Adnan Adams Mohammed
Within the past two-weeks, Fitch Solutions and World Bank, both having globally respected economic views have released separate revised projections of Ghana’s economic growth projection for this year.
Fitch Solutions, last week, reaffirmed its projection that Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product, a measure of Ghana’s total economic output, will grow by 4.2% in 2025. This projection is 0.3% higher than the World Bank’s revised projection of 3.9%.
Ftich’s projection also slightly exceeds the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of 4%, but is far lower than Standard Bank’s projection of 5.4%, the highest growth rate projection so far for Ghana in 2025. The African Development Bank Group meanwhile has projected a 4.3% growth.
The UK-based research and sovereign ratings firm attributes its upbeat outlook to historically high gold prices, which are expected to cushion the Ghanaian economy against a global slowdown triggered by rising tariffs.
“Higher gold prices are anticipated to strengthen government revenue, enhance foreign exchange earnings, and help sustain currency stability”, Fitch said in its latest report.
The report also points out that Ghana is relatively less vulnerable to increasing trade restrictions from the United States, given that its primary exports—gold and crude oil—are not directly affected by the tariffs introduced by President Trump’s administration.
Moreover, the US constitutes only about 4% to 5% of Ghana’s total exports. In contrast, Ghana’s trade relations are more heavily oriented toward China and European countries, particularly Switzerland and the Netherlands.
While acknowledging potential risks from broader global economic headwinds, Fitch Solutions believes the anticipated gains from gold exports will likely offset these challenges by bolstering international reserves and supporting exchange rate stability through central bank interventions.
Fitch’s report on Ghana’s economic growth projection comes a week after the World Bank Group revised its projection downwards by 0.4 percent to 3.9% from its earlier projection of 4.3%.
The Bretton Woods institution explained that; persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing external vulnerabilities are key reasons for the downgrade. Highlighting climate-related risks (particularly, unpredictable weather patterns that have disrupted cocoa production in Ghana), it also warned that, climate-induced events such as floods and droughts continue to erode national budgets across Africa by up to 9%, causing economic setbacks of between 2% and 5% as contained in the April 2025 edition of its Africa’s Pulse report.
In the medium-term, the World Bank remains cautiously optimistic about Ghana’s prospects, projecting a rebound to 4.6% growth in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027. It rates Ghana among a few African economies showing early signs of recovery in 2025.
“Business activity in Mozambique and Ghana rebounded in February 2025,” the Group noted in the new report published last week. “The modest uptick in Ghana was driven by increased demand and a resurgence in new business engagements.”
High-frequency indicators, particularly the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), suggest an uptick in business activity. Ghana’s PMI rose from 47.9 in January to 50.6 in March, indicating improved demand, easing supply bottlenecks, and renewed investor confidence following the December 2024 presidential elections.
Across the region, Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth is expected to rise slightly from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, with further acceleration to 4.3% by 2026–2027.
However, the continent’s overall trajectory remains constrained by weak performances in its three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola. Excluding these, the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2025, rising to 5.7% by 2027.
Still, the World Bank warned that elevated downside risks—including global policy uncertainties, climate shocks, and fiscal constraints—pose ongoing threats to a sustained and inclusive recovery across the continent.
In related news, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply cut its global growth forecast 2.8% in 2025, a significant drop from the 3.3% forecast made in January as contained in the published IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which cites escalating trade tensions with the United States announcing a wave of new tariffs with trading partners responding with their own countermeasures, creating ripple effects across global supply chains and investor sentiment.
It also cites mounting policy uncertainty as the main culprits behind the slowdown.
“Since the release of the January 2025 WEO Update, a series of new tariff measures by the United States and countermeasures by its trading partners have been announced and implemented, ending up in near-universal US tariff hikes on April 2 and bringing effective tariff rates to levels not seen in a century.
“This on its own is a major negative shock to growth. The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook and, at the same time, makes it more difficult than usual to make assumptions that would constitute a basis for an internally consistent and timely set of projections.
“Given the complexity and fluidity of the current moment, this report presents a “reference forecast” based on information available as of April 4, 2025 (including the April 2 tariffs and initial responses), in lieu of the usual baseline. This is complemented with a range of global growth forecasts, primarily under different trade policy assumptions.
“The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity. Under the reference forecast that incorporates information as of April 4, global growth is projected to drop to 2.8 % in 2025 and 3% in 2026—down from 3.3% for both years in the January 2025 WEO Update, corresponding to a cumulative downgrade of 0.8 percentage points, and much below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7%,” part of the report read.
In advanced economies, growth is now expected to slow to 1.4% in 2025, with the U.S. economy seeing a notable downgrade—now projected at 1.8%, nearly a full percentage point below previous estimates.
In emerging markets and developing economies, growth is expected to slow down to 3.7% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026, with significant downgrades for countries affected most by recent trade measures, such as China. Global headline inflation is expected to decline at a pace that is slightly slower than what was expected in January, reaching 4.3% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, with notable upward revisions for advanced economies and slight downward revisions for emerging market and developing economies in 2025.
The IMF flagged intensifying downside risks, warning that a deeper trade war, rising financial instability, and fragile policy buffers could worsen the economic landscape. Vulnerable emerging markets could face capital flight, currency pressures, and increasing debt burdens.
The Fund also noted that a reversal or de-escalation of current trade policies could offer a reprieve and potentially revive global growth.
“Intensifying downside risks dominate the outlook. Ratcheting up a trade war, along with even more elevated trade policy uncertainty, could further reduce near- and long-term growth, while eroded policy buffers weaken resilience to future shocks. Divergent and rapidly shifting policy stances or deteriorating sentiment could trigger additional repricing of assets beyond what took place after the announcement of sweeping US tariffs on April 2 and sharp adjustments in foreign exchange rates and capital flows, especially for economies already facing debt distress.
“Broader financial instability may ensue, including damage to the international monetary system. Demographic shifts and a shrinking foreign labor force may curb potential growth and threaten fiscal sustainability. The lingering effects of the recent cost-of-living crisis, coupled with depleted policy space and dim medium-term growth prospects, could reignite social unrest. The resilience shown by many large emerging market economies may be tested as servicing high debt levels becomes more challenging in unfavorable global financial conditions.
“More limited international development assistance may increase the pressure on low-income countries, pushing them deeper into debt or necessitating significant fiscal adjustments, with immediate consequences for growth and living standards. On the upside, a de-escalation from current tariff rates and new agreements providing clarity and stability in trade policies could lift global growth,” it added.
The report calls for coordinated policy action, urging nations to work together to restore predictability in trade, strengthen debt sustainability, and address long-term structural challenges like demographic shifts and migration.
