By Adnan Adams Mohammed
For the average shopper at Makola Market or Kejetia, the news headlines last week might feel like a different reality.
The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) has just announced that headline inflation has plummeted to 3.8% for January 2026 the 13th consecutive monthly decline and the lowest rate since the 2021 rebasing.
On paper, Ghana is a macroeconomic superstar. But on the ground, the common refrain remains: “Why are my groceries still so expensive?”
Economic experts are now stepping forward to bridge the gap between these stellar statistics and the daily struggles of the Ghanaian consumer. Their message is clear: do not confuse a slowing car with one that is moving in reverse.
Understanding the “Slow-Motion” Rise
Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Ghana, Prof. Festus Ebo Turkson, clarified last week that a drop in inflation is not a “sale” on goods and services.
“When inflation is reducing, it doesn’t mean prices are reducing,” Prof. Turkson explained during an interview on Joy FM. “It means the rate at which prices are increasing has slowed down compared to last year.”
To put this in perspective, if a bag of sachet water cost GHc 10 last year and inflation was 50%, it would have jumped to GHc 15 At today’s 3.8%, that same bag isn’t going back to GHc10; it is simply moving to GHc15.57 instead of GHc20. The “pain” is still there; it just isn’t intensifying as quickly as it used to.
The “Ginger” Effect: Why Your Basket Varies
While the national average is 3.8%, the reality for your specific pocket depends on what you buy. Prof. Turkson noted that the “basket of goods” used by the GSS is an average. While a stable Cedi might keep the price of imported electronics steady, local supply chain issues might send the price of ginger or onions skyrocketing far beyond the 3.8% average.
Dr. Seyram Kawor, a senior lecturer at the University of Cape Coast (UCC) Business School, attributes the current stability to two main “medicines”:
One is tight monetary policy through the Bank of Ghana’s disciplined approach to interest rates.
The other is improved reserves: External reserves now cover four to five months of imports, providing a buffer that keeps the Cedi steady.
The Silver Lining: Why 3.8% Actually Matters
If prices aren’t going down, why should we celebrate? According to economic analyst Prince Charles Quao, low inflation is the “silent engine” of a healthy economy.
Dr. Kawor noted that food inflation has eased to approximately 3.9%, thanks in part to better harvests. This is a crucial metric for a country where a significant portion of household income is spent on food.
However, the consensus among experts is patience. The benefits of 3.8% inflation are gradual. It creates a “stable floor” upon which the economy can grow. For the average Ghanaian, the relief won’t come from lower prices at the supermarket today, but from the hope that their wages will finally have a chance to catch up with the cost of living.
As Prof. Turkson aptly put it: “Relative to a year ago, the extent to which prices are increasing is certainly lower now.” In the world of economics, sometimes no news or at least, slow news is good news.
