News Guide Africa

Tag: Prof Godfred Bopkin

  • Using monetary policy to control inflation: Economists look elsewhere for solution

    Using monetary policy to control inflation: Economists look elsewhere for solution

    Adnan Adams Mohammed

    Two renowned economists from the country’s leading universities have all flagged down the potency of using the monetary policies to control the recent leapfrogging inflation rate.

    They believe the Bank of Ghana’s measures put in place to curb the consistent rise in inflation are either not working or the situation is not being diagnosed properly. Both, are thereby calling on the government through the finance ministry to consider other factors such as the fiscal space.

    The Ghana Statistical Service last week announced that, increment in transport fares and unbearable food prices pushed  May inflation rate to 27.6%. This is against 23.6% recorded in April which was about 4% jump from March inflation of 19.4%. The inflationary trend pushed the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the BoG to tighten the policy rate by 200 basis points from 17% in April to 19% in May. Yet, the according to Professor of Finance and Economics at University of Ghana, the monetary policy has proven to be inefficient and has therefore asked the government to adopt a fiscal policy approach toward mitigating inflation in the country.

    “If you look at the disparity between the inflation and the policy rate and the Treasury bill rate, it tells you there’s a lot more work to be done and we cannot look to the monetary policy because the problem is from the fiscal side”, Prof. Godfred Alufar Bokpin of the UG Business School. “The monetary policy is constrained in terms of how we can deploy that effectively to contain inflation and engineer growth.”

    Also, an economist at the University of Cape Coast has opined that the Central Bank maybe misdiagnosing the problem. He said, the increase in the BoG policy rate by 200 basis points to 19% is in response to risk to the economy; high inflation, weak financial inter-mediation and fiscal stress, which is expected to trigger lending rate hike.

    “The measures taken in an environment of volatile depreciation promises rather further inflation”, Professor John Gatsi, Dean of School of Business and Finance at UCC said in reaction to the MPC’s announcement, last week. “High inflation and upward lending rate will undermine government contracts execution and create new levels of arears due to cost implications for procurement of materials.”

    Prof Gatsi expatiated that, a number of projects maybe abandoned due to inflation, depreciation and cost of borrowing and warned that there maybe too much pressure on the banks as cost of mobilizing funds continue to increase with the possibility of distorted returns on placement of funds with the banks.

    According to the Government Statistician, Professor Kobina Annim, the rate of inflation for Transport (39.0%), Household Equipment and Maintenance (33.8%), Housing, Water, Gas and Electricity (32.3%) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (30.1.6%) were higher than the national average (27.6%).

    In May, 2022, 12 of the 13 divisions recorded inflation rates higher than the rolling average from June, 2021 to May, 2022.

    The data showed that Food inflation in May, 2022 was 30.1%, compared with 26.6% in April 2022. Non-food Inflation was however 25.7% in May, 2022, as against 21.3% the previous month.

    Meanwhile, Prof Bopkin has posited that, we cannot look to monetary policy to tackle this.

    “We must shift our attention to the fiscal side so that the fiscal side will respond appropriately with the discipline that it requires,” he stressed.

    “Once the source of the inflation is largely fiscal, then there’s a limit to how far you can deploy the monetary policy to bring down inflation and then engineer growth.

    “More so, because of the monetary policy framework that we are using under inflation targeting, because for one key requirement for inflation targeting to be effective, it is fiscal discipline. Once you deny the monetary side the fiscal discipline, then there’s no way they can use the monetary policy effectively to bring down inflation and engineer growth.

    At a press briefing, fortnight ago, the central bank said the growth prospects in the domestic economy remain positive and the Bank’s high-frequency indicators point to continued and increased momentum in economic activities with private sector credit showing some improvement in real terms, despite the increased price pressures.

    “All these are resulting in a closure of the negative output gap. The banking sector remains robust, with sustained growth in total assets, investments and deposits. However, business and consumer confidence have dipped, reflecting the sharp depreciation of the currency and the general high inflationary environment, which has resulted in higher input costs for businesses. A quick turnaround, with more confidence-building measures to counter these conditions, would provide further boost to the real economy”, it added.

    On fiscal policy implementation, the Committee observed that execution of the budget for the first quarter was broadly in line with targets although there was a minor deviation in the deficit target, stemming largely from low revenue receipts.

    It is the expectation of the Committee that fiscal consolidation will take hold gradually and the mid-year budget review will provide further fiscal fine-tuning to ensure that the fiscal consolidation efforts stay on track.

    The MPC said despite the improvement in the trade balance due to favourable commodity prices, the external sector has weakened somewhat due to developments in the capital and financial account.

  • Economists, MoMo vendors and users respond negatively to E-Levy passage

    Economists, MoMo vendors and users respond negatively to E-Levy passage

    Adnan Adams Mohammed

    Senior economists including a former finance minister, Mobile Money vendors and users have reacted negatively to the passage of the Electronic Transactions Levy bill into law by the current government.

    The bill was passed into law last week by one-sided parliament due to a walkout staged by minority NDC members of parliament and subsequently filing court action at the Supreme Court for stay of execution to challenge the ‘lack of quorum’ in the House at the time of passage of the bill into law.

    Mobile Money (MoMo) vendors across the country complained that, there were madrush withdrawals at their various mobile money vending outlets causing them to run out of cash which has tendency to collapse their petty business in the circumstances of the current economic hardship. However, it took the president, Nana Akufo Addo two working days to assent to the E-Levy law despite majority of Ghanaians haven openly kicked against the levy, especially taxing MoMo. An economics professor at the University of Ghana Business School shared his disappointment at the government for ignoring a better and progressive tax alternatives to push through the regressive E-Levy.

    “There are more efficient, progressive, fairer and equitable means of generating more tax revenue by improving efficiency along with existing tax handles. How much this e-levy can raise is far lower than what we could have gained if we had passed the exemption bill in 2019”, Prof. Godfred Bokpin intuited. “During the 2019 SONA, the President told us that the biggest threat to Ghana’s revenue base is an exemption and told us that in 2018 alone, Ghana lost GHS4.66 billion and assured us that the new bill is being sent to Parliament. After all these years, nothing has been done. But look at the urgency with which we want to pass the e-levy. When you do that, you’re creating some sort of imbalance that says that the economy is set up to favour foreign capital against domestic capital formation and that is unfortunate.”

    Also, Dr. Kwabena Duffuor, a former Finance Minister, reacted sadly to the news of the passage. He described the President Nana Akufo-Addo’s administration and the NPP MPs as not a ‘listening government’.

    Lamenting on his Facebook wall the morning after the e-levy was passed, Dr. Duffuor said, “The NPP has progressed in their passage of the unpopular e-levy bill. May it be on record that despite the hardship of the Ghanaian people and disaffection for the e-levy, the NPP ignored these concerns and added to our tax burden.”

    Just like many well-meaning and experienced economic specialists, Dr. Kwabena Duffuor has, in the past, offered several suggestions on alternatives to the E-levy.

    Dr. Duffuor, in an interview he granted on Starr FM in February this year, had said; “Currently in Ghana, foreign interests are largely the main beneficiaries of our extractive sector at the expense of Ghanaians who benefit from very little revenue from our natural resources”.

    “We must start looking at the sector we have ignored over the years – the extractive sector. A well-managed natural resources centre has emerged as the safest route to prosperity in many developed countries such as the USA, UK, and Germany. We must go back and renegotiate our mining agreements for higher revenues rather than stick to colonial agreements to the detriment of our people”.

    The levy rate was amended from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent and will apply to electronic transactions that are more than GH¢100 daily.

    Critics of the proposal have warned that this new levy will negatively impact the Fintech space, as well as hurt low-income people and those outside the formal banking sector.

    The levy has been the source of tension in Parliament since it was introduced in the 2022 budget. The tensions culminated in a scuffle between lawmakers in Parliament in December 2021.

    The government has, however, argued the levy would widen the tax net and that could raise an extra GH¢6.9 billion in 2022.

    There are also concerns that the government may securitize proceeds from the e-levy to raise extra revenue.