With just a few days to go before the year-end festivities, Ghana’s financial and commodity markets are exhibiting a mix of seasonal slowdown in activity and continued underlying strength with regards to ;performance, according to traders, regulators and market observers.
Equity markets have remained resilient as 2025 draws to a close, with the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) Composite Index continuing its upward trajectory, despite signs of reduced trading activity on the ground.
On Thursday, December 18, 2025, the GSE Composite Index advanced to 8,745.74 points, adding to a string of gains during the fourth quarter of this year and lifting overall market capitalization to about GH¢168.97 billion.
Trading volumes, however, have been declining, with last Thursday’s session seeing just 1.52 million shares traded valued at GH¢6.15 million, down sharply from all three earlier sessions last week.
A broker at one Accra firm noted, “There’s still interest and healthy price momentum, particularly in large capitalized stocks like MTN Ghana and listed financial stocks, but clients are beginning to step back from active trading as the holidays approach.”
Indeed, while earlier in the year markets posted robust year-to-date returns and broad gains across many listed stocks, daily activity typically thins in mid-December as institutional investors finalize positions before year-end.
There will only be three trading days this week since Thursday and Friday are public holidays to commemorate Christmas Day and Boxing Day respectively. Next week there will be only four trading days rather than five since New Year’s Day a Thursday will be a public holiday too. Traditionally formal economic activity conducted from offices experience a lull during these last two weeks of the year.
The Ghana Fixed Income Market (GFIM) the principal platform for trading government and corporate bonds and treasury instruments – has reflected continued depth and robust cumulative activity through 2025, with total traded volumes reported over GH¢214 billion by October of this year.
According to market observers, much of the year’s strength has been driven by sustained investor interest in sovereign instruments, even as liquidity conditions were tightened by domestic debt management programmes earlier in the year.
However, a senior fixed-income trader with a multinational bank told Economy Times “We’re seeing a bit of a lull in outright volume this fortnight – a mix of traders booking profits and holding off on new positions. But overall the market has depth and solid participation, especially in government securities.”
On the inter-bank foreign exchange market, the Bank of Ghana has signaled a scaled-back foreign exchange intermediation programme for December, reflecting typical seasonal softening in demand for foreign exchange as corporates and businesses close books and prepare for holidays.
The Bank of Ghana (BoG) auctioned about US$100 million each on December 2 and 4 and subsequently reduced its planned monthly target to around US $800 million, down from higher volumes earlier in the year.
Despite this, daily inter-bank market data shows the Ghana cedi trading around GHS 11.49 to the U.S. dollar in the third week of December, suggesting orderly conditions and relatively contained volatility ahead of the festive season.
A currency trader at one commercial bank in Accra said, “The cedi has been calmer of late, partly because the central bank’s FX interventions earlier in the year bolstered reserves and guided expectations. This time of year simply sees lower corporate flow demand, which naturally reduces turnover.”
Ghana Commodity Exchange (GCX) experienced strong growth in commodity trading in 2024 driven by maize and soybean contracts, with turnover more than doubling to approximately GH¢24.23 million and significant increases in traded volumes and settlement values. Although performance data has not been released for any part of 2025, market sources close to GCX activity say trading in key agricultural futures and spot contracts has remained active up until mid-December, particularly as agribusinesses hedge ahead of post-harvest movements. However, they also observe that the approach of year-end is typically accompanied by quieter deal-making.
Across markets, smaller brokers and retail investors are reporting a noticeable shift into “holiday mode.” One Accra-based retail investor lamented that many brokers have already reduced operating hours or trading and settlements staff are absent, making execution slower and dampening short-term turnover.
A bond dealer at a local brokerage added, “We are seeing fewer quote requests and lower bid-offer interaction as institutional desks wrap up positions, which is a typical pattern every December.”
Regulators emphasize that seasonal slowdowns are normal and that underlying fundamentals across markets remain supportive of renewed activity in early 2026.
Bank of Ghana officials frame the moderated FX activity as a transitional phase, noting that policy and market infrastructure improvements through 2025 – including stronger reserve buffers and transparent FX operations – have set the stage for more resilient markets in the new year.
Analysts expect that early 2026 market activity will feature renewed trading vigour across equity, fixed income, FX and commodity segments, as institutional investors reposition and new economic data emerges.
For now, Ghana’s financial and commodity markets appear to be blending a holiday-influenced slowdown in turnover with continued positive fundamentals, suggesting that while year-end celebrations may temper activity, the broader trajectory remains upwards.
By Toma Imirhe
