News Guide Africa

Tag: gross domestic product (GDP)

  • Ghana breaks into $100bn club as annual growth surges to 6%

    Ghana breaks into $100bn club as annual growth surges to 6%

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed 

     

    Ghana has officially entered a new economic era as robust macroeconomic performance propelled the country’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) past the $100 billion threshold, underpinned by a strong 6.0 percent economic expansion for the year.

    The significant growth acceleration up from 5.8 percent in the previous period reflects a comprehensive resurgence across the industrial, services, and agricultural sectors, cementing the West African nation’s position among the region’s top economic performers.

    Speaking on the broader economic trajectory and macroeconomic stability, members of the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee noted the positive shift in domestic economic sentiment.

    “In the domestic economy, economic activity has continued to improve… Real GDP growth was 6.0 percent in 2025, compared with 5.8 percent in 2024,” the Monetary Policy Committee stated in its official decision document. “The confidence surveys also reflected positive sentiments by both consumers and businesses, backed by favourable macroeconomic conditions and improved industry prospects.”

    The official review further pointed to strong fiscal discipline and building external buffers, which have underpinned the currency’s stability and fostered a favorable environment for business expansion.

    “Fiscal consolidation provides policy space. The primary fiscal balance swung from a deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP in 2024 to a surplus of 2.6 percent in 2025,” the committee added, highlighting that strengthened buffers have translated directly into relative stability across the foreign exchange market.

    Economists and policy leaders have pointed to strategic interventions in key industrial, digital, and SME sectors as critical drivers behind reaching the US$100 billion economy. Prior outline initiatives including targeted support for domestic businesses and financial technology ecosystems helped cushion market shocks and stimulate private sector-led growth.

    Addressing business leaders during economic reviews outlining national growth strategies, government officials emphasized that achieving robust, accelerated growth relied on structured policy execution.

    “What all analysts, from the IMF to the rating agencies agree on, is that the Ghanaian economy will grow even faster,” remarked Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia during a previous presentation outlining national economic targets. “Ghana is at the crossroads of a unique opportunity. Our economic situation is improving in line with targets. We have what it takes to build an even stronger, more robust, creative, and open economy.”

    With the economy breaching the $100 billion barrier and growth hitting 6.0 percent, focus now turns to maintaining long-term fiscal discipline, controlling inflation, and translating top-line GDP expansion into job creation and broader socio-economic development across the country.

     

     

     

  • BoG 2025 Annual Report: Historic turnaround yields 40.7% Cedi surge amid record single-digit inflation

    BoG 2025 Annual Report: Historic turnaround yields 40.7% Cedi surge amid record single-digit inflation

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

    The Bank of Ghana’s newly published 2025 Annual Report and Financial Statements has unveiled a historic triumph of monetary craftsmanship, positioning the nation as a beacon of aggressive structural recovery.

    The report detailed a watershed year of aggressive macroeconomic stabilization, robust gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and a dramatic strengthening of external buffers.

    The spectacular economic turnaround achieved through an expertly engineered stabilization strategy, the central bank successfully crushed headline inflation from a staggering 23.8% in 2024 down to a phenomenal single-digit low of 5.4% by December 2025, comfortably outperforming the central bank’s medium-term target band of 8+-2%.

    Parallel to this achievement, the Ghanaian cedi mounted a brilliant, historic 40.7% appreciation against the US dollar, entirely erasing the previous year’s losses.

    Even as intense open market interventions to secure this stability resulted in a deliberate, counterpart operating loss of GH¢15.63 billion on its balance sheet, the Bank of Ghana has masterfully restored investor confidence and laid down an ironclad foundation for sustained national prosperity.

     

    The Year in Numbers: Key Macroeconomic Indicators

    The newly published figures paint a comprehensive picture of structural recovery across the domestic landscape:

    ● Real GDP Growth: Expanded by 6.0% (with non-oil GDP accelerating at an impressive 7.6%), driven heavily by the agriculture and services sectors.

    ● Headline Inflation: Closed the year at 5.4%, marking its lowest level since 2018.

    ● Monetary Policy Rate: Slid along an easing trajectory to end the year at 18%, down from an initial height of 28%.

    ● Current Account Surplus: Reached a historic high of US$9.39 billion, fueled by a massive doubling of gold export receipts.

    ● Gross International Reserves: Advanced to US$13.83 billion, providing a comfortable 5.7 months of import cover.

    ● Currency Performance: The Ghana cedi appreciated by a historic 40.7% against the US dollar, fully reversing the 19.2% depreciation logged in 2024.

     

    Stabilization Achieved “At Great Cost”

    Despite the stellar macroeconomic achievements, the sheer intensity of open market liquidity sterilization and reserve accumulation operations placed a significant burden on the central bank’s own balance sheet.

    The Bank of Ghana recorded an Operating Loss of GH¢15.63 billion for the 2025 financial year, alongside a cumulative negative equity position of GH¢93.82 billion.

    Central bank officials emphasize that these financial developments do not impair the bank’s operational capacity. A phased recapitalization memorandum of understanding (MoU) has already been executed with the Ministry of Finance to progressively restore the bank’s equity over the medium term.

    Official Statements from Leadership

    In his official foreword to the report, Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, Governor of the Bank of Ghana, strongly defended the strategic execution of the bank’s mandate:

    “The experience of 2025 demonstrates that restoring and preserving stability requires commitment, discipline, and at times difficult choices, but the benefits are far-reaching”.

    Addressing the operating losses stemming from intense open market interventions to absorb excess liquidity, Governor Asiama remarked:

    “While these operations and developments negatively affected the Bank’s financial position, they were the financial counterpart of the stabilisation gains achieved during the year. Lower inflation, reduced borrowing costs, exchange rate stability, and improved investor confidence are now visible across the economy”.

    Looking ahead to the upcoming fiscal cycles, the Governor reaffirmed that the primary objective will remain entirely uncompromised:

    “Price stability remains the foundation upon which sustainable economic growth, investment, employment creation, and financial stability depend. As we look ahead, our focus will be on consolidating and safeguarding the gains in stability”.

    Banking Sector and Future Reforms

    The report notes that the broader banking sector remains highly resilient, boasting a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 17.5%, well clear of the 13.0% regulatory minimum.

    To prepare the financial ecosystem for long-term development, the central bank also successfully advanced critical institutional structural reforms in 2025. These included the formalization of the 2025–2029 National Payment Systems Strategy to accelerate digital finance infrastructure, as well as the landmark passage of the Virtual Asset Service Providers Act, 2025 (Act 1154), introducing a robust legal blueprint for cryptocurrency and digital asset frameworks inside the country.

     

  • Analysts clash over Ghana’s 2026 growth trajectory …as Fitch warns of geopolitical headwinds but Standard Bank sees expansion

    Analysts clash over Ghana’s 2026 growth trajectory …as Fitch warns of geopolitical headwinds but Standard Bank sees expansion

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed 

     

    International rating agency Fitch Ratings and financial powerhouse Standard Bank Research have presented sharply divergent forecasts for Ghana’s economic performance, sparking a lively debate among local policymakers and investors over the trajectory of the country’s post-restructuring recovery.

    While Standard Bank Research has upgraded its baseline projection, predicting robust Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion between 5.9% and 6.1%, Fitch Ratings has taken a more conservative stance, projecting a moderate cooling of economic momentum to 5.0%.

    The differing outlooks highlight a tension between structural domestic gains and intensifying external global shocks.

    Standard Bank: Structural Reforms Anchor Optimism

    Standard Bank’s optimistic forecast relies heavily on a stronger-than-expected 2025 baseline, during which the Ghanaian economy expanded by 6.0%, outpacing initial consensus estimates.

    Speaking at a market landscape webinar organized by Stanbic Bank Ghana, Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Research at Standard Bank, argued that key structural transformations and aggressive infrastructural execution will cushion the nation from global market turbulence.

    “Given the base has changed now and is higher than we had expected, we still believe that growth in 2026 will be between 5.9% and 6.1%, with potential to pick up to between 6.2% and 6.3% in 2027,” Qureishi stated. “Regardless of risks such as tensions in the Middle East, Ghana’s economy would still expand due to some structural changes and investments on the ground.”

    Qureishi pointed to a major wave of public and private capital spending, including the newly commissioned Tema Port expansion, the ongoing reconstruction of Kumasi Airport, and the expansion of the Accra-Tema Motorway, as critical economic catalysts. Furthermore, he noted that the newly established gold board’s strict oversight will successfully curb illicit leakages in artisanal mining, driving formalized investments back into the extractive sector.

    Fitch: Geopolitical Shocks Face Sub-Saharan Resilience

    Conversely, Fitch Ratings expects a slight deceleration from 2025’s 5.9% mark, pinning its conservative 5.0% growth forecast on an unpredictable global energy market and escalating geopolitical disruptions.

    According to Fitch’s latest analytical brief, the widening dimensions of international conflict serve as a critical test for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) oil-importing sovereigns. The agency warned that the transmission channels of these external conflicts, primarily spiked refined petroleum costs and potential fertilizer shortages, will inevitably apply friction to domestic production.

    “Our baseline forecasts are for real GDP to grow in all Fitch-rated SSA sovereigns this year… but some oil importers are exposed to a supply shock,” Fitch Ratings detailed in its report. The agency added that while improvements to monetary, fiscal, and macroeconomic policy settings since 2022 have significantly enhanced the region’s overall structural resilience, “the war’s impact will test its depth and durability.”

    Despite projecting a growth slowdown, Fitch noted that Ghana’s macroeconomy is confronting these external vulnerabilities from a position of relative stability. Thanks to central bank intervention strategies and a strong gold price rally, improved exchange-rate flexibility and built-up international reserves have provided fiscal authorities with a vital cushion against rapid inflationary pass-throughs.

    The New ‘Low Beta’ Economy

    The conflicting numbers come at a time when Ghana’s relationship with international capital markets has fundamentally shifted. Standard Bank’s data reveals that foreign investor participation in Ghana’s domestic debt market has plummeted to below 5%, down from nearly 40% in the pre-pandemic era.

    While this capital flight presents deep challenges for securing external financing, economists note it has paradoxically insulated the local economy from global portfolio volatility. By operating as a “low beta market,” Ghana’s domestic growth drivers are increasingly tied to internal output rather than the whims of international hot money.

    As the state navigates the year, the ultimate growth outcome will depend on whether local infrastructure and resource formalization can outrun the compounding costs of global supply chain disruptions.

     

     

  • Information, Innovation, and Brand Sustainability: How Ghanaian SMEs can unlock billion-dollar capital ecosystems and new markets

    Information, Innovation, and Brand Sustainability: How Ghanaian SMEs can unlock billion-dollar capital ecosystems and new markets

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) form the undisputed bedrock of the Ghanaian economy, representing nearly 90 percent of all registered businesses, employing 80 percent of the workforce, and generating over 60 percent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Yet, a dual crisis of “investment unreadiness” and acute information asymmetry continues to prevent thousands of these domestic enterprises from scaling.

    At major industrial forums held across the capital, including the landmark 10th Beauty, Cosmetics & Wellness West Africa Expo (The Legacy Expo), business leaders, development economists, and trade experts delivered a unified message: Ghanaian enterprises do not simply suffer from a lack of available capital. Rather, they lack the structural systems to discover existing funding mechanisms, enter untapped international markets, and cultivate sustainable corporate brands.

    Bridging the Capital Gap: It is an Information Crisis

    The prevailing narrative within the private sector has long blamed restrictive collateral requirements and high commercial interest rates for stagnation. However, development finance experts argue that a massive disconnect exists between global funding providers and local business owners. Every year, international foundations, impact investment facilities, and challenge funds commit billions of dollars to African entrepreneurship, yet a vast portion of these funds remains entirely unutilized.

    “The conversation around SME financing often focuses on the shortage of capital,” noted Joevas Asare, an Oxford-trained economist and development finance practitioner. “While this is a genuine concern, it overlooks another critical barrier that receives far less attention access to information.”

    Mr. Asare explained that this structural imbalance creates severe information asymmetry across the economy, leaving highly viable businesses completely unaware of specialized concessionary loans or grant opportunities.

    “For many entrepreneurs, the challenge is not a lack of ambition or viable business models,” Asare emphasized. “Rather, it is the significant amount of time and effort required to navigate a fragmented funding landscape. Business owners often spend weeks searching through websites and interpreting eligibility criteria, all while managing the day-to-day demands of running a company.” He urged policymakers and development partners to build unified, transparent digital directories to streamline the funding pipeline, stating, “Unlocking that potential is not simply a matter of increasing funding pools. It is also about ensuring that businesses can find, understand, and access the opportunities that already exist.”

    The Multi-Market Horizon: Scaling Beyond Boundaries

    Concurrently, local brands are being challenged to aggressively look past domestic borders to ensure long-term corporate survivability. At the opening of The Legacy Expo at the UPSA Auditorium, which drew over 300 major corporate exhibitors from South Korea, Dubai, Egypt, Turkey, Nigeria, and India, trade organizers stressed that market stagnation occurs when firms fail to innovate their consumer outreach and export strategies.

    Addressing the assembly of international delegates and local entrepreneurs, the Organizer of the Expo, Rebecca Donkor, highlighted the event’s evolution into a major vehicle for cross-border trade and brand development.

    “For ten years, we have created opportunities for businesses to showcase their products and services, discover new markets, attract customers, secure partnerships, and build sustainable brands,” Ms. Donkor stated.

    She noted that through strategic global partnerships, the platform is actively working with the Ministry of Trade, Agribusiness and Industry to place indigenous West African operations at the forefront of the global lifestyle and cosmetics marketplace. “African beauty is not merely an industry, but a powerful economic force, a cultural asset, and a vehicle for job creation, trade, empowerment, and transformation,” Donkor added, urging small businesses to transition away from localized, informal operations and embrace globally connected commercial frameworks.

    Professionalizing the Enterprise for Sustainable Growth

    To successfully capture international markets and secure private equity, investment analysts maintain that Ghanaian SMEs must undergo an internal cultural shift toward institutional professionalization. Investors frequently cite poor corporate governance, disorganized record-keeping, and a lack of a unique product differentiator as the real barriers to capital deployment, rather than a lack of liquidity in the banking system.

    Corporate advisory experts point out that many micro-enterprises operate strictly on cash systems, with essential financial margins stored entirely in the memories of the founders. Transitioning into a fundable entity requires engaging certified accounting services, establishing clear corporate structures, and formulating realistic growth projections.

    By building resilient operational foundations, upgrading information flow, and designing distinct, environmentally conscious value propositions, Ghana’s entrepreneurial sector can effectively position itself to capitalize on global trade agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), transforming localized operations into sustainable, multi-national African brands.

     

  • Economy surges past US$100bn as gov’t rules out future IMF bailouts

    Economy surges past US$100bn as gov’t rules out future IMF bailouts

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    In a historic turning point for West Africa’s second-largest economy, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has declared that Ghana has officially transitioned from an International Monetary Fund (IMF) “supplicant” to an equal economic partner.

    The announcement comes on the heels of new data revealing that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) has surged past the historic US$100 billion threshold, driven by robust macro-fiscal performance and aggressive structural reforms.

    Addressing a high-level assembly of international investors and state actors, Dr. Ato Forson firmly ruled out any reliance on foreign bailouts for the foreseeable future, pointing to an economy that is rapidly regaining its self-sufficiency.

    “Ghana has officially moved from being an IMF supplicant to an economic partner,” Dr. Ato Forson declared. “With our economy surging past the US$100 billion mark, I can confidently state that no IMF bailout will be needed in the foreseeable future. The gains we are witnessing are not cosmetic; they are the tangible outcomes of deliberate, painful, and well-thought-through structural rules backed by disciplined implementation.”

    African Development Bank backs rebound with 5% growth forecast

    The Finance Minister’s optimism is strongly supported by external multilateral institutions. In its freshly released 2026 African Economic Outlook Report, the African Development Bank (AfDB) upgraded Ghana’s growth forecast, projecting a 5 percent GDP expansion for 2026, which is expected to accelerate further to 5.4 percent in 2027.

    The AfDB’s robust outlook outpaces the more conservative 4.8 percent estimates previously issued by both the World Bank and the IMF. According to the report, Ghana’s recovery is underpinned by expanding agricultural value chains, a resilient external sector maintaining a current account surplus of 3 percent of GDP, and a steadily narrowing fiscal deficit projected to drop to 2.2 percent by 2027. Furthermore, the report anticipates that year-end inflation will stabilize at 9 percent, indicating a significant containment of historical price volatility.

    Bank of Ghana guarantees monetary stability for industry

    At the annual Ghana CEO Summit in Accra, top policymakers and corporate executives gathered to deliberate on aligning this macroeconomic upswing with local industrial expansion. Speaking to the business community, the Governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), Dr Johnson Pandit Asiama, offered assurances that the central bank would maintain a highly disciplined monetary policy stance to safeguard the private sector from currency and price distortions.

    “Our focus remains squarely on locking in monetary stability to drive long-term industrial growth,” the BoG Governor stated at the summit. “Through disciplined monetary interventions, foreign exchange market guidelines, and structural tools like our aligned Cash Reserve Ratio, we are ensuring that businesses have a predictable environment to expand, hire, and innovate.”

    The central bank chief also highlighted ongoing structural engagements, noting that the BoG has formalized bridges with industry leaders including the launch of a dedicated CEO Forum and inviting business representatives to observe Monetary Policy Committee operations to ground policy decisions in real-time market realities.

    Private sector demands “bold leadership” to secure the reset

    Despite the highly encouraging numbers, prominent captains of industry at the summit warned against complacency. Renowned traditional leader and corporate leader Togbe Afede XIV addressed the summit with a powerful call to action, urging state leaders to anchor these statistical victories in deep, institutional accountability and real-world relief for local businesses.

    “While we celebrate these macroeconomic milestones, we must remember that numbers alone do not build a sustainable nation,” Togbe Afede XIV remarked during his address. “Sustaining Ghana’s economic recovery requires bold, unyielding leadership. We must actively transform business and governance structures, eliminate public waste, and ensure that our US$100 billion status directly translates into competitive credit rates, affordable energy, and real growth for indigenous businesses.”

    The government maintains that its current fiscal path is designed to do exactly that. The Ministry of Finance recently pointed to aggressive expenditure controls—including cutting the size of the central government, enforcing mandatory commitment authorization regimes across state ministries, and cleansing the public payroll of tens of thousands of unverified entries as proof of its commitment to long-term sustainability.

    As the final stages of its IMF Extended Credit Facility reviews conclude, Ghana is positioned to transition smoothly toward a independent Policy Support Instrument framework, solidifying its stance as an economic sovereign capable of managing its own destiny.