Adnan Adams Mohammed
The Minister Finance announced last week moderate macroeconomic targets for the year 2024 as captured in the 2024 budget.
Guided by the medium-term policy objectives, the government is targeting a moderate real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at an average rate of 2.8 percent in 2024-2027.
With Non-Oil Real GDP expected to grow at an average rate of 2.1 percent in 2024-2027 and 5 percent from 2027 onwards.
But, for what can be described as over-ambitious, the government targets inflation to be within the target band of 8±2 percent by end-2026. However, inflation is expected to end 2024 at 15.0%.
“Inflation is expected to remain within the IMF programme’s Monetary Policy Consultation Clause (MPCC) of 29.4 percent, with a symmetric band of 4.0 percent at the end of 2023, and trend further down within the medium-term target of 8±2 percent by end-December 2025”, Ken Ofori-Atta read.
A Primary Balance on Commitment basis to a surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP in 2024, and 1.5 percent of GDP in 2025 onwards; and
Meanwhile, Gross International Reserves is also expected to cover at least 3.5 months of imports by end-2027.
“The Services sector is expected to remain the dominant sector over the medium-term in terms of percentage contribution to overall national output, followed by Industry and Agriculture”, the minister emphasized.
“The external sector performance will largely depend on the conclusion of negotiations with the country’s external creditors. Also, the Bank of Ghana’s policy thrust will remain focused on increasing external buffers through sustainable means. The exchange rate is expected to remain stable, supported by continued progress with the implementation of the IMF Supported Programme.
“Consistent with the fiscal and debt sustainability objectives over the medium-term, the commitment basis primary balance has been programmed to improve from an estimated deficit of 0.5 percent of GDP in 2023 to a surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP in 2024.”
