As direct investors, both domestic and foreign, prepare their investment strategies for 2026, the President John Mahama administration’s bid to achieve both import substitution and non-traditional export expansion presents major opportunities. TOMA IMIRHE provides guidance for investors seeking to take advantage of them
The twin 24-Hour Economy and Accelerated Export Development initiatives have been explicitly designed by the President John Dramani Mahama administration to shrink the import bill, scale up value-added manufacturing and triple non-traditional export earnings before the end of this decade. For direct investors, both domestic and foreign, the combination creates a rare window of opportunity comprising predictable state support, new financing lines, trade-facilitation reforms and a clear sectoral focus that together lower some of the old entry constraints to the establishment of industrial and export projects.
A pro-industry, pro-export economic strategy
Two elements of the government’s programme matter most. First, the 24-Hour Economy, (24+), an operational push to keep factories, processing lines and export services running longer hours, deepen logistics throughput and align public services such as customs and inspection of standards, with continuous trade. Second, the Accelerated Export Development Programme (AEDP) which sets explicit targets and special service windows for exporters and value-adding firms, with budgeted institutional support from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Agribusiness. Together they are designed to marry both enhanced supply-side incentives in the forms of financing, infrastructure, and regulatory incentives with widened demand-side access made possible by both domestic and export markets development, particularly linkages to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
President John Mahama has set a key quantitative target: “We aim to grow Ghana’s non-traditional export earnings from US$3.5 billion annually to at least US$10 billion by 2030.” By this, government is sending clear signals that export-oriented projects and those that rely on high local value added for substituting hitherto imported goods will be prioritized for support.
At a practical level, three things are changing for the better for investors.
One is that they now stand to enjoy improved access to development finance and guarantees with Ghana Export-Import Bank (GEXIM) having repositioned to provide instruments such as development loans, guarantees, and both buyer and supplier credit, that bridge typical working-capital and pre-export financing gaps which inhibit manufacturers and agricultural processors.
The second is streamlined, digitalized export processing and trade facilitation, fast-track inspections and special service windows for small and medium sized enterprises targeting specific export products, and these shorten time-to-market and reduce informal transaction costs.
The third is government’s prioritization of import-substitution products such as rice, poultry, cement and select consumer goods – with incentives for domestic processing and local inputs, thus creating demand certainty for investors who can supply domestic markets or export-ready products.
The lowest hanging fruits
The AEDP and 24-Hour Economy initiatives have already identified several “low-hanging” clusters that should be on any investor’s radar.
The most internationally competitive for Ghana is agro-processing. This includes rice milling and parboiling, poultry feed and processing, cassava and yam processing for starch and flour, horticulture value chains and fruit processing with regards to pineapple, mango and avocado in particular. These can replace processed agricultural products currently still being imported or staples exported as low-value raw commodities.
Fast-moving consumer goods offer huge opportunities for investors too. These include packaged foods, edible oils, dairy and beverages where scale and refrigerated logistics can undercut imports. Here again, investors can count on a supportive government.
Import-substitution opportunities with regards to cement, steel and construction inputs, linked to Ghana’s US$10 billion “Big Push” infrastructural development programme and a rapidly expanding real estate sector present veritable investment opportunities too.
Then there are the opportunities in light manufacturing and assembly. Textiles and garments with local value-added for African markets and durable household goods where domestic demand and regional exports overlap, present potentially commercially lucrative options.
Pharmaceuticals and chemicals are targets for local production with Ghana having realized the immense potential that its pharmaceutical industry has for both import substitution and sub-regional export to other West African countries.
Non-traditional agricultural exports are the other area of immediate, clear opportunity. Potential products in this regard include processed cocoa products, cashew, shea derivatives, processed fishery products and horticulture (chilled/frozen) aimed at high-value markets in Europe and intra-African markets under AfCFTA.
Taking advantage of financing windows, risk-sharing and incentives
Investors should seek out deals that can take advantage of Ghana’s financing and investment incentive ecosystem.
At the centre of this is GEXIM’s development loans, export credit, and guarantees which can be used to de-risk offtake and working capital. Commercial banks and local investment financing syndicates can serve as a key source of investment finance too.
But blended financing structures combining local bank and development bank debt financing with equity capital are likely to be the most competitive.
Importantly, there are several tax and non-tax incentives available to investors. AEDP and the Ministry of Finance list special service windows and export acceleration measures. Investors can secure written confirmation on tax treatment, VAT refunds on inputs for exports, and concessions for export zone-based manufacturing based in Export Processing Zones. Public-private procurement and off-taker deals for projects aligned to import substitution – cement for government infrastructure for example – can be structured with government as the off-taker or for anchor orders from private sector clients, in order to reduce demand risk.
Practical guidance for investors
There are several practical steps that will materially improve the odds of success for investors.
One is to do a two-track feasibility analysis, considering both import substitution for domestic markets and exploitation of export markets. This means modelling production plant economics for import substitution in domestic markets at conservative local prices, and separately modelling export returns once product quality and certification are achieved.
Another is to secure local partners for production inputs and aggregate the supply-chain. Successful projects in Ghana rely on aggregators who can manage raw material quality – such as farmers’ cooperatives for cassava, cocoa, shea, and cold-chain logistics for horticulture. Joint ventures with experienced local processors shorten the time needed to learn the ropes.
Investors should plan for acceptably high product standards and certification from day one. Non-traditional export markets demand consistent quality so it is prudent to invest in Ghana Standards Authority compliance, Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) for food, and European Union and United States market certifications early, to avoid costly retrofits.
New business operations setting up in Ghana, going forward, need to design workforce and shift models for 24-hour operations. The 24-Hour Economy encourages longer operating hours and that affects Human Resource management, requiring shift work wage premiums, local security and transport arrangements. These should be factored into unit economics since businesses that can run two or three-shift models will get better asset utilization and faster payback.
Investors are also advised to use trade facilitation and digitized export corridors, integrating their IT systems with the digital customs portals as they roll out to avoid paperwork delays.
Just as importantly as all these, investors should hedge macroeconomic and foreign exchange exposure prudently. While the government is focused on import substitution and expansion of exports, Ghana’s macro-economy remains shaped by fiscal constraints and external financing negotiations. The economy has recently undergone stabilization efforts tied to International Monetary Fund arrangements and faces a delicate balancing act between fiscal consolidation and growth stimulus. Investors should expect some degree of volatility in interest rates and periodic currency pressure, which affect cost and availability of working capital.
It is advisable to include local currency financing where possible, using GEXIM for partial foreign exchange cover, and structuring export receipts to match foreign-denominated obligations.
Investors should also connect with local chambers and industry associations such as the Ghana National Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Association of Ghana Industries, exporters’ associations and the likes to stay ahead of operational changes and to access the AEDP special windows
Planning scalable capital expenditure is also advisable, starting with modular plants that can scale up as the domestic and regional markets pick up.
The successes investors stand to make
For investors, success will be plants operating at over70% capacity with stable domestic or growing export sales – preferably both – fueled by transparent trade-processing with digitized customs, and active risk sharing with GEXIM Bank, Development Bank Ghana or commercial financing partners. President Mahama’s public pledge to prioritize export growth signals a political environment that will reward fast-moving investors who align their projects to the 24H+ and AEDP roadmaps.
Ghana’s new policy architecture offers competitive long-run returns for investors who commit to build local ecosystems founded on raw-material aggregation, skills, standards, and trade logistics. Short-term traders may find themselves victims of macro-economic volatility, but structural investors who align financing, offtake and capacity expansion with multiple shift activities, the AEDP service windows and preferential financing terms, stand to be the winners.
Ultimately, investors who are evaluating a project, are advised to start with a “policy fit” memo which describes how their proposed plant advances import substitution or export growth, listing the exact AEDP or GEXIM instruments they will need, and attaching a six-month roadmap for certification and digitized customs integration. That exercise alone will reveal whether their plan is opportunistic or investable in Ghana’s new policy era.
