By Elorm Desewu
Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product, (GDP) growth is expected to strengthen in 2022, before slowing in 2023-24, then pick up again in 2025-26, according to the Economic Intelligence Unit report.
Investment in new oilfields will be slow, delaying a resurgence of real GDP growth to pre-coronavirus levels, despite efforts by the government to facilitate industrialisation under the Covid-19 Alleviation and Revitalisation of Enterprises Support programme, says EIU.
Ghana’s economy grew 5.4 per cent in 2021 compared with 0.5 per cent in 2020, the Ghana Statistical Service said last week.
Professor Samuel Annim, the Government Statistician, said the quarterly GDP growth rate, including oil and gas, was 7.0 per cent (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to 4.3 per cent in the same period of 2020.
He said the GDP growth rate without oil and gas (Non-Oil GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2021 was 7.6 per cent which compares to the same period in 2020 with a growth rate of 5.7 per cent.
The GDP estimate (including oil) for 2021 was GH₵175,057.3 million, while the estimate for 2020 was GH₵166,157.2 million, meanwhile GDP estimate (excluding oil) for 2021 was GH₵163,430.4 million.
The value recorded for 2020 was GH₵152,869.2 million.
He said the real GDP in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 7.0 per cent in the fourth quarter (October to December) of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.
The Government Statistician said when seasonally adjusted, the real GDP increased by 1.8 per cent in the fourth quarter (October to December) of 2021; 0.3 percentage point higher than what was recorded in the third quarter (July to September) of the same year.
The Information & Communication, Manufacturing, and Crops sub-sectors were the main drivers of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2021.
The fourth quarter of 2021 GDP at current prices was estimated at GH₵ 128,623.4 million with a corresponding value recorded for the same period of 2020 was GH₵ 106,536.2 million.
On the sectors contributions to GDP, the services sector recorded the highest growth of 50 per cent for the quarter at basic prices followed by Industry and Agriculture, which were 29 percent and 21 per cent respectively.
Growth momentum is expected to moderate in the first half of 2022 due to the rising input costs triggered by the upward adjustments in petroleum prices. Also, the latest Bank of Ghana surveys results indicated softened consumer and business confidence, which may affect private sector production plans and investments. This notwithstanding, the gradual rebound in private sector credit will continue to drive the growth process in the near term.