector credit-to-GDP gap is at an all-time low.

    The ratio is another measure of macro-financial risk. A positive credit-to-GDP gap indicates that total private sector credit extension relative to the size of the economy is above its long-term trend and vice versa.

    “Ghana’s credit-to-GDP remains negative and declining, suggesting the need for measures to promote credit delivery to support the real economy”, the central bank disclosed in its September 2025 Monetary Policy Report.

    NPLs ratio expected to improve

    The Bank reported that the non-performing loans ratio, though marginally improved, remained elevated.

    That notwithstanding, the report said the ongoing macroeconomic recovery, supported by the implementation by banks on how to reduce Non-Performing Loans (NPLs), should help moderate the build-up of new non-performing loans and improve overall asset quality.

    However, provisions for depreciation, bad debts, and impairment losses contracted sharply by 46%, against a 19.2% contraction in 2024, on account of higher recoveries and write-offs.

    The report further noted that net fees and commissions grew 13.1% by August 2025, down from 22.9% a year earlier, while overall net operating income expanded by 28%, compared to 10.9% growth in 2024.

    Operating expenses also increased moderately, rising 19.5% compared to 18.9% in the previous year, reflecting marginal growth in staff and administrative costs.

     

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Reforms to secure long-term macroeconomic stability – Ghana’s economy managers buzz int’l investors

    Reforms to secure long-term macroeconomic stability – Ghana’s economy managers buzz int’l investors

    Key managers of Ghana’s economy have buzzed international investors and development agencies with assurance of sustaining the current economic reforms and gains.

    In separate sessions of meetings with development partners, Ghana’s Minister of Finance and the Governor of Bank of Ghana exhumed confidence and optimism of putting the economy on a remarkable structural and fiscal reforms that will secure a long-term macroeconomic stability.

    During a sideline event of the 2025 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings while speaking to a packed audience of investors in Washington, Minister for Finance, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, expressed strong optimism about the sustainability of the ongoing structural and fiscal reforms, which he said are designed to secure long-term macroeconomic stability.

    “Ghana is on track. We will sustain the gains”, Dr Forson said.

    Also, Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Asiama, speaking at the IMF/World Bank Governor Talk Series in Washington D.C., under the theme “From Crisis to Confidence: Ghana’s Journey to Macroeconomic Stabilisation”, boasted that “growth has rebounded, inflation has cooled, and Ghana is now outperforming expectations under the IMF programme.

    “Inflation, which stood at 23.5 percent in January 2025, has since dropped to 9.4 percent in September the first single-digit rate in four years, beating the government’s 11.9 percent target.”

    Dr. Asiama reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to sustaining macroeconomic stability through prudent policy management and market confidence restoration.

    Improved indicators

    Dr Forson, in his statement underscored that, the country’s economic turnaround is already evident in declining debt vulnerabilities and stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, reflecting the effectiveness of government policy interventions and reforms.

    Consequently, Ghana’s economic growth is projected to rebound strongly in the final quarter of the year, as the second quarter grew 6.3% according to Ghana Statistical Service data, led by a revitalised real sector, while inflation, which has already seen significant declines, is expected to ease further and remain in single digits by year-end.

    “The government remains on course to achieve a positive primary balance of 1.5% of GDP by the close of the fiscal year, a milestone that will further consolidate the gains made under ongoing fiscal reforms.

    Ghana’s recovery

    Dr Asiama indicated that Ghana’s economy has made a firm recovery after years of instability, describing the country as being “back on track” following months of policy discipline and reform. While he reflected on the state of the economy when he assumed office.

    “We came to meet a challenged economy in the sense that remember we had a domestic debt issue in 2022, fiscal policy was highly expansionary. It led to us exiting the international financial market. There was resort to domestic financing.

    “We remember all the sovereign downgrades we had to suffer. We came into office with a lot of liquidity, high inflation, [and] an exchange rate that was depreciating widely,” he said.

    He disclosed that at the time, there were even discussions on whether Ghana should cancel its IMF-supported programme, as doubts loomed over the country’s ability to meet its targets.

    “And I remember when we came in there were talks about if we should cancel the programme altogether, there were doubts as to whether we will be able to carry on the programme.

    “But I am happy to say that eight months down the road we have turned the corner. Ghana is back,” Dr. Asiama declared.

    Fiscal consolidation

    Dr. Forson reaffirmed the government’s dedication to implementing fiscal consolidation measures anchored on tight expenditure controls and prudent financial management.

    This comes as the ministry has revealed that, over 70 public sector entities, including several Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies (MMDAs), have complied with the Public Financial Management (PFM) Commitment Control and Expenditure Management Measures issued by the Minister for Finance on May 2, 2025.

    The compliance update follows the submission of quarterly commitment control review reports to the Internal Audit Agency (IAA), in line with efforts to strengthen fiscal discipline and improve expenditure efficiency across government institutions.

    The Ministry’s guidelines were designed to ensure that public entities commit and spend within approved budgetary limits, prevent the accumulation of arrears, and enhance transparency in the management of public funds.

    Some of the institutions are GoldBod, Tema Oil Refinery, Ghana Enterprise Agency, Public Utilities and Regulatory Commission, Rent Control Department, State Interests and Governance Authority, Venture Capital Trust Fund, Department of Parks and Gardens.Ghanaian Events Calendar

    Others include, NaCCA, Office of the Head of Civil Service, Office of the Administrator of Stool Lands, some Ministries, some Colleges of Education and MMDAs.

    This high compliance rate signals increasing adherence to fiscal responsibility principles and improved coordination between internal auditors and spending officers.

    The next phase is expected to focus on deepening real-time expenditure monitoring, addressing non-compliant entities, and promoting greater accountability across the public financial management ecosystem.

    The move aligns with the government’s broader PFM reform agenda, which seeks to consolidate gains in macroeconomic stability, control public spending, and strengthen the integrity of Ghana’s fiscal management framework.

     

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed