The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seeking a three-month extension of Ghana’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, which is set to expire in May 2026, amid ‘broadly satisfactory’ review outcome with all performance criteria and indicative targets met.
The proposed extension would push the programme’s end date to August 2026, allowing for the implementation of reforms required for the sixth and final review.
IMF’s Executive Board approved Ghana’s fifth programme review, with the country having secured about US$2.8 billion in funding so far. However, the IMF is also proposing modifications to Ghana’s programme, including changes to Indicative Targets (ITs) and the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause (MPCC). These changes aim to accommodate macroeconomic developments while maintaining fiscal effort relative to GDP.
Despite progress, the IMF expressed concerns about Ghana’s economic outlook, citing risks from commodity price volatility, policy slippages, and delays in debt restructuring. Ghana remains at high risk of debt distress, with significant uncertainties around commodity prices and exchange rate movements.
Ghana currently ranks 4th in Africa with regards to the rankings of countries with the highest debt to the IMF, standing at Special Drawing Rights 2.85 billion ($4.13 billion) as of December 22, 2025.
Proposed programme modifications
The IMF is also proposing modifications to Ghana’s programme, including changes to the Indicative Targets (ITs) and the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause (MPCC).
The Fund explained that at the end of March 2026, the primary balance and non-oil revenue ITs will be modified to accommodate macroeconomic developments, while maintaining the fiscal effort relative to GDP.
In addition, the MPCC bands for December 2025 and March 2026 are expected to be adjusted downward to better reflect the impact of recent macroeconomic developments on expected disinflation trends.
Progress report
The Fund disclosed that three prior actions were completed for the fifth review. These include the audit of 2024 payables, the cleansing of the taxpayer registry and ledger data, and the submission of the 2026 budget to Parliament in line with programme objectives.
There has also been progress on previously missed structural benchmarks from the fourth review. The IMF said the strategy for state-owned banks, which was initially due in April 2024, was implemented in September 2025.
The Fund further praised the authorities for progress in operationalising indicative targets, which have been rephased in three stages. The first stage covers key aspects of the missed structural benchmarks and has been reset as a new end-March 2026 structural benchmark.
Out of the eleven structural benchmarks for the current ECF review, the IMF said four were met, two were implemented with delays, one was implemented as a prior action, one is expected to be implemented in December 2025, and three were missed.
The IMF noted that the end-June 2025 structural benchmark on merging certain statutory funds with their line ministries was not met, as the authorities opted for an alternative approach to achieve the programme’s objective of reforming earmarked funds.
Debt classification
While acknowledging Ghana’s progress in reducing total debt and securing restructuring agreements with some bilateral creditors, the IMF said it still considers the country to be at high risk of debt distress.
Although all debt sustainability indicators remain below their respective thresholds under the baseline scenario, the Fund said it applied judgment to maintain the high-risk classification.
According to the IMF, this reflects significant uncertainties around commodity prices and exchange rate movements, as well as elevated rollover risks and independent power producer payment obligations.
Key structural reforms, including overdue measures from previous reviews.
“The Ghanaian authorities have continued to make significant headways on their public debt restructuring. They have signed bilateral debt relief agreements with many members of Ghana’s Official Creditor Committee and finalized several Agreements in Principle with other external commercial creditors”, it said.
“The authorities have also intensified engagement with their remaining external commercial creditors on a restructuring consistent with program parameters and comparability of treatment”, it added.
“Growth through September 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by strong services and agriculture. Inflation is now within the Bank of Ghana’s target range, and the external sector strengthened on robust gold and cocoa exports. Reserves accumulation surpassed ECF targets, the cedi appreciated, and Ghana’s debt trajectory improved significantly”, it further stated.
It also alluded that Ghana is on track to achieve a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP by year-end, stressing that the 2026 budget, submitted to Parliament, aligns with fiscal programme objectives and the new fiscal responsibility framework, while accommodating developmental and security needs.
According to the Fund, this will be driven by revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalisation, with safeguards for vulnerable groups.
However, sustaining fiscal discipline requires stronger revenue administration, improved public financial management, and better oversight of State-Owned Enterprises, which pose significant fiscal risks.
Outlook and Risks
Despite the improvement in Ghana’s macroeconomic outlook, the IMF warned that it faces significant downside risks.
These mainly stem from a deterioration of the external environment (especially related to commodity price volatility) and confidence effects from policy and reform slippages.
It concluded that delays in completing Ghana’s comprehensive debt restructuring also entails some risks.
By Adnan Adams Mohammed
