Tag: Macroeconomics

  • Accra is 8th most expensive city in Africa in 2026 – New Ranking

    Accra is 8th most expensive city in Africa in 2026 – New Ranking

    Accra has been ranked the eighth most expensive city in Africa in 2026, highlighting the persistent cost-of-living pressures facing Ghana despite ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation efforts.

    New data from Numbeo’s 2026 Cost of Living Index places the capital 8th out of 22 major African cities, with a cost of living index of 36.6, positioning it ahead of several North and East African capitals.

    Although Accra does not top the continental list, it sits firmly within the upper tier, reflecting elevated household expenses relative to average income levels.

    Globally, Accra remains far below major cities in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, but within emerging and frontier markets, it continues to be a costly city for residents earning local wages.

    Abidjan leads the African ranking with a cost of living index of 45.2, followed by Addis Ababa at 42.6. South Africa’s major cities, including Pretoria, Johannesburg and Cape Town, also dominate the higher end of the table.

    Accra’s position ahead of cities such as Nairobi, Tunis and Cairo underscores the structural cost challenges confronting urban households in Ghana.

    A breakdown of the components reveals the main sources of pressure. Accra’s groceries index of 42.4 is among the highest in Africa, surpassing many larger economies and pointing to persistent food inflation, supply chain constraints and currency pass-through effects.

    Restaurant prices are likewise elevated, with a restaurant price index of 39.1, comparable to Abidjan and Johannesburg.

    Rent costs, however, remain relatively moderate. Accra’s rent index stands at 11.4, lower than cities such as Kigali, Addis Ababa and Cape Town.

    This suggests that housing is not the primary driver of the city’s overall expense levels. Instead, everyday consumption and food-related costs are placing a heavier burden on households.

    One of the most striking indicators is Accra’s purchasing power index of 12.7, among the weakest on the continent.

    This means incomes in Ghana’s capital buy significantly less than in peer cities. In contrast, purchasing power indices in South Africa exceed 100.

    The gap explains why cost pressures are felt more acutely in Ghana, even as headline inflation shows signs of easing.

    Within West Africa, Accra ranks as the second most expensive city, behind only Abidjan. While Abidjan’s higher costs reflect stronger domestic demand and industrial activity, Accra’s position is more closely linked to currency depreciation, high import dependence and lingering inflationary effects following Ghana’s recent debt crisis.

    Other West African capitals fall much lower on the index, reinforcing Accra’s status as one of the region’s costliest urban centres.

    For businesses, this has implications for wage negotiations, operating costs and consumer purchasing power. For policymakers, it sharpens the focus on food supply chains, transport costs and productivity-enhancing reforms.

    Across the continent, the Numbeo data reveal wide variations. Cities such as Cairo, Alexandria and Giza sit at the lower end of the cost spectrum, partly due to subsidised food and energy.

    Southern African cities, while more expensive, are cushioned by higher purchasing power.

    For Ghana in 2026, Accra’s ranking presents a mixed picture. The capital is not among the world’s most expensive, but within Africa and particularly within West Africa, it remains a high-cost city with limited income buffers.

    As economic recovery continues, lowering the cost of essentials and boosting real incomes will be critical to translating macroeconomic gains into improved living standards.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Ghana’s improving macroeconomic stability convinces Fitch to revise growth forecast to 4.9%

    Ghana’s improving macroeconomic stability convinces Fitch to revise growth forecast to 4.9%

    Ghana’s economic prospects are looking up, with Fitch Solutions revising the country’s 2025 growth projection upward to 4.9 percent from its earlier projection of 4.2 percent.
    As contained in its September 2025 Monthly Outlook, the 0.7% optimistic upward revision is driven by improving macroeconomic stability, supported by easing inflation and a relatively firm cedi.
    This is 0.5% more than the Government of Ghana’s projection of 4.4% as captured in the 2025 Budget: 0.6% higher than the World Bank’s revised estimate of 4.3% and 0.9% higher than the International Monetary Fund’s growth projection of 4.0%.
    Fitch’s revision signals renewed investor optimism about Ghana’s economic prospects, anchored on improving price stability, resilient agriculture, and stronger policy credibility.
    Ghana’s economy remains on a steady recovery path, despite challenges such as fiscal consolidation, still high lending rates, and flat oil production. The stable currency and lower global energy prices are expected to boost consumer confidence and domestic demand.
    A key driver of the economy, the agricultural sector, has been a top performer, expanding by 8.0% over the one year up to July 2025, driven by improved agricultural output. This growth is expected to continue, contributing to the country’s economic stability.
    Challenges Ahead:
    Meanwhile, some economists warn that sustaining the momentum will depend on fiscal restraint, continued structural reforms, and a stable exchange rate environment and have therefore urged the economic managers to diversify Ghana’s economic production base to generate sustainable growth, citing the need to support local farmers and drive demand for Ghanaian produce.
    “Our production base is too narrow. We import almost everything. And as the growing middle class comes up, we are becoming much more import dependent rather than self-sufficient”, Professor Festus Ebo Turkson said while speaking during a UK-Ghana Chamber of Commerce and Deloitte Ghana seminar last week, cautioning that, Ghana’s economy remains too dependent on imports and vulnerable to external shocks.
    Prof. Turkson argued that diversifying Ghana’s economy production base starts with supporting local farmers and driving deliberate demand for Ghanaian produce. This demand, he said, must not be left to market forces but should be intentionally cultivated through government policies.
    “Adding value to and demanding local produce will boost their productivity. Once we produce enough for export, we can then produce for import substitutes,” he noted.
    This falls directly in line with the call made by the Government Statistician on the government to expand local food production, maintaining effective policy coordination among others to anchor the current success in achieving single-digit inflation.
    Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu emphasised that the achievement, while significant, is only the beginning.
    “We can actually do this by continuing to do what we are doing, which is keeping the inflation down,” he said on Channel One TV’s The Point of View on Wednesday October 8, adding “This will include keeping public spending discipline, supporting local food production and also maintaining policy coordination.”
    He warned against complacency, noting that although inflation has fallen, prices are still rising just at a slower pace.
    “This is not the time to relax at all. In fact, inflation of 9.4% still means that on average, we are seeing the general price level increasing by 9.4% between September of last year and September of this year,” he explained.
    Dr. Iddrisu described the return to single-digit inflation as progress, but said the real challenge now is ensuring that it can be sustained over the long term.
    On human capital, Prof Turkson explained that Ghana’s human resource quality has improved from a “low” to a “moderate” scale over the past two decades a good foundation for light manufacturing.
    “What we need now is to tailor education to the needs of industry,” he said, calling for investment into soft infrastructure to enhance youth training and promote the use of appropriate, labour-intensive technologies.
    Incentivizing firms to create jobs
    Prof Turkson further suggested that providing incentives for firms that adopt technology while creating jobs would guarantee a steady stream of revenue needed to fuel further growth.
    “This is the way we can develop. That is what we call transformation,” he concluded.
    Enhancing Ghana’s investment climate
    Meanwhile, Cheryl Otoo, a Senior Manager at Deloitte Ghana, highlighted Ghana’s regulatory complexity and infrastructure deficits as two of the biggest constraints to investment. To this, Wisdom Kpano, Partner at Deloitte Ghana, recommended that the government channel resources into agriculture and agro-processing, renewable energy, and oil and gas – sectors with high potential for inclusive growth.
    Also, Nicolas Jørgensen Gebara, CEO of the European Chamber of Commerce in Ghana, pointed to mining and digital transformation, especially in the context of the government’s 24-Hour Economy Policy, while Osman Aziz, Senior Investment Officer at Venture Capital Trust Fund, underscored the need to bridge the gap between education and industry needs.
    For Prof. Turkson, resolving these systemic bottlenecks and creating an enabling environment for private sector growth must be central to government policy.
    Outlook
    The Cedi’s appreciation has strengthened Ghana’s credit outlook, with the debt-to-GDP ratio falling below 50% for the first time in years. Bank of Ghana Governor, Dr. Johnson Asiama ,has noted, expressing optimism that the reforms underway will consolidate gains made so far and make the cedi the currency of choice for domestic transactions
    While Fitch expects growth to hold at around 5.0% in 2026, underpinned by falling inflation, anticipated monetary easing, and increased public expenditure as Ghana’s IMF-supported programme winds down, the World Bank projects growth to strengthen further to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, underscoring a positive medium-term outlook.
    Also, as Fitch projects inflation to decline to 8.0% by the end of 2025, down from 11.5% in August, marking the lowest rate in four years, the World Bank expects Ghana’s inflation to close 2025 at 15.4%, a projection that contrasts with the official rate of 9.4% as at September 2025, down from 21.5% a year earlier.
    The Bank’s forecast appears conservative, given the country’s recent disinflation trend.
    Nonetheless, the report expressed optimism that inflation will continue easing, dropping to 9.4% in 2026.
    However, the Bank of Ghana, in its latest Monetary Policy Report, also reaffirmed expectations for inflation to remain within the single-digit range by year-end.
    By Adnan Adams Mohammed
  • Economic gains impressive, but borrowing costs remain a concern  – Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu

    Economic gains impressive, but borrowing costs remain a concern – Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu

    Former Majority Leader Osei Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu has commended the government for the recent improvement in Ghana’s macroeconomic indicators, describing the strengthening of the Cedi against major currencies and the drop in inflation to 9.4% as a “stupendous achievement.”

    Speaking on Channel One TV’s The Point of View with Bernard Avle on Monday, October 6, 2025, Mr. Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu highlighted the significance of the economic gains but stressed that more work remains to ensure the benefits reach ordinary Ghanaians.

    “What should concern us now is the cost of borrowing because it is not reflecting in that. Is there anything wrong? Because necessarily it should translate into that. If the interest rate is still hanging up there it means some of the fundamentals are not talking to each other and we need to interrogate each other,” he said.

    The former lawmaker also credited part of the current economic stability to the international reserves left by the previous administration, noting that over US$9 billion in reserves helped buoy the country’s financial position.

    While he praised the government for steering the economy in a positive direction, Mr. Kyei-Mensah-Bonsu emphasised the need for continued vigilance and effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to sustain the gains.

    The Bank of Ghana’s latest Monetary Policy Report indicates a decline in average lending rates, which have eased from 26.6% to 24.2%.

    Yields on money market instruments are also showing a downward trend. For example, the 91-day Treasury bill rate fell from 13.4% at the end of July 2025 to 10.3% in August.

  • BoG data shows strong macroeconomic

    BoG data shows strong macroeconomic

    Latest data from the Bank of Ghana indicates a stronger recovery of almost all macroeconomic indicators beating official projections so far as at half-year 2025.

    The remarkable growth has been brought about by improved real sector productivity, prudently tight fiscal, and monetary stances and the improved performance of the external sector.

    The central bank attributes this trend to improved supply conditions, relative exchange rate stability, and tight monetary policy management.

    The Bank’s data showed that high-frequency real sector indicators as measured by its Composite Index of Economic Activity, CIEA – point to a sustained pickup in economic activity during the first quarter.

    “This momentum is being driven by declining inflation, improved banking sector performance, and a strengthening cedi”, the Governor, Dr Johnson Asiama told journalists at the Monetary Policy Committee press briefing last week.

    The drastic drop in headline inflation to 13.7 percent in June 2025, down from 18.4 percent in May, has resulted in the lowest inflation rate since December 2021.

    The banking sector continued to demonstrate resilience, with the Bank’s Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) showing consistent asset growth, stronger solvency ratios, improved liquidity, higher profitability, and better operational efficiency in the first half of the year.

    Ghana’s external sector performance has also improved significantly.

    The country recorded a current account surplus of US$3.4 billion in the first half of 2025, it’s highest on record.

    Gross International Reserves reached US$11.1 billion at the end of June, enough to cover 4.8 months of imports of goods and services.

    The Ghanaian cedi posted impressive gains against major international currencies.

    As of July 25, 2025, the cedi had appreciated by 40.7 percent against the US dollar, 31.2 percent against the British pound, and 24.2 percent against the euro reflecting improved confidence in the local currency and macroeconomic stability.

    In response to the favourable economic outlook, the Bank of Ghana reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 300 basis points to 25.0 percent.

    This move is expected to support further economic expansion and ease credit conditions in the second half of the year.

     

    Adnan Adams Mohammed

  • Macroeconomic indicators to worsen in Ghana, Nigeria through 2024 – Audit firm

    IMF

     

    Adnan Adams Mohammed

     

    An international accounting and auditing firm, Deloitte, has indicated that, macroeconomic indicators (inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and debt to GDP) to remain high throughout the rest of 2024 in Ghana and Nigeria.

     

    The the two giants and the entire West African macroeconomic environment remain challenging due to several factors, prominent ones being high inflation, a high interest rate environment, currency weakness, and elevated debt levels.

     

    The worsening economic conditions erodes the purchasing power of consumers while deteriorating standard of living and also increasing cost of doing business in the sub-region. As remarked by Deloitte, both households and businesses are already implementing belt-tightening measures to survive.

     

    “The resulting effect of these macroeconomic headwinds on productivity and overall aggregate demand is likely to stall the region’s economic growth for the year”, Deloitte said in its West Africa economic outlook, August 2024 report.

     

    “In July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2024 growth forecast for Nigeria to 3.1% from its April forecast of 3.3%. The IMF also reduced sub-Saharan Africa’s growth forecast to 3.7% from 3.8% in April due to the downward revision in Nigeria’s growth outlook. Meanwhile, the IMF projects Ghana’s economy will grow 2.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025.”

     

    The report indicated that around 50 countries across the world are heading to the polls this year—or have already done so—including West African countries.

     

    As Ghanaians gears towards the December polls, the current state of the economy and citizens’ welfare will factor heavily into how voters evaluate campaign promises and determine the next leader of the nation, an economy heavily dependent on cocoa and gold. The election outcome will weigh on policy direction, as well as investor and market sentiment.

     

    “West Africa’s economic output has been limited by the rising cost of goods and services, leading to an increase in interest rates as monetary authorities attempt to rein in inflation. Nigeria and Ghana have also been facing currency volatility, which has had a severe impact on their ability to import raw materials and equipment required to boost output. In the first six months of the year, the Nigerian naira has lost over 40% of its value, and the Ghanaian cedi over 20% of its value against the US dollar,” it said.

     

    In the case of Nigeria, it said the oil-rich country’s economy grew by 2.98% year on year in the first quarter of 2024. Although faster than the corresponding period in 2023, when the economy grew 2.31%, it marked a slowdown from an even faster growth rate of nearly 3.5%, seen in the fourth quarter of 2023.

     

    Major growth drivers in the first quarter of 2024 include the finance and insurance sector, which grew 31.24% year on year, and the water supply, sewage, waste management, and remediation sector, which grew by 6.95%. The oil and gas sector—the country’s economic mainstay—grew by 5.7%, after a year of contraction. The agriculture sector, on the other hand, continued to trudge along with a growth rate of 0.18%.

     

    The sluggish pace of growth is indicative of multiple factors, including reduced spending and investment. Consumer spending has declined significantly due to rising consumer product prices. Investment spending in the country has also dwindled, primarily due to foreign exchange difficulties that have partly contributed to the exit of several multinational corporations.

     

    Ghana, compared to Nigeria, appears to have stronger growth prospects, the report said.

     

    Its economy grew by 4.7% year on year in the first quarter of 2024, driven by rapid 6.8% year-on-year growth in the industrial sector. The agriculture and services sectors grew at a slower pace of 4.1% and 3.3% year on year, respectively. The country is recovering from a debt-induced crisis, following the government’s ongoing restructuring of its US$30 million debt. The implementation of monetary policy measures by the Bank of Ghana has also helped reduce inflation. Ghana has been able to secure approval for two tranches of IMF disbursements so far this year, bringing cumulative disbursements from the IMF to US$1.56 billion since 2023.