News Guide Africa

Tag: Mahama administration

  • From raw ore to refined wealth: Inside Ghana’s bold blueprint to become Africa’s gold processing hub

    From raw ore to refined wealth: Inside Ghana’s bold blueprint to become Africa’s gold processing hub

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    For over a century, the story of Ghana’s gold has been one of departure. From the deep shafts of Obuasi to the alluvial plains of the Western Region, the precious metal has traditionally followed a one-way path: unearthed from Ghanaian soil, packed into crates as raw dore, and shipped to refineries in Switzerland, Dubai, or India.

    However, a seismic shift is occurring in the corridors of power and across the mining heartlands of the country. Ghana is no longer content with being just a producer; it wants to be a processor.

    A new, aggressive industrial agenda is taking shape, promising that by the year 2030, the age-old practice of exporting raw gold will come to a definitive end.

    A directive of sovereignty

    The vision for this transformation has been articulated with increasing clarity by the National Democratic Congress (NDC) led government, spearheaded by President John Dramani Mahama.

    Speaking on the government’s industrialization roadmap, CEO of Ghana Gold Board, Sammy Gyamfi, recently revealed a bold directive: under the Mahama administration, no raw gold will leave the shores of Ghana by 2030.

    “It is a matter of national economic sovereignty,” Gyamfi noted in a recent series of media engagements. “We cannot continue to be a nation that exports its wealth in its most basic form only to buy it back as finished products at a premium. The directive is clear value addition is the only way to secure the future of our youth and the stability of our currency.”

    This 2030 deadline is not merely a symbolic target; it is a policy ultimatum designed to force the hand of an industry that has remained largely extractive for decades.

    The goal is to ensure that every ounce of gold mined within Ghana’s borders is refined to 24-carat bullion standards right here on Ghanaian soil.

    The quiet evolution: raw exports on the decline

    While 2030 serves as the ultimate finish line, the wheels of change are already turning. Recent data and official statements suggest that the volume of raw gold exports is already on a downward trajectory.

    “It has already started,” Gyamfi told Joy News, pointing to a strategic shift where more mining outputs are being diverted toward local refining processes. This transition from raw gold to bullion is not just a policy proposal; it is an active economic pivot.

    The decline in raw exports is a calculated result of increased local capacity. As Ghana strengthens its refining infrastructure, the traditional “dig and ship” model is being squeezed out. This shift is expected to provide the Bank of Ghana with a more direct pipeline to accumulate gold reserves, providing a critical buffer for the Ghana Cedi against global market shocks.

    Global giants take notice

    Ghana’s ambition to become a “Gold Hub” is resonating far beyond the borders of West Africa. The international community is watching, and more importantly, investing. Reports indicate that global refinery giants, companies that dominate the precious metals markets in London and Zurich, are now eyeing Ghana as a strategic base for their African operations.

    The logic is simple: by establishing a presence in Ghana, these global players can tap into the vast output of the world’s leading gold producers. The vision is for Ghana to serve as the refinery destination for the entire sub-region, processing gold from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea.

    “If we build the capacity to refine to London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) standards, there is no reason why gold from across West Africa shouldn’t be processed in Accra,” Gyamfi explained. This would effectively transform Ghana into a financial services and industrial powerhouse, moving the nation from the periphery of the global gold trade to its very centre.

    Beyond the bars: the ripple effect

    The transformation of the gold sector is expected to create a “multiplier effect” across the Ghanaian economy. Economists point to several key areas of impact:

    Job Creation: Refining is a high-tech industry. It requires metallurgists, chemists, security experts, and logistics professionals. By moving down the value chain, Ghana can create thousands of high-paying jobs that go beyond manual labor in the pits.

    The Jewelry and Minting Industry: With a ready supply of 24-carat gold, local artisans and industrial jewelry manufacturers will have the raw materials needed to compete globally. This could give rise to a “Made in Ghana” luxury brand.

    Revenue Retention: Refining locally allows the government to capture more tax revenue and ensures that the “premium” added during the refining process stays within the local banking system.

    Challenges on the horizon

    Despite the optimism, the road to 2030 is paved with challenges. Achieving LBMA certification, the “gold standard” for refineries, requires rigorous transparency, environmental compliance, and consistent quality. Furthermore, the government must navigate complex contracts with multinational mining firms that have long-standing agreements to ship ore to their own offshore refineries.

    There is also the critical issue of the small-scale mining sector. Integrating “galamsey” operators into a formalized refining value chain remains one of the most difficult hurdles for any administration.

    A new era for the Gold Coast

    As the 2030 deadline approaches, the narrative of Ghana’s mineral wealth is being rewritten. For centuries, the “Gold Coast” was defined by what it gave away. Today, it is being defined by what it keeps, what it builds, and what it refines.

    The shift from raw gold to bullion is more than just an industrial policy; it is a statement of intent. If the “Mahama Directive” holds and the global giants continue to pivot toward Accra, the year 2030 could mark the moment Ghana finally turned its “resource curse” into a refined, sustainable blessing.

     

     

     

  • Mahama Administration prioritizes gold as the new economic anchor

    Mahama Administration prioritizes gold as the new economic anchor

    By Adnan Adams Mohammed

    In a move aimed at permanently decoupling Ghana’s economic fate from the volatility of external debt, the Mahama administration has positioned the gold sector as the primary engine for the nation’s “Golden Reset.”

    However, as the government moves to centralize control, experts are warning that the nation “cannot afford a second shock” if the transition is mismanaged.

    “Taking back control”: the Gyamfi doctrine

    Leading the charge for this structural overhaul, Sammy Gyamfi, a key figure in the administration’s economic communications, outlined a bold vision to end decades of “resource leakage.” Speaking at a high-level forum, Gyamfi declared that the gold sector is no longer just a mining industry but the cornerstone of Ghana’s foreign exchange (FX) stability.

    “For too long, our gold has left these shores with minimal benefit to the Ghanaian person,” Gyamfi stated. “We are taking back control. By ensuring that a significant percentage of gold produced locally stays within our sovereign reserves, we are building a bulletproof shield for the Cedi.”

    The plan involves a multi-pronged approach:

    The first prong is ending FX Leakages through new mandates that require mining firms to repatriate a higher portion of their export earnings through the Bank of Ghana.

    The second prong is the gold-for-stability swap which involves using physical gold as a primary reserve asset to back the national currency, reducing reliance on the US Dollar.

    The third prong is formalizing artisanal mining by bringing small-scale miners into the formal “GoldBod” (Gold Board) ecosystem to ensure every ounce produced contributes to the national treasury.

    The GoldBod risk: a warning against “second shocks”

    Despite the optimism from the Jubilee House, industry analysts and civil society groups are waving a yellow flag. A recent report from Citi Newsroom highlights a growing consensus that the newly formed Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) must operate with surgical precision.

    The memory of the 2022 financial crisis remains fresh, and critics argue that any operational failure or corruption within GoldBod could trigger a “second shock” to the economy. If the board fails to manage its new role as the sole off-taker and exporter effectively, it could disrupt supply chains, spook international mining conglomerates, and lead to a massive shortfall in anticipated revenue.

    “Ghana is putting all its eggs in one golden basket,” cautioned a senior researcher at the Centre for Democratic Development (CDD). “If GoldBod becomes a site for political patronage rather than technical excellence, the ‘Golden Reset’ could quickly turn into a gilded disaster.”

    Economic transformation or high-stakes gamble?

    The administration remains undeterred. Gyamfi emphasized that the “leaks” in the previous system referring to the era of the “Gilded King” were systemic and required a radical break from the past. He argued that the centralization of gold trade is not an act of “resource nationalism” but one of “economic survival.”

    As the government prepares to fully operationalize the sliding royalty scale and GoldBod’s trading floor, the eyes of the international market are on Accra. The success of this policy will determine if Ghana can finally transform its status from a “resource-rich but cash-poor” nation into a self-sustaining economic powerhouse.

     

     

     

     

  • The signs of a stable cedi/dollar exchange rate in 2025

     


    Ghana’s cedi shows signs of stability in 2025, driven by improved fiscal discipline, surging gold prices, and increased investor confidence.

     

     

    By Toma Imirhe & Elorm Desewu

    Considering that 2025 is another year during which Ghana will not have access to the international capital market it is only to be expected that both participants in the local economy and international direct investors would be nervous about the direction and quantum of the change in the exchange rate between the Ghanaian cedi and the United States dollar over the coming months.
    Indeed it would appear they have good reason to worry.

     

    The relative exchange stability enjoyed by the cedi during the latter years of the previous decade and the start of this one were primarily achieved by heavy borrowing of US dollars in the form of annual Eurobond issues of US$3 billion, most of which was used to prop up the supply of foreign exchange on the local currency market. However when the three international sovereign credit ratings agencies – Fitch, Moodys and Standard & Poors – all decided that Ghana’s public forex debt was unsustainable towards the end of 2022 and Bloomberg began justifying the resultant price discounts and consequent sharp rise in yields on Ghana-issued Eurobonds to investors still holding on to them, the real cost of this cavalier strategy became clear.

     

    Since then, the value of the cedi against the US dollar has fallen to barely a third of what it used to be, with a dollar trading for GHc5.56 by early April 2025 on the interbank forex market – and a significantly higher GHc6.10 on the retail market – compared with a little over GHc6 to a dollar as at the third quarter of 2022. Instructively the cedi’s free fall continued through to 2024, with the currency depreciating by 28% against the American greenback last year alone.

     

    But Ghana’s pivotal change of government from the erstwhile profligate Nana Akufo-Addo administration to the much more fiscally responsible incumbent President John Dramani Mahama administration, coupled with favourable developments in the country’s key international commodity export markets have changed the exchange rate trajectory sharply. While the cedi still depreciated sharply during the first quarter of 2025 while the Mahama administration was settling in – by 5.36% against the dollar – this was followed by marginal appreciation at the start of April which narrowed the year to date fall to less than 3%, and relative exchange rate stability since then.
    Speaking after the 123rd Monetary Policy Meeting in late March, Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Asiama, announced a set of measures aimed at stabilizing the Ghanaian cedi, as the currency faces continued pressure against major foreign currencies.
    These include tightening monetary policy to control inflation, enhancing foreign exchange reserves and structural reforms to address exchange rate misalignment.
    Dr. Asiama stresses the need for monetary and fiscal coordination, inflation control, and structural reforms to restore confidence in the cedi.

     

    “On top of the projected steady growth for 2025, the international markets have priced in a much stronger US economy stemming from the policies to be implemented by the new US administration. This has already instigated a stronger US dollar with implications for emerging markets and developing economies, including Ghana” he warns.
    “Complementary fiscal and monetary policies will therefore have to be carefully set to prevent spillovers to the Ghanaian economy.
    “External sector conditions remain positive, with sustained and stronger-than-programmed rebuilding of reserve buffers contributing to the stability of the domestic currency. The performance of the external sector (in 2024) was mainly driven by strong growth in gold exports, which also largely impacted positively on growth. In the outlook, the external sector is expected to remain strong as commodity prices remain favourable amid improvements in production.

     

    Overall, while the external sector conditions are expected to provide an anchor to exchange rate stability, key risks in the outlook including challenges in the energy sector will have to be closely monitored.”
    Importantly he is backing his words with concrete action. The Bank of Ghana supported the foreign exchange market with US$264.4 million in March 2025 alone to preserve the stability of the cedi.

     

    Indeed, such interventions reflect the growing size of Ghana’s gross international reserves and the consequent ability to both provide forex liquidity in the local market and directly intervene in it when deemed necessary.
    Easily the biggest contributor to this newfound strength is gold, which is continuously setting new international market price records by the week. The price of a fine ounce of gold is currently around US$3,227 and is rising so fast that even Goldman Sach’s earlier forecast of a closing price for the year of over US$3,500 now looks much too conservative.

     

    Apart from enjoying the direct benefits of the ongoing unprecedented price surge, it is also encouraging investment in increased production in Ghana and, more recently, concerted efforts by the new government to formalize small scale mining (most of which has been illegal and environmentally unfriendly) and take control of the sale of the gold it produces, much of which has been smuggled out in the past.

     

    Databank Research expects the new government to prioritize domestic mining, boosting gold production to bolster reserves. According to its Ghana Outlook report for 2025 “In the aftermath of the elections, the new government may focus on enhancing domestic mining companies to boost gold production.

     

    This comes at a time when gold reserves have been steadily increasing in recent years, standing at 37.52 metric tonnes as of the second quarter of 2024, with projections indicating a rise above the levels recorded in 2023. We believe the move will further augment gold reserves and offer a potential cushion for the Cedi.”

     

    Oil prices are falling too but this is a double edged sword, favouring consumers who might be able to enjoy price cuts at the pump on imported petroleum products, and lower diesel import costs for powering thermal electricity stations, but putting government’s forex revenue target from crude oil exports in jeopardy.

     

    Cocoa prices are still hovering not too far behind the over US$10,000 per ton they peaked at last year and Ghana’s production looks set to exceed its 617,000 target for the current crop season, but about a third of this is going into fulfilling supply contracts that the country defaulted on during the previous disastrous crop season.

     

    Commodity prices on international markets – and to a lesser extent, production – are outside the complete purview of government itself, but the Mahama administration is proving prudent in the fiscal management and economic policy measures that it can control and these are already yielding palpable results which are not going unnoticed both at home and abroad.
    Databank Research predicts that political stability after the 2024 elections is expected to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio inflows, easing speculative pressures on the cedi. Disciplined fiscal policies are projected to reinforce this recovery.

     

    “We expect a successful 2024 election to bring renewed confidence in the Ghanaian economy which should lead to increased foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows. This development would bolster investment sentiments around the cedi and reduce speculative attacks on the currency,” Databank Research notes.

     

    Indeed, following Ghana’s Eurobond debt restructuring in 2024, Moody’s and Fitch upgraded the country’s ratings, with Moody’s moving its issuer rating from “Caa3” to “Caa2” and assigning a positive outlook.
    Databank also predicts further upgrades as economic indicators improve, strengthening the cedi.

     

    “Following the successful Eurobond debt rework in the 3rd quarter of 2024, global rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch upgraded Ghana’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings. Moody’s upgraded the issuer rating from “Caa3” to “Caa2” and “Ca”, respectively, and assigned a positive outlook,” Databank notes.

     

    “Fitch Solutions followed with the upgrades, assigning a “CCC+” to Ghana’s new USD bonds from the initial “CCC”. We expect a further upgrade as the rating agencies cited that continuous improvement in economic indicators would attract higher upgrades. We expect these developments to improve sentiments around the Cedi and allow for its stability,” the research firm predicts.

     

    Inevitably quantitative forecasts for the cedi’s exchange rate performance against the US dollar vary from one forecasting firm to another, depending on the specific nature of their econometric modelling and trend analyses. But instructively none of the forecasts predict major depreciation during 2025.

     

    Coin Codex, an American economic and financial forecaster expects that in 2025, the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Ghanaian Cedi is anticipated to range between GHc 15.06 and GHc 16.91, leading to an average annualized price of GHc 15.90.

     

    World renown accounting and management consulting firm Deloitte predicts that in 2025, the improved investor confidence arising from the relatively peaceful election, the conclusion of the government’s debt restructuring negotiations, periodic International Monetary Fund (IMF) disbursements and higher gold export receipts will boost the international reserves level of the country and support the cedi’s value.

     

    Gov Capital Forecasts expects the US dollar to exchange at 15.70 by the end of the third quarter of this year.

     

    What all these forecasts have in common though is that the exchange rate will remain more or less stable through 2025 which means currency traders planning to take positions against the cedi – a major cause of cedi depreciation in the past – would be better off investing in government or Bank of Ghana bills which offer better returns on their investment.