By Elorm Desewu
The Bank of Ghana, (BoG) has blamed the recent sharp depreciation of the cedi on fiscal operations of the government.
According to the BoG, the Ghana cedi came under pressure in September and October on fiscal concerns. Pressure to the currency came from energy and corporate demand. Also, the strength of the US dollar weighed on the Ghana cedi.
However, this pressure has been partly moderated by the central banks special forex auction for Bulk Distribution Companies. Furthermore, the currency is being supported with inflows from the cocoa syndicated loan, mining, remittances and forex purchases from the mining companies.
However, as the dollar continues to strengthen due to policy rate hikes and U.S safe-haven status, the cedi may continue to experience some volatility in the near term. Also, Energy related and corporate demand may persist, but successful negotiations of the US$3 billion IMF package may offset some of the pressures.
In the interbank market, the cedi depreciated by 53.83 percent, 45.50 percent and 46.84 percent against the dollar, pound and the euro respectively on a year-to-date basis. This was against an appreciation of 3.54 percent against the euro and a depreciation of 2.38 percent and 2.57 percent against the dollar and pound respectively during the same period in 2021.
Historically, the cedi was weaker in 2022 on a year-to-date and monthly basis compared to the same period from 2017-2021. Also, the cedi was more volatile during the first 226 transaction days in 2022 compared to the same period from 2017-2021.
In reference to the major trade partners’ currency movements, the Ghana cedi depreciated by 36.6 percent in nominal trade weighted terms and 35.6 percent on forex transaction weighted terms in October 2022.
This compares with 0.28 percent and 0.27 percent depreciation in nominal trade weighted terms and nominal foreign exchange transaction weighted terms over the same period in 2021.
In real bilateral terms, the Ghana cedi depreciated by 32.4 percent, 34.9 percent and 38.1 percent against the US dollar, euro and the pound sterling during October 2022. Comparatively, for the same month in 2021, the Ghana cedi’s real exchange rate depreciated by 0.6 percent, 0.4 percent and 2.3 percent against the dollar, the euro and the pound sterling respectively, over the same period in 2021.
The Ghana cedi depreciated by 34.8 percent and 32.7 percent in real trade weighted terms and real forex transaction weighted terms in October 2022. These compare with a depreciation of 0.6 percent and 0.6 percent in real trade weighted terms and real FX transaction weighted terms respectively for the same period in 2021.
