By Adnan Adams Mohammed
Institutional energy investors and transport operators are bracing for market movements in the second pricing window of September 2026, as domestic Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) navigate a sharp global crude price rally that threatens to spark fresh inflationary pressures across Ghana’s transport and logistics supply chains.
Projections from the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) indicate that retail fuel prices could climb significantly starting Wednesday, September 16, driven by a surge in global crude oil prices from $89.30 to $103.07 per barrel.
According to COPEC’s market assessment, petrol is expected to increase by 4.24% to sell at an average of GH¢16.26 per litre, while diesel faces a steeper 10.23% jump to GH¢19.07 per litre. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is similarly projected to rise to roughly GH¢15.32 per kilogramme.
COPEC noted that the anticipated retail pump increases come despite a slight strengthening of the local currency, which appreciated marginally by 0.29% against the US dollar from GH¢11.52 to GH¢11.48 during the window. The primary cost driver remains the international Free on Board (FOB) price of refined products, with petrol and diesel FOB prices surging 10.08% and 12.33% respectively.
GOIL Explores Absorption Strategy to Tame the Market
State-aligned market leader GOIL PLC is considering strategic options to cushion domestic consumers and maintain market share, even as global crude benchmarks breach the $100 mark.
Speaking on Joy News’ PM Express Business Edition, GOIL Group CEO and Managing Director Edward Bawa confirmed that the company will announce its official pricing stance by September 16, as leadership evaluates various scenario models to absorb part of the cost shock.
”Prices going up does not necessarily mean that at the pumps it will go up. It again depends on what strategy you are using,” Bawa stated. “GOIL will definitely find a way of trying to tame the market, and in doing that, by the 16th of September, you will know.”
Addressing the tension between commercial returns and market leadership, Bawa emphasized that protecting consumer purchasing power remains a key objective alongside cost recovery. “We do not know what the figures will look like… but what I can assure Ghanaians is that we will always want to be on their side,” he said, adding that “in as much as we need to at least cover our costs, we need to ensure that our actions also go to ameliorate the effects of increases in prices for them.”
Transport Fare Speculation and Macro Stability
The anticipated pump price increases have triggered demands from the Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU) for a 30% upward review in public transport fares. However, energy market analysts and GOIL leadership contend that a fare hike of that magnitude is unwarranted under current macroeconomic conditions.
Bawa pushed back against the transport union’s demands, highlighting that exchange rate stability should mitigate overall operational cost increases for commercial drivers.
”I understand GPRTU as a union body that the parameters considered in lorry fares are not only fuel. There is also the issue of the exchange rate because of spare parts… insurance and all other things that come into it,” Bawa explained. “You realise that over the period, whilst prices of crude oil are going up, you have a fairly good situation within the country; you have a situation where the cedi and everything is still very fairly stable.”
He added: “It is unfair that anytime there’s an increase in fuel prices, you have lorry commercial drivers at [a rush] to increase… GOIL, as a company, must also be seen to be making the work of GPRTU and all other driver unions a bit easier for them to be able to insist on their drivers not to increase.”
Investor Outlook
For energy sector equity analysts, GOIL’s upcoming pricing decision presents a key test of margin management versus market volume protection. While holding pump prices steady could compress short-term gross margins for OMCs, market strategists note that absorbing part of the price shock could expand GOIL’s retail market share against private competitors forced to pass on full FOB cost increases.
Investors will monitor Wednesday’s pricing releases across major forecourts to gauge how effectively oil distributors balance corporate profitability against broader macroeconomic inflation targets.
