News Guide Africa

Tag: Bank of Ghana (BoG)

  • Ghana’s Turnaround: How a GH¢15bn Central Bank Intervention Succeeded Where GH¢60bn Losses Failed To Spark Growth 

    Ghana’s Turnaround: How a GH¢15bn Central Bank Intervention Succeeded Where GH¢60bn Losses Failed To Spark Growth 

    “From Survival to Expansion: Businesses Finally Breathe Again”

    Ghana’s economy may be teaching one of the harshest lessons in modern finance:

    A bigger loss does not always produce a bigger recovery.

    Just three years ago, Ghana’s economy stood at the edge of a financial cliff. The Central Bank absorbed losses exceeding 60 billion Ghana cedis during the peak of the economic crisis. The financial system was protected, the markets were stabilized, and the economy avoided collapse.

    But for businesses, the pain never ended;

    1. Borrowing costs remained at over 30% to 40%.

    2. Treasury bill rates exploded.

    3. Factories slowed

    4. SMEs struggled to survive

    5. Private sector growth nearly disappeared

    6. Interest rates crossed painful territory

    7. Inflation surged above crisis levels.

    And while the Bank of Ghana absorbed losses exceeding GH¢60 billion during the financial crisis and Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) era, many businesses still asked a painful question:

    “If the system was rescued, why was borrowing still killing industries?”

    Today, the conversation has changed.

    A newer wave of interventions estimated around GH¢15 billion in monetary and liquidity management costs is now being credited with creating one of Ghana’s most business-friendly financial environments in years.

    And this time, the impact is being felt not only in banking halls, but inside factories, farms, trading markets, and industrial value chains. And now businesses are beginning to talk about expansion again instead of survival.

    The uncomfortable national question now emerging is simple:

    How did Ghana lose over 60 billion Ghana cedis and still struggle to create growth… Yet a 15 billion Ghana Cedis intervention is beginning to revive confidence across the economy?

    THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN “SURVIVAL” AND “GROWTH”

    Economists now describe Ghana’s 2022–2023 intervention period as a “system survival phase.”

    But what does it mean in practical terms?

    It means the system was kept alive but not necessarily made comfortable to operate in.

    The priority was clear:

    1. Prevent collapse

    2. stabilize the currency

    3. control inflation

    4. and keep banks functioning

    This objectives was almost achieved and prevented systematic collapse.

    But there was a trade-off.

    Stability came with tight conditions that pushed pressure onto businesses:

    1. Interest rates remained high

    2. Credit was expensive

    3. Liquidity was restricted

    4. Treasury bill rates were extremely high

    So while the system was stabilized, access to affordable financing remained limited.

    Survival meant the economy could function.

    Growth means the economy becomes worth investing in.

    During that phase, businesses could stay open but struggled to expand.

    They operated but did not advance and found it difficult to make profit.

    The system was protected but growth was effectively absent because Growth requires more than stability, it requires:

    1. Affordable capital

    2. Predictable conditions

    3. and room to take risk

    “THERE WAS NO REAL PROFIT LEFT”

    At the peak of the crisis, many businesses found themselves operating in what could be described as a financial squeeze zone.

    Consider a medium-sized factory borrowing at:

    38% interest rate

    while:

    1. paying taxes

    2. utility costs

    3. logistics

    4. payroll

    5. and raw material inflation

    Businesses often found itself operating only to survive debt obligations.

    Because once financing costs rise to that level, something fundamental changes;

    Profit is no longer driven by efficiency or demand, it is consumed by the cost of money itself.

    In such an environment, even well run businesses struggle because:

    1. Strong sales no longer guarantee profitability

    2. Demand no longer translates into expansion

    This created a system where firms were technically active but economically constrained.

    They could produce but not scale.

    They could sell but not reinvest.

    Many SMEs reduced expansion plans.

    Others delayed hiring.

    Some industries operated below capacity despite strong market demand.

    And that is where the phrase “There was no real profit left” becomes more than just a complaint.

    A financial analyst explained:

    “The 2022 intervention saved the banking system, but not necessarily business expansion. The economy was stabilized, but growth remained constrained.”

    THE NEW INTERVENTION IS DIFFERENT

    Today, the conversation has changed.

    A newer wave of intervention estimated around 15 billion Ghana Cedis in monetary and liquidity management cost is now being credited with creating one of Ghana’s most business friendly financial environment in years.

    And this time, the difference is not just in policy but in impact.

    The current intervention phase appears to be delivering what businesses were waiting for:

    1. Lower inflation

    2. Falling Treasury bill rates

    3. Improved cedi stability

    4. Reduced pressure on lending rates

    5. Stronger liquidity conditions

    For the first time in years, stability is beginning to feel usable.

    The results are now visible across multiple sectors:

    1. Agribusiness

    2. Manufacturing

    3. Trade

    4. Telecom

    5. Fintech

    6. Export industries

    7. and SME expansion.

    T-BILL COLLAPSE CHANGES EVERYTHING

    One of the biggest shifts has been the dramatic fall in Treasury bill yields.

    For years, banks preferred lending to government because returns were extremely high and risk-free.

    Private sector financing suffered.

    Now, with Treasury bill rates falling sharply:

    1. Banks are being pushed toward productive lending

    2. Industries become attractive again

    3. And private sector expansion regains momentum.

    Some analysts argue this shift should have happened earlier.

    But its impact now is undeniable.

    This may become one of the biggest structural shifts in Ghana’s financial sector in over a decade

    FACTORIES MAY FINALLY RUN 24 HOURS

    Lower financing costs could significantly impact Ghana’s industrialization agenda.

    Large agro-processing projects, export factories, and value-chain financing structures now have greater chances of success under cheaper financing conditions.

    Not necessarily because demand has suddenly increased but because financing is no longer a barrier to meeting that demand.

    Sectors expected to benefit include:

    1. Fruit processing

    2. Food manufacturing

    3. Logistics

    4. Housing

    5. Renewable energy

    6. And digital commerce ecosystems

    Industry players say the new environment could support:

    1. Expanded production lines

    2. Grower financing

    3. Machinery upgrades

    4. Export competitiveness

    5. And job creation.

    A MAJOR TEST FOR BANKS

    The falling rate environment is also exposing weaknesses within the banking industry.

    For years, high inflation and government borrowing created unusually profitable conditions for passive Treasury investments.

    Now the environment is shifting

    Banks may need to:

    1. Innovate

    2. Finance value chains

    3. Support SMEs

    4. Partner fintechs

    5. And build industrial financing products.

    In other words, profitability may now depend on real economic engagements not just passive returns.

    Analysts believe the future winners will be banks that move aggressively into:

    1. Agriculture.

    2. Manufacturing

    3. Telecom-driven finance

    4. Digital payments

    5. And structured value-chain lending.

    GHANA MAY BE ENTERING A NEW ECONOMIC PHASE

    The current environment is increasingly being described as “The transition from crisis management to growth activation.”

    With inflation easing, Treasury bill rates started falling and cedi showing signs of stability. Businesses are beginning to experience something that had been absent for years.

    Industries are gradually regaining confidence.

    Private sector activity is picking up

    Expansion is becoming realistic again.

    If this stability continues:

    1. Industries may expand faster

    2. Exports could improve

    3. Employment may rise

    4. And private sector confidence could strengthen significantly.

    After years of economic pain and years of operating in survival mode, many businesses are finally seeing something they had almost forgotten:

    The possibility of affordable growth.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Investors diversifying away from T bills

    Investors diversifying away from T bills

    By Toma Imirhe

    Early signals are emerging of a gradual but notable rebalancing of investment portfolios within Ghana’s fixed income market, as some institutional and high-net-worth investors begin to shift funds away from short-term Treasury bills into a mix of central bank Open Market Operations (OMO) instruments, bank deposits, and equities.

    The move, while still tentative, reflects changing yield dynamics and liquidity preferences following the Bank of Ghana’s monetary easing cycle and the sharp decline in short-term interest rates.

    Recent auction data shows a sustained drop in Treasury bill yields across the curve. The 91-day bill rate had fallen to about 4.91%, while the 182-day and 364-day instruments were offering roughly 6.78% and 9.98% respectively as of mid-April 2026.

    This marks a significant decline from levels above 10% earlier in the year and over 11% at the end of 2025, reflecting both easing inflation and the impact of the policy rate cuts.

    Despite these lower yields, Treasury bills continued to attract strong nominal demand, although recent auctions recorded under-subscription rates forcing a slight uptake in the interest rates they offer.

    “Demand is still strong, but it is becoming more selective,” said a fixed income strategist at a leading Accra-based asset management firm. “Investors are increasingly unwilling to lock in funds at current short-term yields when alternative instruments offer either better returns or comparable returns with more flexibility.”

    One leg of the emerging rebalancing is towards the Bank of Ghana’s Open Market Operations (OMO) instruments and longer-dated government bonds.

    OMO bills used by the central bank to manage liquidity have become more attractive to banks and institutional investors seeking short-term placements with competitive rates and -with 14 days tenor – lower duration risk.

    At the same time, some investors are extending duration into medium- to long-term bonds on the secondary market, to lock in yields ahead of a potential further decline in interest rates. With government having resumed medium term bond issuances with a seven year bond recently, this window of opportunity is widening.

    “With the yield curve expected to compress further, there is a clear incentive to move into longer tenors now,” notes an Accra-based bond market analyst. “The opportunity cost of staying in 91-day bills is rising.”

    A second stream of reallocation is flowing into bank deposits and near-cash instruments.

    Commercial banks, adjusting to the lower monetary policy rate, have begun tweaking deposit offerings to retain liquidity, particularly from corporate clients. While deposit rates remain below historical T-bill yields, they are increasingly competitive on a risk-adjusted basis.

    For conservative investors, especially corporates managing working capital, the appeal lies in liquidity and capital preservation.

    “Some clients prefer to keep funds in high-quality bank deposits or money market funds where they can access liquidity quickly,” said a treasury manager at a tier-one Ghanaian bank. “The marginal yield superiority of T-bills is no longer enough to justify being locked into them.”

    Perhaps the most notable, albeit still limited, shift is towards equities.

    The Ghana Stock Exchange has posted strong returns in recent months, driven by banking sector recovery following the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme and improved macroeconomic stability.

    “Equities are beginning to look attractive again, particularly bank stocks which are showing strong earnings rebounds,” says an equity analyst at a local brokerage. “We are seeing some rotation from fixed income into equities, but it is still modest.”

    Market participants say the shift into equities is being constrained by several factors.

    First, risk appetite remains cautious after recent macroeconomic shocks. Second, liquidity on the stock market is relatively thin compared to the fixed income market. Third, many institutional investors face mandate restrictions that limit equity exposure.

    “There is interest, but not a wholesale shift,” the analyst adds. “Investors are dipping their toes in the water, rather than actually diving in.

    Taken together, these trends point to an emerging three-way portfolio rebalancing One is reduced incremental allocations to short-term T-bills due to falling yields; another is increased placements in OMO instruments and longer-dated bonds; and the third is diversification into bank deposits and a gradual tilt towards equities

    This is not yet a wholesale exit from government securities, but rather a reallocation within and beyond the fixed income space.

    Looking ahead, analysts believe equities could attract a larger share of investment flows though if current conditions persist.

    Key triggers would include continued macroeconomic stability, sustained earnings growth by listed companies especially banks and further declines in fixed income yields.

    “If T-bill rates remain below 5% at the short end, the relative attractiveness of equities will improve significantly,” asserts the asset manager. “But it will take time for confidence to fully return.”

    For now, the rebalancing remains gradual and segmented, driven by differing risk appetites and liquidity needs. But the direction is becoming clearer: Ghana’s investment landscape is slowly shifting from a T-bill-dominated market to a more diversified allocation across asset classes.

     

     

  • IMF signals optimism for Ghana amid lingering financial headwinds

    IMF signals optimism for Ghana amid lingering financial headwinds

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    As Ghana prepares to transition into a post-programme era with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global lender is painting a picture of cautious optimism.

    While the macroeconomic horizon looks brighter, with growth projections ticking upward and inflation expected to cool, the Fund is simultaneously sounding the alarm on deep-seated vulnerabilities within the domestic banking sector that could threaten long-term stability.

    Recent data and executive assessments suggest that Ghana’s economy is beginning to turn the corner.

    Revised data

    The IMF has revised Ghana’s growth rate for 2026 to a robust 4.8%, a notable signal of resilience despite ongoing global economic pressures. Perhaps more encouraging for the average Ghanaian is the forecast for inflation, which is projected to drop to 7.9% by 2026.

    “The Fund is optimistic about Ghana’s post-programme outlook,” the IMF noted in a recent assessment, though it coupled this praise with a stern reminder. To maintain this trajectory, the lender urges “sustained fiscal discipline” to ensure that the gains made under the current programme are not eroded by election-year spending or administrative lapses.

    The banking sector: A fragile recovery

    However, beneath the surface of improving GDP figures lies a banking sector still grappling with the scars of recent domestic debt restructuring. While the industry is recording a “gradual recovery” in terms of profitability and liquidity, the IMF points out that structural risks remain uncomfortably high.

    Central to these concerns are Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and “sovereign exposures,” which refer to the heavy volume of government debt held by local banks. These exposures remain elevated, leaving the financial system sensitive to any shifts in government creditworthiness.

    To mitigate these risks, the IMF is recommending a significant “strengthening of the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) macro-prudential framework.” This would involve tighter oversight and more rigorous stress-testing to ensure that banks can withstand future shocks without requiring state bailouts.

    Calls for global reform

    While the IMF is advising Ghana on internal reforms, Ghanaian officials are pushing for a reciprocal evolution from the Fund itself. Speaking at recent high-level meetings, the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, advocated for fundamental changes to how the IMF supports member countries.

    Dr. Asiama pushed for “changes to IMF support for member countries,” arguing that the current frameworks must become more flexible and responsive to the unique challenges faced by emerging economies, particularly those dealing with climate-related shocks and disproportionate debt burdens.

    Looking ahead to 2026

    The road to 2026 appears to be a dual-track journey. On one hand, the “Galamsey” of fiscal instability is being addressed through rigorous programme targets, leading to the projected 4.8% growth. On the other hand, the financial sector must navigate a “post-programme” world where the safety net of the IMF is gone, but the high NPLs remain.

    For the recovery to be meaningful for the person on the street, the projected drop in inflation must translate into lower costs of living, and the banking sector’s recovery must lead to increased lending for small businesses and agribusinesses.

    As the IMF continues its monitoring, the message to Ghana’s policymakers is clear: the foundation is being rebuilt, but the mortar is still wet. Success will depend on whether the country can pair its newfound growth with the institutional discipline required to keep the “sovereign exposures” from turning into a renewed crisis.

     

     

  • Ghana’s crucial but complicated IMF exit strategy

    Ghana’s crucial but complicated IMF exit strategy

    By Toma Imirhe

    As Ghana approaches the rescheduled conclusion of its three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on August 16, 2026, policymakers are shifting focus from stabilization to sustainability. For the Government of Ghana and the Bank of Ghana (BoG), the challenge is no longer just meeting programme benchmarks, but ensuring that the hard-won macroeconomic gains endure beyond IMF oversight.

    The US$3 billion programme, approved in May 2023, was designed to restore macroeconomic stability following Ghana’s worst economic crisis in decades. With about US$2.8 billion already disbursed and the fifth review successfully completed, Ghana now stands at a critical inflection point of either exiting the programme with restored economic credibility or risking a reversal of the gains made through it..

    By most official accounts, Ghana’s performance under the IMF programme has been strong. The IMF itself notes that “performance under the program has been generally satisfactory,” with all quantitative targets for the fifth review met.

    Macroeconomic indicators have improved significantly. Growth has rebounded, reaching 6.0% last year, inflation has returned to single digits for the first time since 2021 – the 3.2% recorded for March is the lowest in decades – and the cedi has stabilized at below 11 to one US dollar amid rising reserves that can cover about 5.8 months of imports.. These gains reflect a combination of fiscal consolidation, tight monetary policy, and external support including debt restructuring agreements with bilateral creditors.

    The Bank of Ghana has complemented fiscal tightening with cautious monetary easing, following a period of aggressive rate hikes. According to the IMF, the central bank has “appropriately begun a cautious monetary easing cycle,” (indeed lowering its benchmark Monetary Policy Rate by 1,400 basis points from 28% to 14% over the past year),while rebuilding international reserves.

    How successful has the programme been?

    Originally scheduled to end in May 2026, the programme was extended by three months to August 16. Contrary to speculation, the extension was not due to poor performance.

    IMF Resident Representative Dr. Adrian Alter has emphasized that the extension was “purely technical” and intended to allow sufficient time to complete the final programme review.

    Specifically, the extension enables an assessment of macroeconomic data through end-2025 and the first quarter of 2026, the completion of reforms underpinning the sixth and final review and the preparation and circulation of documentation formally ending the programme for IMF Board approval.

    In essence, the additional time is designed to ensure a clean and credible exit rather than a rushed conclusion. It also allows for adjustments to programme targets particularly fiscal and monetary benchmarks to reflect evolving macroeconomic conditions while maintaining overall reform momentum.

    The likelihood of Ghana meeting all end-programme targets is high but not guaranteed.

    On the positive side, Ghana has demonstrated strong programme ownership. The IMF credits the government and its central bank with “decisively implementing ambitious corrective actions” following earlier policy slippages. Fiscal consolidation is on track, with a projected primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP by end-2026.

    However, several risks could derail full compliance.

    One is structural reform delays. While quantitative targets have largely been met, some structural reforms have experienced delays. These include public financial management improvements and state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms. Failure to fully implement these reforms could affect the final review.

    Another is lingering uncertainties over debt restructuring. Although significant progress has been made, Ghana’s external debt restructuring is not fully complete. The IMF has warned that delays in concluding agreements with all creditors could pose risks to programme completion and post-programme sustainability.

    A third risk is external vulnerabilities. Ghana remains exposed to global commodity price volatility particularly gold and cocoa prices as well as oil import costs. A deterioration in external conditions could impact fiscal revenues and foreign exchange inflows. This has been illustrated vividly by the recent reversal of the surge in the price of gold and the sharp increase in the cost of oil imports resulting from the ongoing geo-political tensions in the Persian Gulf.

    Inevitably, there are also policy slippage risks. Election-related spending pressures or weakened fiscal discipline could undermine programme targets. The IMF has repeatedly stressed the need to “stay the course” on fiscal adjustment.

    Given these factors, Ghana is likely to meet most but possibly not all structural benchmarks, even if headline macroeconomic targets are achieved.

    By conventional IMF metrics, Ghana’s programme can be considered broadly successful.

    It has stabilized inflation and exchange rates, restored a measure of investor confidence, improved fiscal balances and rebuilt foreign exchange reserves. Perhaps most importantly, it has re-established macroeconomic credibility after the 2022 crisis and debt default.

    However, success has come at a cost. Fiscal consolidation has constrained public spending, while high interest rates have weighed on private sector credit. The domestic debt exchange programme also imposed losses on bondholders, including institutional investors such as banks, insurers, fund managers and pension funds, affecting financial sector stability.

    Moreover, Ghana remains classified as being at risk of debt distress, despite recent improvements in its sovereign credit ratings, underscoring the fragility of the recovery.

    Preparing for life after the IMF

    Both the Government of Ghana and the Bank of Ghana are already taking steps to ensure a smooth transition out of the programme.

    One key priority is institutionalizing fiscal discipline. The 2026 budget aligns with IMF targets and introduces a strengthened fiscal responsibility framework. Sustaining primary surpluses will be critical to reducing debt levels.

    Another is the strengthening of revenue mobilization. Efforts are underway to enhance tax administration, broaden the tax base, and reduce revenue leakages. These reforms are essential to maintaining fiscal space post-IMF.

    Deepening monetary policy credibility is yet another priority. To this end, the Bank of Ghana is focusing on strengthening its independence, improving foreign exchange market operations, and reducing quasi-fiscal activities.

    The central bank, in collaboration with government itself is also working towards fully restoring financial sector stability. Recapitalization of banks and resolution of non-performing loans remain ongoing priorities, alongside reforms to state-owned financial institutions.

    Despite the progress made, Ghana faces significant challenges after exiting the IMF programme.

    Maintaining a sustainable public debt trajectory without IMF oversight will require strict adherence to fiscal rules and continued engagement with creditors. It is noteworthy that government has already resumed issuing medium germ domestic bonds (which are available to foreign investors) even before the IMF programme ends.

    The energy sector remains a major fiscal risk too, with arrears and inefficiencies threatening to derail consolidation efforts. This situation is not being helped by the ongoing spike in oil prices.

    High interest rates and limited access to credit could hinder economic growth and job creation. Although interest rates have come down significantly since mid-2025, actual lending rates are still substantially higher than inflation and low yields on government treasuries have not yet diverted investible funds into the requisite major increase in credit to the private sector.

    Perhaps most worrying of all, sustaining political commitment to difficult reforms—particularly in a potentially charged political environment—will be a major test, one that increases as the next general elections looms nearer.

    While all these risks can be addressed, at least in part, by domestic economic policy, global economic uncertainty, commodity price swings, and geopolitical tensions which could quickly reverse gains, cannot.

    Ultimately, Ghana’s exit from the IMF programme will be less about ticking the final boxes and more about maintaining discipline in a post-programme environment.

    As IMF officials have cautioned, “continued reform efforts remain essential” to sustain stability and growth.

    The three-month extension to August 2026 may appear minor, but it could prove decisive. By allowing time to consolidate reforms and complete the final review thoroughly, it enhances the credibility of Ghana’s exit.

    The real test, however, begins after the IMF leaves. Whether Ghana can sustain its recovery independently will determine if this programme is remembered as a turning point—or merely a temporary reprieve.

    SOURCE: Business Post online

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Inside the AI revolution reshaping Ghana’s ports

    Inside the AI revolution reshaping Ghana’s ports

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    At Ghana’s bustling maritime gateways, a silent, invisible revolution is unfolding. It doesn’t carry a badge or walk the docks, but it has managed to do what decades of manual inspections could not: pinpoint a staggering GH¢11 billion in hidden revenue leakages.

    The tool at the heart of this transformation is the ‘Publican’ AI system. While its deployment by the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) has been hailed as a masterstroke in fiscal recovery, it has simultaneously become a lightning rod for a national debate involving the Ministry of Finance, parliamentary watchdogs, and trade unions.

    This is the analytical inside story of how Ghana is attempting to digitize its borders—and the friction that comes with it.

    The GH¢11 billion revelation

    The headline figure that has stopped the nation in its tracks is GH¢11 billion. This is the amount the GRA credits the Publican AI with exposing through “suspicious transactions.”

    For years, the ports were plagued by a phenomenon known as “value gap” or under-invoicing where importers declare the value of a luxury SUV as that of a salvaged sedan, or a shipment of high-end electronics as mere plastic parts. By utilizing global price benchmarking and real-time data analytics, Publican stripped away the anonymity of these transactions.

    “The AI system is a game-changer,” says Anthony Kwasi Sarpong, the Commissioner-General of the GRA. “It isn’t just about finding mistakes; it’s about identifying deliberate patterns of tax evasion that have drained the national purse for years.”

    Efficiency vs. friction: The speed debate

    Perhaps the most persistent criticism from the trading community specifically clearing agents was that adding a layer of AI analysis would “choke” the flow of goods, turning Tema and Takoradi into digital parking lots.

    However, the GRA has countered this with data of its own. The Authority maintains that Publican is actually speeding up trade. By acting as a sophisticated filter, the AI instantly clears “low-risk” cargo from compliant importers who have a history of honest declarations.

    “In the past, we had to slow everyone down to catch a few bad actors,” a senior customs official explained. “Now, the AI flags the 10% that are suspicious, allowing the other 90% to move through the gates faster than ever.”

    The question of sovereignty: Who makes the final call?

    A major point of analytical tension has been the fear of “Algorithm Governance” the idea that a machine might be unilaterally deciding how much a Ghanaian business owes in taxes.

    The GRA and the Ministry of Finance have been careful to clarify the AI’s mandate. The system is a “whistleblower,” not a “judge.” It does not determine the final customs value; instead, it generates a “red flag” when a declaration deviates significantly from global market norms.

    The final assessment remains in human hands. This “human-in-the-loop” architecture is designed to prevent technical glitches from causing financial ruin for importers, while still providing customs officers with the data-driven “ammunition” they need to challenge suspicious claims.

    Political heat and the “Truedare” controversy

    Despite the economic wins, the rollout has faced intense political scrutiny. Joseph Cudjoe, the Minister for Public Enterprises, recently raised alarms regarding potential revenue losses and the structure of the deal involving the AI’s parent company, Truedare.

    Cudjoe’s concerns center on the “cost-benefit” of the contract—specifically whether the fees paid to the technology providers might offset the gains made in revenue recovery. His “alarm” serves as a reminder that in the world of government procurement, even the most efficient technology must pass the test of transparency and value for money.

    The Ministry of Finance, however, has stood firmly behind the project. In a recent defense, the Ministry argued that the GH¢11 billion identified far outweighs any operational costs and that the system is essential for the nation’s survival under current global economic pressures.

    Stakeholder evolution: The IEAG turnaround

    One of the most telling signs of the system’s viability is the shifting stance of the Importers and Exporters Association of Ghana (IEAG). Initially skeptical and vocal about their concerns, the association has recently moved to back the Publican system.

    This endorsement came only after the GRA and the technology providers addressed specific “pain points” regarding user interface and the speed of the flagging process. The IEAG’s support suggests that the private sector is willing to accept AI oversight—provided it remains fair, predictable, and transparent.

    The road ahead: A digital frontier

    As Ghana continues to grapple with debt and the need for domestic revenue mobilization, the “Publican” experiment is more than just a software rollout; it is a test case for the continent.

    The analytical reality is that the GH¢11 billion recovered is only the beginning. The real victory for the GRA will be “behavioral change”—a future where importers stop attempting to cheat the system because they know a tireless, 24/7 digital eye is watching every invoice.

    For now, the silicon gatekeeper remains at its post. The debate over its cost and its “intelligence” will likely continue in the halls of Parliament, but at the ports, the numbers speak for themselves. The machine has found the money; now, the state must ensure it keeps it.

     

     

  • NPL risks cast shadow over Ghana’s economic recovery amid BoG rate cut

    NPL risks cast shadow over Ghana’s economic recovery amid BoG rate cut

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    Professional services firm Deloitte and the Bank of Ghana (BoG) have issued a dire warning: while Ghana’s macroeconomic indicators are brightening, a “stubborn mountain” of bad debt remains the primary threat to the stability of the banking sector.

    In its latest commentary on the nation’s financial health, Deloitte highlighted that despite a general improvement in asset quality, the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio stands at a staggering 18.7%. This “toxic asset” load continues to pose a significant risk, even as the Bank of Ghana moves to stimulate the economy through aggressive monetary easing.

    In March 2026, the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama, slashed the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points to 14.0%. The decision followed a period of robust recovery, including a real GDP growth of 6% in 2025 and a dramatic fall in inflation to 3.3% by February 2026.

    However, Deloitte warns that this shift is not without peril. “Although asset quality has improved, the NPL ratio remains a key risk,” the firm stated. They further cautioned that the pass-through effect of higher global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions could trigger a resurgence in inflationary pressures, potentially undoing recent gains.

    A “dual-speed” recovery

    The BoG’s March 2026 Monetary Policy Report describes a “dual-speed” economy. On one hand, consumer and business confidence have surged to record highs as the Cedi stabilizes. On the other, the structural health of bank balance sheets is under intense pressure from legacy debts.

    “Businesses are beginning to see a path toward expansion again,” Dr. Asiama noted. “But the NPL ratio is the Achilles’ heel. It creates a ‘liquidity squeeze’ that stalls the very recovery businesses are feeling optimistic about.”

    Factors influencing the NPL ratio

    The NPL ratio, the percentage of bank loans that are in default or close to it, remains elevated, posing what the BoG describes as a “key risk” to the industry’s stability.

    High NPLs restrict a bank’s ability to lend anew to productive sectors of the economy. When a significant portion of a bank’s capital is tied up in non-performing assets, it creates a “liquidity squeeze” that can stall the very economic recovery that businesses are currently feeling optimistic about.

    The drivers of these NPLs include legacy debt which are unresolved arrears from previous economic shocks; high borrowing costs because, despite the drop in inflation, the real cost of credit remains high for many SMEs; and sector-specific stress because certain industries, particularly construction and agriculture, are still struggling with long payment cycles.

    The great divide: local vs. foreign banks

    New data reveals a widening gap in how financial institutions are weathering the storm. Indigenous (local) banks are bearing the brunt of the crisis, with NPL ratios ranging between 18.5% and 22.0%. In contrast, foreign-owned subsidiaries have maintained much cleaner books, with ratios between 8.0% and 12.5%.

    Experts attribute this disparity to local banks’ high exposure to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and delayed government payments to contractors. Foreign banks, backed by parent company capital and stricter global credit scoring, have recovered faster from previous shocks like the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP).

    Risks on the horizon

    While the external sector remains resilient, with reserves rising to US$14.5 billion, Deloitte pointed to emerging vulnerabilities:

    Capital outflows: As interest rates fall, there is a risk of capital exiting the country in search of higher returns elsewhere.

    Currency volatility: Increased liquidity in the banking sector could put renewed pressure on the Cedi.

    Real returns: Currently, real returns on investment remain positive due to the wide gap between inflation and interest rates, but this window may narrow if global shocks persist.

    Regulatory crackdown

    The Bank of Ghana has signaled it will maintain a “hawkish” eye on credit risk. The regulator is currently pushing banks to adopt more aggressive recovery efforts and stricter frameworks for new loans.

    “We cannot have a sustainable recovery if the banking sector is carrying a heavy load of toxic assets,” a senior BoG official stated.

    As the second quarter of 2026 begins, the “Confidence vs. NPL” tug-of-war remains the defining theme for Ghana’s financial sector. For investors and consumers alike, the message from both Deloitte and the Central Bank is clear: the sky is clearing, but the ground remains muddy.

    Comparative Analysis: NPL ratios (Q1 2026)

    Feature Indigenous (Local) Banks Foreign-Owned (Subsidiaries)

    Average NPL Ratio 18.5% – 22.0% 8.0% – 12.5%

    Primary Risk Drivers High exposure to local SMEs and delayed government payments to contractors. Stricter global credit scoring and focus on multi-national corporations (MNCs).

    Capital Adequacy More vulnerable to Domestic Debt Exchange (DDEP) shocks; slower recovery. Backed by parent company capital; faster post-DDEP recovery.

    Recovery Strategy Heavy reliance on collateral foreclosure and debt restructuring. Aggressive write-offs and early-stage credit monitoring.

    Sector Concentration Construction, Agriculture, and Retail. Extractives (Mining/Oil), Manufacturing, and Telecommunications.

    The outlook for 2026

    As the second quarter of the year approaches, the “Confidence vs. NPL” tug-of-war will define the strength of Ghana’s financial sector. If banks can successfully bring down their NPL ratios while capitalizing on the rising business sentiment, the economy could see a significant boost in credit-led growth.

    For now, the central bank’s message to the market is one of “watchful optimism.” The sky is clearing, but the ground remains muddy.

     

     

     

     

  • The Financial Sector Digital Fortress: Inside the BoG’s new shield against cyber warfare

    The Financial Sector Digital Fortress: Inside the BoG’s new shield against cyber warfare

    ​By Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

    ​In an era where the battlefield for national security has shifted from physical borders to fiber-optic cables, Ghana has just fortified its most critical asset: its financial heartbeat.

     

    ​On Wednesday, March 25, 2026, the commissioning of the Security Operations Centre (SOC) at the Bank Square didn’t just add a new facility to the Accra skyline; it signaled the birth of a digital fortress. Led by the Chief of Staff, Hon. Julius Debrah alongside Governor Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama and First Deputy Governor Dr. Zakari Mumuni, the event marked a definitive end to the “wait-and-see” approach to cybersecurity.

    ​

    The Invisible Threat

     

    ​As Ghana’s economy aggressively digitizes from mobile money interoperability to the rise of fintech startups the surface area for cyberattacks has expanded exponentially. Hackers no longer need to breach a physical vault when they can attempt to siphon billions through a line of malicious code.

     

    ​The SOC is the Bank of Ghana’s answer to this evolution. Acting as a centralized nerve center, the facility is designed to monitor the entire financial ecosystem in real time. It isn’t just looking for “viruses”; it is hunting for sophisticated, state-sponsored threats and coordinated financial fraud before they hit the balance sheets of ordinary Ghanaians.

     

    ​Beyond Walls and Wires

    ​What makes this milestone significant isn’t just the hardware. According to Dr. Zakari Mumuni, the SOC represents a shift in resilience.

     

    ​”The question in modern banking is no longer if a threat will occur, but when,” a technical expert at the launch noted. “The SOC ensures that when that ‘when’ happens, the response is measured in milliseconds, not days.”

     

    ​The integration of the SOC at Bank Square allows for:

    ​Threat Intelligence Sharing: A “neighborhood watch” for banks, where a threat detected at one institution is immediately neutralized across the entire network.

     

    ​24/7 Vigilance: A dedicated team of elite cyber-analysts working around the clock to safeguard the integrity of the Cedi.

     

    ​Proactive Defense: Using AI and machine learning to predict vulnerabilities in the financial architecture before they can be exploited.

     

    ​A Legacy of Stability

     

    ​For Hon. Julius Debrah and the leadership at the Bank of Ghana, this move is about more than technology—it is about trust. In a global economy, investors go where they feel safe. By establishing one of the most advanced SOCs in the sub-region, Ghana is positioning itself as the safest financial hub in West Africa.

     

    ​As the ribbon was cut on Wednesday, the message was clear: Ghana’s digital gates are now manned by a sentry that never sleeps. In the high-stakes world of global finance, the Bank of Ghana has ensured that the nation’s wealth remains exactly where it belongs protected, stable, and secure.

  • Bank of Ghana Boosts Financial Cybersecurity with New Operations Centre at Bank Square 

    Bank of Ghana Boosts Financial Cybersecurity with New Operations Centre at Bank Square 

    ​In a decisive move to fortify the nation’s financial borders, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) officially commissioned its state-of-the-art Security Operations Centre (SOC) on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.

     

    The ceremony, held at the newly developed Bank Square, was led by the Chief of Staff, Hon. Julius Debrah, alongside the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama.

     

    ​The commissioning marks a pivotal advancement in Ghana’s digital infrastructure. The SOC is designed as a high-tech, centralized hub dedicated to the 24/7 monitoring, detection, and mitigation of cybersecurity threats. By utilizing real-time data analytics and advanced threat intelligence, the facility will provide an essential shield for the country’s increasingly digitized financial ecosystem.

     

    ​A Fortress for the Financial Sector

     

    ​Speaking at the event, Hon. Julius Debrah emphasized the government’s commitment to digital security as a pillar of national stability.

     

    ​”As our financial services move further into the digital realm, the risks we face evolve just as quickly. This Security Operations Centre is not just a building; it is a statement of our resilience and a proactive step in ensuring that every Ghanaian’s financial data and the nation’s assets are protected from global cyber threats,” the Chief of Staff noted.

     

    ​The Governor, Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, who was accompanied by the First Deputy Governor, Dr. Zakari Mumuni, highlighted that the SOC is part of a broader “FICSOC” (Financial Industry Security Operations Centre) initiative. This project aims to integrate the central bank’s defenses with those of commercial banks and other key stakeholders.

     

    ​Enhancing Global Confidence

     

    ​The establishment of the SOC at Bank Square is expected to enhance international investor confidence by demonstrating Ghana’s adherence to global cybersecurity standards.

     

    According to Dr. Mumuni, the center will allow the BoG to respond to “evolving cyber risks” with unprecedented speed, ensuring that the banking sector remains robust against hacks, fraud, and system disruptions.

     

    ​The commissioning of the SOC is the latest in a series of reforms by the current BoG leadership aimed at modernizing the central bank and safeguarding the digital economy.

     

    ​Key Features of the new SOC:

    ​Real-Time Surveillance: Constant tracking of suspicious activities across the financial network.

     

    ​Rapid Incident Response: Automated and manual protocols to neutralize threats before they escalate.

     

    ​Centralized Threat Intelligence: A shared data pool to help commercial banks anticipate emerging malware and phishing trends.

  • Mobile Money transactions surge to GH¢447.4bn as Ghana’s digital economy explodes in 2026

    Mobile Money transactions surge to GH¢447.4bn as Ghana’s digital economy explodes in 2026

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    Ghana’s transition toward a “cash-lite” society has hit a massive new milestone, with the total value of mobile money (MoMo) transactions skyrocketing to GH¢447.4 billion by the end of February 2026.

    The latest Summary of Economic and Financial Data from the Bank of Ghana (BoG) reveals an unprecedented appetite for digital payments, as citizens and businesses increasingly abandon physical cash in favor of the speed and security of mobile platforms.

    The GH¢447.4 billion figure represents a significant jump from previous quarters, signaling that the mobile money ecosystem is no longer just for person-to-person transfers. It has evolved into the primary engine for retail payments, utility settlements, and even high-value business transactions.

    Key drivers of the growth:

    ● Merchant Integration: Thousands of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) across the country have integrated MoMo as a standard payment option.

    ● Interoperability Success: The seamless movement of funds between different networks and bank accounts has reduced friction for users.

    ● Government Digitalization: The mandatory use of digital channels for statutory payments—such as taxes, port charges, and passport fees—has forced a rapid adoption curve.

    The “Ghanapay” and fintech factor

    Beyond the traditional telecom providers (MTN, Telecel, and AT), the emergence of Ghanapay the banking industry’s unified mobile money service has added a new layer of competition and liquidity to the market.

    “What we are seeing is the democratization of banking,” said a digital finance analyst in Accra. “With GH¢447.4 billion moving through these pipes in just two months, it’s clear that the mobile phone has become the most important financial tool in the average Ghanaian’s pocket.”

    Implications for monetary policy

    For the Bank of Ghana, this surge provides a double-edged sword. While it enhances financial inclusion, the sheer volume of “digital float” requires sophisticated monitoring to manage liquidity within the broader economy.

    The BoG has noted that the rise in MoMo usage has contributed to the stability of the Cedi by reducing the demand for physical cash and allowing for more transparent tracking of the money supply. However, it also places a premium on cyber.security, as the platform is now a critical piece of national infrastructure.

    The MoMo Momentum (Jan–Feb 2026)

    Metric                                                   Value / Status

    Total Transaction Value               GH¢447.4 Billion

    Active Mobile Money Accounts         ~24.5 Million

    Year-on-Year Growth                                ~32%

    Top Usage Categories              Retail, Utilities,P2P                                                              Transfers

    Challenges: the E-Levy and fraud

    Despite the record-breaking numbers, the sector still faces hurdles. Discussions regarding the E-Levy continue to trend on social media, with some users calling for further rate adjustments to encourage even higher transaction volumes.

    Additionally, the Bank of Ghana and the Ghana Chamber of Telecommunications have intensified their “No PIN Sharing” campaigns as fraudsters attempt to capitalize on the increased flow of digital wealth.

    The road ahead

    As the first quarter of 2026 draws to a close, the GH¢447.4 billion benchmark suggests that Ghana is well on its way to becoming a regional leader in fintech. With the upcoming launch of the Digital Cedi (eCedi) pilot expansion, the lines between traditional banking and mobile money are expected to blur even further, cementing Ghana’s status as a digital-first economy.

     

     

     

     

     

  • Ghana’s gold exports expand sharply, import bill shrinks …1st two months of 2026 as compared with 2025

    Ghana’s gold exports expand sharply, import bill shrinks …1st two months of 2026 as compared with 2025

    By Toma Imirhe

    Data released by the Bank of Ghana last week reveals that the country’s merchandise trade surplus for the first two months of 2026 was US$3,689.7 million (equivalent to 3.0% of Gross Domestic Product) which was up by 72.54% on the US$2,136.7 million (1.9% of GDP) made during the corresponding two months of 2025.

    But while the primary cause of this surge in the trade surplus was a 32.5% increase in total export earnings, fuelled by a nearly doubling of foreign exchange income from gold sales during the first two months of this year, an equally important, yet largely unacknowledged factor was an unusual marginal drop in the import bill. In January and February 2026, Ghana’s total import bill was US$2,516.3 million, down 1.2% from the US$2,548.3 million incurred during the corresponding period of 2025.

    This was very unusual. Ghana’s import bill tends to rise by the year – with the notable exception of 2023 when the steep depreciation of the cedi amid huge foreign exchange shortages forced a fall in imports – and in 2026, the cedi’s major appreciation and a significant fall in commercial bank lending rates generated fears of a surge in imports by traders armed with cheaper credit to buy cheaper foreign exchange.

    However the reverse happened and even though, during the first two months of this year, oil imports increased slightly to US$852.7 million, up from US$823.7 million in 2025, non-oil imports contracted significantly to US$1,663.6 million, down 3.5% from US$1,724.6 million during the corresponding two months of last year. More surprisingly, this was achieved at a time that economic growth remains strong. GDP growth for 2025 was an impressive 6% and although growth figures for the start of 2026 have not been made available, early data on economic activity levels emanating from the central bank suggests that this was carried over into 2026.

    Analysts are suggesting that the stemming of the merchandise import bill at a time of strong economic growth indicates significant successes in import substitution with regards to finished goods, intermediate production inputs or both. This gives hope that Ghana may finally be reducing its inordinate import dependency, a requisite for direly needed increased job creation.

    Although the slight reduction in the import bill took many economists by surprise, the sharp increase in export revenues was easily the bigger factor driving the substantial expansion of the merchandise trade surplus.

    Yet despite the overall increase in export earnings, its structure gives cause for concern; while gold export revenue increased significantly during the first two months of this year, as compared with the corresponding period of 2025, all the other export categories cocoa, oil and non-traditional exports all saw their revenues decline, indicating an increasing, and already inordinate, reliance on gold revenues.

    Gold revenues for the first two months of 2026, at US$4,257.4 million were 84.1% higher than 2025’s US$2,312.8 million. However cocoa’s export revenues declined from US$1194.7 million to US$956.3 million; oil’s revenues fell from US$581.3 million to US$451.5 million; and non-traditional exports shrank from US$596.2 million to US$451.5 million.

    This means that for the first two months of 2026, gold exports accounted for 68.6% of Ghana’s total export revenues, up from 49.4% during the corresponding year of 2025, creating the spectre of the country moving towards becoming a mono-product exporter.