Ghana’s economy has taken a sharp turn of remarkable growth in the first nine months of 2025, which has forced some Bretton Woods to revise upwards their forecasts.
This, and other reasons have prompted economist Professor Peter Quartey to highlight that the economy could outperform growth projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for 2025.
The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook, projects a 4 percent GDP growth for Ghana by the end of 2025 slightly below the World Bank’s 4.3 percent forecast. Both institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic stance as Ghana continues to implement reforms under its economic recovery programme.
However, according to data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), which last week released the maiden edition of its Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth (MIEG), the index rose from 105.4 in July 2024 to 110.2 in July 2025 translating into about 4.5% year-on-year growth, indicating continued momentum in economic activity despite global and domestic headwinds.
Consequently, Professor Quartey believes Ghana has the potential to exceed these targets if ongoing fiscal and structural reforms are sustained. Explaining that, while the Bretton Woods institutions often take a conservative approach to their forecasts, Ghana’s economic resilience and improving fundamentals could deliver stronger-than-expected growth outcomes.
“Certainly the IMF and the World Bank are often cautiously optimistic; they don’t want to project such high numbers only for you not to achieve them” he said.
“But as a country, oftentimes we have gone beyond their projections, all things being equal, and I believe we will go beyond the 4% they are projecting.”
However, Prof. Quartey cautioned that Ghana’s pursuit of growth must not come at the cost of environmental sustainability, pointing to the growing threat of illegal mining, or galamsey.
“Our environmental growth accounting has to be taken seriously. You can grow by 10% but if you destroy your environment, water bodies, and poison your food sources, it is not something to celebrate about.”
The Monthly Growth Tracker
At the release of the maiden Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth (MIEG) July edition, the Government Statistician, Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu, highlighted that the agriculture sector was the key driver of growth, expanding by 8.0%, supported by improved crop yields and increased productivity in food staples.
The industrial sector, however, recorded a marginal growth of 0.1%, due to challenges in energy supply and manufacturing output, while the services sector maintained moderate gains.
MIEG, a new analytical tool designed to provide a more frequent snapshot of the country’s economic performance between quarterly GDP releases, is to serve as an early indicator of shifts in economic activity, enabling policymakers, investors, and businesses to make more timely and informed decisions.
World Bank’s revised projection
A fortnight ago, the World Bank projected Ghana’s economy to expand by 4.3% in 2025, as contained in the October 2025 edition of Africa’s Pulse Report, released by the Bank in Washington, D.C.
The projection is about 0.4% more than its earlier projection of 3.9%, showing a renewed optimism about the country’s recovery trajectory.
The WB’s revised projection is 0.1% lower than the 4.4% projection by the Government of Ghana as captured in the 2025 Budget.
Already, Ghana’s economy has expanded by 6.3% in the second quarter of 2025, influenced by the services sector, which grew by 9.9% and contributed the most to GDP.
The World Bank projects growth to strengthen further to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, underscoring a positive medium-term outlook.
Across the continent, Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2025, up from 3.5% in 2024.
The Bank attributed the rebound to easing inflationary pressures and a modest recovery in investment, despite persistent global headwinds.
It noted that the number of African countries with double-digit inflation has dropped sharply from 23 in October 2022 to 10 in July 2025 reflecting progress in price stabilization.
However, the report cautioned that downside risks remain, including trade policy uncertainty, weak investor sentiment, and shrinking access to external finance and aid.
The World Bank expects Ghana’s inflation to close 2025 at 15.4%, a projection that contrasts with the official rate of 9.4% in September 2025, down from 21.5% a year earlier.
The Bank’s forecast appears conservative, given the country’s recent disinflation trend.
Nonetheless, the report expressed optimism that inflation will continue easing, dropping to 9.4% in 2026.
The Bank of Ghana, in its latest Monetary Policy Report, also reaffirmed expectations for inflation to remain within the single-digit range by year-end.
By Adnan Adams Mohammed
